Predicting OpUps
 

Ok, yes its true that predicting OpUps is like trying to predict the outcome of tomorrow nights game.
Take a look at EK 418 & EK 372, whats the probability of getting an OpUp from J->F or Y->J on those.
Yes accurately predicting OpUps would be impossible without knowing the exact number of Golds, Silvers & Blues on the plane and their Tier Status, to determine the pecking order. Information thats not available to the public.

http://i31.tinypic.com/uphg7.png


How do you try to predict Opups?


http://i32.tinypic.com/64mf04.png

I got op-upped on the DXB-COK leg a few days ago. I saw the gate area was full and since I didn't see the need jam myself in there, I waited outisde until boarding was about to be called. Lo and behold, they upgraded me because the flight was full. I think I will try this strategy again (esp if I don't mind being bumped from the flight).

On a related note, that was my first non-economy flight and even though it was an old 777-200, oh my god, it was so nice. I have seen the promised land and am dreading the trip back to the US in economy even more than usual. Ignorance definitely is bliss. :)

I have done very well on my DXB-BKK & BKK-DXB over the last 2 years but before I went 4 years without a single OP-UG, they will not upgrade unless the flight is full in the lower class, (I think they will also upgrade Y pax so they can accommodate stand-by's).

Another factor to consider is that they have increased capacity with the A380 on the 372/3 route so possibly fewer UG's for a while.

Who gets a a UG is a mystery to me, obviously Gold then Silver but there is more to it because there must be loads of Gold & Silver flying that sector but I seem to do very well.:)

are these flights for 7/16 or 7/17?

OP, are you going to BKK today? i'm going out on 384 tonite.

Its for 7/17 .. on EK 418 tommrow AM

Current score on seatcounter.com
Would checking in online increase the odds? Remember, they assume that there will be noshows up till departure. And someone who checks in online, has a lower probablity of being a noshow, along with the fact that am starting the journey in DXB. I have gotten opups at the gate on previous occasions despite an OLCI... never seen an OLCI upgrade though.

On another note, in the past two months have received about eight opups, I fly out every weekend to BKK or HKG. All opups were at the gate in Dubai, barring one, which was on teh plane HKG>BKK>DXB ... was told to get my ... to F after teh plane landed in BKK

http://i30.tinypic.com/10r1hd5.png

my flight looks full on everything, including J. i'll see what happens and report back my experience.

so you fly out to bkk or hkg every weekend??? wowsers, do you have family there or business that warrants such frequent travel? flying in Y, you'd be spending a minimum of 3000AED (around 3600 for HKG) x 4 weekends/mo. that's a buttload of money!

Its paid for by work and depending on availibility its 90% J other wise end up slumming it out in Y. Last weekend flew out Y because J was full on your flight, came back J. The company travel policy states that F is above my paygrade, so I pray for J availibility and a full house in Y.... :p

wow! just curious if you need to be in bkk or hkg every weekend, why not base you out there instead of dubai?

if i were given the choice of living there or here... oh boy, it's a no-brainer for me.

next time i make the trip out there, maybe we can have a few drinks in T3.

Just checked in online... no opup. Keeping the faith! Maybe at the gate!

Would give an arm, a leg and first born to be based out of HKG... but meh... its a recession. They fired most of the team in BKK , SIN and HKG and send us poor people from DXB there every weekend. Not complaining, as we still have a job while the others don't.
Thank You Recession! :rolleyes:

i just received an email from skywards last night saying that until 30 Sept 09, you can earn 500 bonus miles everytime you check-in online.

woo hoo, 500 miles. thank you skwards. -_-

wonder if they still credit the 500 miles, if you check in online then show up at the checkin desk to lobby for an exit row seat when flying Y :confused:

Whats bucket "I" on EK?
EK418, just opened up bucket "I"

http://i27.tinypic.com/fxcqx5.png

Discounted Business Class...

damn, ek384 is looking all in the red....

Thanks... !
Although even the discounted fare adds up to AED 9235 for J both ways

See if you can change to EK418, in case you are in Y. Looks like OpUp Hour... and if you are J a forced relocation to F against your will looks guaranteed too :D

As of 1730 (+0400 GMT) EK confirmed that there are 11 wait listed pax in Y.

WOWOWOW As of 2223 EK 418 is -63! EK 384 is -87
Thats some overbooking.
dearbee hope you are heading to the airport early... the EK lady on the phone recommended that I show up bright and early and camp in the lounge.

hmmm... unfortunately i'm traveling with a mate and we need to get into bkk asap. every hour counts! ;) and unfortunately we are both in Y. has EK really confirmed there are 11 pax waitlisted in Y? what could the gate agent actually do here? would they ask if anybody be willing to give up their seat for options voucher?

never been bumped off by EK,yet. Well theres always a first time... will post results here if I get bumped off.
Time to hit the sack... cannot afford to oversleep today. The only way of getting out of DXB for BKK tommrow is EK500 to BOM then a CX flight from there. or EK 6200

EK418 overbook status as of 0730 (+0400 GMT)
Y
J
F

EK lady confirms that its heavily overbooked, refused to give out numbers . Asked if I was a staff member, when I said not, she laughed and hung up... LULZ @ EK

OK... got an opup on EK418!
This should be the end of the thread but its not...
So everyone was on the plane, then the FD made an announcment that they are having issues with the flight computers and need to reset. Two resets one with the whole plane being powered down and we were told to get off the plane. Replacment airplane will be available at 1100ish... Keeping fingers crossed because it could be a ratty old A332, the kind EK loves and cherishes.

Shame, the 777 suite was nice.

ahh, back from the weekend.

we ended up making the 03:15 flight but we were told there was a long line of Golds for any OPUP. we were also informed that many of them checked in way ahead of us (probably via online check in) and that was the priority for OpUps. not tier miles? odd...

anyway, we got into BKK fine which was much more important.

Can someone else confirm this?

Quote:
Originally Posted by dearbee
we were also informed that many of them checked in way ahead of us (probably via online check in) and that was the priority for OpUps. not tier miles?

Can someone else confirm this?

I would "suspect" if EK know well in advance who has checked in they can start their processes or "bumping off and OPups" however, I doubt they usually know in plenty of time, in my experience, for OPups, it is when they have had a delayed flight with passengers missing a connection, when they get made to go onto the next available flight, that they start to majorly move people around who were already booked on.

In the past, if I have been praying for an OPup, I usually check www.flightstats.com, to check arrivals into DXB to see which flights, if any have had delays in the previous 6 - 8 hours. I have been OPUpped more times flying OUT of DXB than any other. LHR being a close second, where folk have been on delayed flights into LHR, and these have dropped since the introduction of their direct USA flights.