Help me decode ExpertFlyer seat availability
 

So... curiosity can be dangerous. I bit the bullet and signed up to the EF Premium 5-day trial to look at my upcoming flight and now I'm lost in a sea of buckets.

I'm flying DMM-DXB-MAN on a Business Saver ticket (EK822 27-Aug / EK21 28-Aug). EK website shows I can purchase a miles upgrade for DMM-DXB, but not DXB-MAN. The seat selection shows mostly available seats on EJ822 but only one free seat on EK21, though I've learnt that doesn't necessarily count for anything.

If I search for the flights in one go, ie DMM-MAN with a connection in DXB, it shows the same availability for both legs:
F4 A4 J2 C0 I0 O0 P0 Y1 E0 R0 W0 M0 B0 U0 K0 H0 Q0 L0 T0 V0 X0

But if I split my search as two separate flights, the numbers change:
EK822: F4 A4 J7 C7 I7 O0 P6 Y9 E9 R9 W9 M9 B9 U9 K0 H0 Q0 L0 T0 V0 X0
EK21: F4 A4 J2 C0 I0 O0 P0 Y3 E3 R2 W1 M0 B0 U0 K0 H0 Q0 L0 T0 V0 X0

Can someone help me understand what the above means - specifically, what are my chances of an op-up to F as a Gold? :D

Thanks,

Abhi

First things first, you can't see upgrade classes from an availability search - you need to use the award search. First class reward seats and upgrades are in Z bucket and Business class upgrades and Business Awards are in D class.

EF is currently showing no availability for DMM-DXB-MAN journey because there isnt Z class seats available on both legs, only DMM-DXB has Z class availability.

Based on the inventory you are showing there, your EK822 is quite open (not hugely, but certainly not full) and hence why they have released upgrade seats (in both J and F actually).

Your EK 21 only is allowing 2 seats in Business class to be sold, so its much more full. Economy is also full. If you are Skywards Gold, I would say your chances of Op up to F are pretty high actually as they are likely going to need to move Y-J which is fullish anyway and hence will then move J-F.

Regarding the 2 different inventory displays, its because EK is an OD carrier, for your itin, they are selling DMM-MAN, DXB-MAN and DMM-DXB which all have different pricing and inventory allocations.

Hope this helps. Enjoy your flights and good luck!

I wasn't planning on purchasing an award upgrade, just added the info in case it helped with my query. But there's something new I've learnt today!

Good news, but also potentially bad news - it's a tight connection (90 mins on paper, shorter because DMM-DXB is usually delayed) which I've had to be escorted plane to plane a couple of times via the sneaky unmarked doors through the concourses, so with EK21 being this full they'll have more of a reason to bump me to the next flight (EK17 A380) which appears to be less full and therefore less likely to bump to F :( But hopefully being Gold they'll try to get me on EK21... guess I'll have to wait and see!

Forgive my ignorance - what is an OD carrier?

It does - thank you! ^

OD - Origin Destination, i.e. a carrier that prices its fares based on the origin and destination only and not the intermediate routing.

Sorry, I jumped the gun a little bit, I assumed that since you were at the upgrade awards, you were asking if seats will be released on your whole itin - sorry about that.

If it shows J 2 it is usally about 2 over in J.

Y looks way over. Decent chance of an upgrade if F is empty although its a high status route MAN although probably not at this time of the year.

Don't forget you also don't see things like standby lists and staff load on Expertflyer - I think on EK21, there might be a good chance of an op-up J-F :)

But of course, I would not create an expectation of an op-up because that way lies only disappointment, should it not materialise. After all, people miss their connections all the time...! Also, DXB-UK mileage upgrades are some of the best value uses of miles around, so even if you don't get it, I'd probably do an on-board upgrade...

[QUOTE=eternaltransit;25329324]Don't forget you also don't see things like standby lists and staff load on Expertflyer - I think on EK21, there might be a good chance of an op-up J-F :)

But of course, I would not create an expectation of an op-up because that way lies only disappointment, should it not materialise. After all, people miss their connections all the time...! Also, DXB-UK mileage upgrades are some of the best value uses of miles around, so even if you don't get it, I'd probably do an on-board upgrade...[/QUOTE]

for 21 I wouldnt bother...

I was once on a flight that was way over in Y and I was hoping for J to F.

No upgrade happened because 30 people missed the connection.

M3red- you are making me nervous with "30people missed their connection"!. I am on the EK20 in F with 1h 15m connexion in DXB. Never had such a tight connection. Should I start to prepare for the worst??? Because it will mean an overnight stay should I miss the connecting flight!

That's a tight connection I'm not sure on the dmm flights timings.

I'm sure 8 or 9 /10 you'd make it. You'd probably get an op up on the next flight too.

Thanks m3red. Next sector is also F so no op Up!!!!! I'll just keep my fingers crossed and hope I'm the 8 or 9!!

I've had tight connections of ~45 mins (DMM-DXB delayed) as Y and as J. In Y they'd reallocated my seat before I'd landed, and bumped me to the next flight with no op-up.

In J - different day, same flight, same connection time - I got the personal escort gate to gate. I'm told that they make the extra effort for J/F - so hopefully you'll make it!

Thanks for that. Feel somewhat calmer!!!

Postscript: made the connection with plenty of time, even popped into the lounge. Got to gate and the guy in front of me got a J-F op-up... no such luck for me. Looked at the manifest on board, me and 3 other Golds in J.
No complaints about the J experience though :)

Lots of plats to man too