September changes, including 3 fewer RJs
 

Updated fall schedule loaded, primarily with RJ changes. They have chosen not to backfill the three ER3 aircraft leaving the fleet at this point, wihch means cutbacks.

ATW, BDL and SDF end after Labor Day.

Upgrade from E135 to E145
--All remaining flights to GRR, BNA, STL, CLE
--Two of three FNT, GRB

--STL is decreasing from 3x to 2x but will be all E145
--FNT morning flight moves to a business-better 9:00am, and the two PM flights upgrade to E145
--CLE upgrades to E145
--1x additional flight upgraded from E135 to E145 to GRR, GRB, DAY, BNA

The only E135 flying left are 2x each to RHI, MBL and IND, and 1x each to FNT, GRB and DSM.

The only non-RJ change I've seen so far is that the morning MKE-DFW-MKE is being upgraded to E190.

From what I've heard, the business routes -- especially the ones where FL* is ended -- may get added capacity if demand and fares are strong enough, but that's a wait-and-see circumstance. As E145 come out of CO* service, they have some flexibility. They want to see how much increased fares affect traffic before they consider adding capacity.

Seeing ATW go is something of a landmark, since it was the original home of Midwest for the first few years of life. But sadly, it has often been near the bottom of the barrel for the feeder markets on loads and yields.

Certainly I am not happy that RJ flying is being reduced, but the cost of fuel raises the bar on what RJ's can make money doing.

It's sad to see yet another round of cutbacks in MKE.

Since Republic began restoring the former Midwest network, we've seen BDL, RDU, ATL, SDF, SFO, and LAX come and go. It appears as if CUN is not returning, either.

I was wondering when ATW would be cut. Given that Frontier added DEN-GRB service there was really no need to serve two airports in the same general area. For whatever reason, that route seems to have fallen apart over the last few years.

How many flights will MKE have on peak days come September? It would be interesting to see how much they've cut back in DEN and MCI this fall as well.

That makes sense. I was spot checking fares a few days ago and was still seeing sub-$100 fares (o/w) MKE-PIT well after September 6, so I don't think they have formulated how they are going to respond to the OO removal, but one would think they'll start pushing these fares up slightly to see where the demand curve is.

At least they've followed through in trying to restore some of these. Maybe we'll see them again in the future if things ever stabilize.

I don't think they've had too many cutbacks in DEN or MCI. I know there were some frequency adjustments to some West coast markets but I don't think any routes have been discontinued. I do wonder if in the future if MKE fares normalize and DEN continues to go south if they would shift some of the connecting capacity to MKE.

Certainly I understand the disappointment at seeing these further cuts. However, Frontier does not have the luxury at this point of subsidizing markets which are the worst performers. The restructuring goal is to have an airline that can stay out of the red even with net fuel cost at $140/bbl oil. To say that’s a lofty goal is an understatement, but the excuse of loss caused by high fuel doesn’t make the loss any less real.

It’s true that many of the cuts at Milwaukee are routes that were restored after the big YX pullback of 2008. And the comparison is temping, then to suggest F9 is on the same pathway. Well, the reason we’re seeing many of the same routes cut is that the marginal MKE routes in 2011 are largely the same ones which were most marginal in 2008. Nothing has fundamentally changed about MKE-SDF to up the high-yield business traffic between 2008 and 2011, for example. Another one…MKE-west coast markets have had crappy yields since long before AirTran competition made them among the worst in the nation and they still do. So when Republic came in restored some cut Milwaukee flying, those are many of the same markets restored. Now that they are trying to stem losses, it’s again those same marginal markets at the bottom of the rankings where the cuts come from.

If my back-of-the-envelope tally is right, MKE will be at 76/day in September. The peak-day seats appear to be 182 per day fewer with this change, with some of the capacity reduction offset by upgrades from E135 to E145 elsewhere, and the E170 to E190 upgrade on the morning DFW flight. If I have the time I’d like to run capacity comparisons, but I’m on the road again this week and we’ll see.

