No parroting from me in posts from this morning and afternoon:

http://www.dansdeals.com/archives/50288
http://www.dansdeals.com/archives/50351

But they did have a reason: quite a few airlines have developed a bad habit of making big negative changes to their programs with little or no advance warning. The results is what we saw during the last 24 hours: a frequent flyer community that panics at the slightest hint a major devaluation may be coming.

I suspect the rumors of an impending BA devaluation would not have been so widely circulated if not for the airlines' own past actions.

^

Yeah that's a good point, we've come to expect the worst since we keep getting the shaft.

And lots of people whose first impression of VFTW is that he has no idea of what he's talking about. Sorry, I can't dismiss his screwup on this. Gary's an adult who holds and has held jobs in the real world (unlike Lucky and MMS) so I hold him to a pretty high bar on accuracy since he should understand the values of research and reasoned analysis unlike some kid who just posts whatever he can find so that he can pay the bills and fund his travels through his credit card links.

In addition, he doesn't hide his light under a bushel basket ("hey, see me on ABC," "I coined the term SkyPesos," "Chris Elliott is an idiot," "that magazine is wrong in their rankings of airline FF programs," "Hyatt is THE most valuable hotel program--no matter what," or "the bumbling, incompetent, venal government is holding Uber down AGAIN"). His speculation was unnecessary and badly thought through--he could have reported the rumor, said that nothing was certain but that he'd do more research, and promised to report back with further and more accurate information. And it really had to gall him that the eventually accurate information broke not on MP, his little baby, but on FT from BA folks who know their stuff.

Gary's BS detector was actually on--"The award chart has gotten astronomically expensive for short distance flying — so expensive I almost questioned whether it was a mistake"--but he didn't listen or listened selectively. He even bragged about his contacts with certain airlines--while acknowledging he doesn't have those contacts with BA--but it never seemed to occur to him to use his contacts at AA to see if he could confirm the changes. Given that BA and AA work pretty closely together, that seems a possible and reasonable approach. And, of course, because MP has never really reached a point where it has developed into something much different from FT with its own flavor, there were no BA experts at MP he could contact to get information.

But that approach would have required actual work. Instead, we get this:
Of course, it turns out that IB has had these differences for nearly three years, that there hasn't been a stampede of transferring from IB to BA, and that both programs don't move in the lockstep that Gary claims. That kind of analysis I expect from some of the goofballs around FT ("another awful BA devaluation"), but if you're a "go-to" guy with a kind of supposed expertise about travel, the airline and hotel industries, and general economics, you've undermined (again!) your own credibility.

As I said in my previous post, Gary's now most valuable to me when I'm reading information gleaned from one of his airline contacts (with my BS detector turned on high to make sure the wool isn't being pulled over his eyes), or occasionally when he's pushing a credit card (with my BS detector set to maximum gain). I no longer think much of his blog otherwise.

Yes, he got it totally wrong and rushed to publish without doing proper research. That cannot be denied.

What was most disappointing to me though (as I have noted) was his response when his speculation was shown to be totally wrong.

Screw ups happen. Character is found in response to them. That means taking responsibility for your mistakes and promising to try harder in the future.

Instead the 'correction' post ends with the ominous: 'Of course there may well be a reason for them to publish the chart now.'

Rule of holes applies.

Alas.

"Not much parroting" would be more accurate. The first post talks about Iberia "changes" although there weren't any (as the second post acknowledges).

Iwildernorva: One of the more interesting aspects of all this is how FlyerTalk stacks up against the blogs and, as you point out, this time the folks on the BA forum "who know their stuff" came out way, way ahead. (Ctownflyer's blog got also it right.) So I read the blogs -- or at least the better ones with actual original content as opposed to mostly "me, too" credit-card posts -- mostly for entertainment and I read FlyerTalk mostly for hard-core information. If I actually find a great blog post, I'm surprised and delighted. Plus, some of the worst blogs are entertaining as well, but only in a car-wrecks-are-interesting sort of way.

Of course, there'll eventually be a change to BA's award chart, just as there will be to all programs. It's been almost three years since the Avios rollout so changes are probably due. If not now, then by the end of 2015. Those changes are likely to be incremental (6K, 9K instead of 4.5, 7.5, for instance).

Gary's analysis failed to account for three things. First, as previously noted, despite IAG's corporate banner, BA and IB are two different animals (to Willie Walsh's regret). Second, a change to BA's award chart for short-haul redemptions would require decoupling from BA's London calculated redemptions (not impossible to conceive, but a two-step process). Third, BA continues to show interest in expansion in the US market (Austin, Texas started this year and other routes are speculated). That doesn't eliminate the possibility that BA will make changes in the Avios program that will negatively affect Americans--just vastly reduces the likelihood.

Not goofball Internet speculation, but the kind of analysis I expect from a solid travel blog. Just not from VFTW anymore.

Frankly that sort of conversation/speculation is far better suited to an IBB than a blog. @:-)

Folks, you have this entirely wrong. These aren't journalists. Don't hold them to journalistic standards. As much as a lot of bloggers want you to believe that, because credibility brings eyeballs, they just aren't.

Gary is at best a pundit, at worst, a salesman. Often enough, he's a combination of both. I don't know that he tries to hide that, either. His job isn't to deliver you objective, fact-checked news. It's to deliver his opinion and to get you to sign up for credit cards. I'm not saying that as a negative thing about him, either. That's who he is and what he does for a living.

If you've ever wondered why actual journalists balk at bloggers getting press credentials, this is why.

Fair enough, I definitely wasn't perfect. But at least 12 bloggers made posts about burning BA miles due to an imminent devaluation.

In the first post I broke down the hysterics by showing the numerous difference between IB/BA and that I wouldn't be worried about IB changes meaning anything.

Gary made a comment on that post and then made a post responding to that about how it is very worrying.

And then I saw Google Cache had the same IB award chart in their cache from July and got the PM from travellair confirming that IB pricing has been the same way since Avios launched which of course sealed the deal and I made the second post correcting the situation...

Reading the comments on your two posts, yes, your skepticism is evident (and correct). As is your analysis of how VFTW's post was starting a needless panic.

So nice job. ^

^ That's all I was saying. Your posts showed clear evidence of thinking taking place behind the keyboard, rather than just involuntary muscle contractions.

More excuses explanations as to why VFTW was paranoid about a BA change. And in the comments, a reminder about why he still trusts AA.

Again: rule of holes.

How about:

'Ha, even experts like me get it wrong from time to time. And boy did I about BA Avios redemptions. And it appears I started a bit of a viral panic. My bad! I'll dig deeper next time before I start speculating. Lesson definitely learned and I apologize if I needlessly freaked you out!'

Is that really so freaking hard on the ego?

The V in VFTW may now stand for "victim". Distilling a very long post as best I can, it seems that Mr Leff feels he "took a lot of heat" from "British Airways apologists" back in 2011 but he was right then so he might be right again at some point in the future. (Note: when BA next devalues, which at some point it will, he can and almost certainly will point back to today's post.)

Oh, and by the way, he "mistakenly saw possible signs" of a BA devaluation. Not instantly recognisable as humility and definitely several notches quieter than his screaming headline from two days ago ("HOLY SMOKE [...] Iberia Massively Jacks Up Award Rates!").