Also I’d like to do comparison on DEN, too. There have been some cuts there as well, but I’m not sure how many. MCI’s cuts are primarily that the 2nd LAX and BOS trips were pulled, and of course CMH.

If/when I do have the chance to do those tallies, I'll post 'em.

IND is actually going 1x E135 on Sep 13th (the other 1x is being upgraded to E145). This leaves just two lines of E135 flying to support the two EAS routes.

At least as far as RDU goes, they did restore the service but it was not as good as they could have to assure the service worked. The first thing was that the 2 RDU flights connected to exactly 5 cities out of the entire network. That didn't make much sense. The second thing is that there was no service to MCI or DEN, which has larger O&D than MKE. The third thing is that there was no advertisement....

I have to agree with you. The RDU-MKE flight times weren't the greatest and really didn't connect to all that much. There probably is very little traffic to/from places like GRB, ATW, or DSM. Even DEN passengers only had one flight option going to RDU. Not very appealing. Frontier would have been far better off offering something like 1x daily to MKE, 1-2 x daily to MCI (covers local traffic and connections to Texas, Denver, and the west Coast) and 2x daily to DEN. Not only would this capture a better mix of traffic, it would have lowered station costs and allowed for better aircraft rotation/utilization.

As far as advertising goes, I was surprised to see that the airport didn't even highlight the Frontier flights. I was in Raleigh this past spring visiting family. While waiting for my bags, I watched the TV monitors as they highlighted all of the new service offered at the airport. I kept waiting for some mention of Frontier flights but nothing ever appeared. It seemed strange but maybe RDU already knew Frontier was pulling the plug on MKE flights.

It's sad to see ATW go in part because it was the original home of Midwest Express. It's not a huge loss though as GRB is close by and Frontier offers DEN flights from there as well.

BDL is a bit of a head scratcher. I had heard loads and yields were good (but maybe not good enough to survive in this high oil environment). IMO, BDL in general could have performed better if there was a DEN connection as well.

On the bright side, I'm glad to finally see some sanity starting to return to MKE in terms of capacity offered. Hopefully yields will return to levels that will allow Frontier to restore at least some of the cuts.

I don't think fewer flight options, lower capacity or higher fares are a bright side at all! If I were running an airline, I'd feel differently of course. A more sane environment is more sustainable for the long-term future of the airlines that serve MKE.

But, overall, it's not good for customers.

Just had to needle you, Blue. I hope you're doing well ;)

Thanks, 'Hoss. All is well on this side of the pond.

Indeed, glad to see you're still actively participating in this forum.

It is a bit of a shock to see ATW go, the cost of flying out of there (on most any airline) has what has felt to be the highest. Although it never made sense to go to ATW to fly to MKE since it is less than a 2 hour drive down 41. (Then again it doesn't make much sense for UA or AA to fly MKE-ORD, but they seem to make it work... sorta)

UA and AA have significantly more potential connections in ORD than F9 has in MKE. UA and AA aren't flying ORD-MKE for the locals.

oh i very much know that, the 6:15 UA MKE-ORD flight has been packed every (GRB-ORD is also similar) most time i've been on it.

The amount of WI and IL plates in remote lots seem to be pretty equal, so they may not be for the locals but for connecting traffic, they're still running it. Though, I wish that UA was change it from a CRJ to an ERJ.

With F9's situation I wouldn't be surprised to see mainline UA appear in the horizon. If only to ORD and possibly DEN.

With that flight as short as it is, it could be a flying boxcar with all pax standing up and it really wouldn't be all that uncomfortable, at least not to a noticeable degree. It's a nice pleasant view out the window and for whatever reason, it's often oversold (giving VDB opportunities).

As for "reduced service" to/from MKE, UACO has upgraded 2 of the daily IAH runs to CR7's from E145's which is a welcome change. Now I get bumped up to F on this elite-lite route every time, while before I was spending 2.5 hours in a cramped flying pencil (even if I was lucky enough to nab 12A).