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-   Emirates | Skywards (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/emirates-skywards-490/)
-   -   Is Emirates a financial scam? (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/emirates-skywards/1627541-emirates-financial-scam.html)

RigpigMalta Mar 18, 2015 5:06 am

I hope the mods close this thread soon...I hate being generalised as....I do not know Doug Clark nor do I want too.....

I think the thread has reached its nadir.

moondog Mar 18, 2015 5:30 am


Originally Posted by RigpigMalta (Post 24525349)
I hope the mods close this thread soon...I hate being generalised as "you foreigners" I do not know Doug Clark nor do I want too.....

I think the thread has reached its nadir.

I had similar thoughts (well, if not lock the thread, simply suspend a certain poster and move the thread to OMNI where people who create new accounts don't have access) yesterday when the racist comments started flying at an unprecedented frequency/intensity.

However, I still find the discussion quite interesting, so I hope we can keep the thread alive in some form. Just my two cents. :)

GUWonder Mar 18, 2015 6:22 am


Originally Posted by iahphx (Post 24522456)
Nice progress today on the Fair Skies campaign. This is obviously a very well funded and sophisticated operation: they're tweeting like mad. :)

They were smart to use AA's CEO Doug Parker as their spokesman. You foreigners who don't know about Doug Parker will quickly learn his genius. Note the following passage from the Financial Times today:

_______________________________

The US airlines are particularly unhappy about the effect of competition on routes between the US and India, where the Gulf carriers have a significant market share.

Doug Parker, American Airlines’ chief executive, told Bloomberg the US carrier would like to fly to India but was unable to do so because Gulf airlines’ fares were so low.

“They’re flying at fares that certainly can’t be profitable,” Mr Parker said. “If you don’t level the playing field, jobs will flow from the US to the Gulf.”

_______________________________________________

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/716ea072-c...#ixzz3UgBHMHQY

Unlike Clark, Parker isn't blustering. This is the real deal, and the real impact of these subsidized flights. He's already got the powerful chairman of the House Transportation Committee demanding action.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0MD1ZW20150317

With the Europeans also moving to impose limits, I don't think Airbus is going to be retooling the A380 engines anytime soon.

Doug Parker is a known criminal law violator. [How many arrests has he had and how many related convictions has he had?]

He's also not very honest. As US airlines have repeatdly backed out of India service on US-flagged metal, it's a laughable notion that AA can necessarily make a huge success of such service again if the ME3 bow down to the all mighty American and European airline masters and submit to being chained like dogs.

DYKWIA Mar 18, 2015 6:23 am


Originally Posted by moondog (Post 24525413)
However, I still find the discussion quite interesting, so I hope we can keep the thread alive in some form. Just my two cents. :)

Exactly my thoughts. The OP started a good debate, but has added nothing since, and seems to be just 'stirring the pot'.

moondog Mar 18, 2015 7:15 am

[Very] early in this thread's life cycle, the mods announced a "let 'em play" position, and have stood by it.

It wasn't until around 2 days ago that things really started to get out of hand. If that trend continues, I believe there will be a change of tune.

I DO NOT think that the mods are taking sides.

FD1971 Mar 18, 2015 8:04 am

I did not really find the time to follow this thread for some days, but I really liked Clark's response re. the losses from fuel hedging etc. in 2007/08

Apparently, they did not only make money from ops., but they were also able to save billions on the side to pay off unexpected losses within a matter of weeks. :D:D:D

Next stop, EK will also relief Greece of its debt after taking over Olympic, experts refer to the GrEKxit already... ;)

DizzyMaid Mar 18, 2015 10:04 am

Surely Emirates would not get involved in any scams.

iahphx Mar 18, 2015 2:14 pm


Originally Posted by eternaltransit (Post 24522538)
I think that's exactly the issue - the thread boils down to how much revenue are these A380 flights to the US actually generating. If they can breakeven over the year, case closed. If not, then they need to show that the rest of their network can be profitable enough and lobby Washington that the losses are not politically unpalatable in an election year.

Obviously, the financial results of those USA flights will be scrutinized. As I understand it, the DOT requires a lot of this info to be made publicly available.

From a purely business perspective, it's a bit odd for Tim Clark not to criticize Etihad and Qatar. I don't think you could find anyone in the industry who thinks those 2 airlines are commercially viable, and the idea that they're not receiving direct subsidies is just ludicrous. Clearly Emirates would benefit hugely if it drove its "imposter" clones out of business.

While you'd be hard pressed to find "industry experts" who think a limitless number of A380s is a good business strategy, there should be a market for one global Middle Eastern airline. I would think that airline would need more 787s and fewer A380s, and significantly increase their passenger density on board, but it could be a plausible business. The idea that there's room for all 3 would be like AA and UA opening a hub in ATL to compete against DL, and then all 3 airlines buying dozens of A380s each. :)

But perhaps politics prevents Clark from attacking his real "competitors."

You want to go where? Mar 18, 2015 3:01 pm


Originally Posted by iahphx (Post 24528166)



While you'd be hard pressed to find "industry experts" who think a limitless number of A380s is a good business strategy,

You do like hyperbole, don't you? 'limitless?' Your arguments would be more effective if you avoided words which are so easily refuted.

Xlr Mar 18, 2015 3:17 pm


Originally Posted by FD1971 (Post 24525987)
I did not really find the time to follow this thread for some days, but I really liked Clark's response re. the losses from fuel hedging etc. in 2007/08

Apparently, they did not only make money from ops., but they were also able to save billions on the side to pay off unexpected losses within a matter of weeks. :D:D:D

Next stop, EK will also relief Greece of its debt after taking over Olympic, experts refer to the GrEKxit already... ;)

If you actually took the time to read the allegation in the dossier, you will see that they cite a book. I spent around 20 minutes today reading the part of the book that they cited - The Secret Club that Runs the World, by Kate Kelly.

It is very non-technical, does not state the full story (and even acknowledges that the details of the transaction were confusing). According to the book, Morgan Stanley made a $4BB USD margin call on Emirates, but the book also says that there multiple instruments sold both ways, and does not mention any of the strike prices or straddle ranges. And it does not mention if, or how, the deal was settled in the end.

It's also worth mentioning here: Margin calls are not immediate and not automatic; they usually have deadlines, and there are agreements in place about what happens if the deadlines for payment are not met. My guess is that no one on this thread is privy to all the details.

Here is what we do know happened that year:
  1. Emirates novated the fuel contracts to ICD
  2. Emirates also gave ICD $1.6BB USD of letters of credit

Clearly, the fuel contracts did not work well for a buyer of fuel such as Emirates during that time. However, ICD also owns ENOC, a seller of fuel, which might have loved these contracts.

So, the real question here is: Was this contract transferred on a commercial basis?

I'm not a finance person, but I find this very interesting. I hope the "full" response from Emirates will include more detail on this.

Edit: Not being a part of the finance industry at all, I actually have a question. How likely is it for an airline to have a single counter-party for all their hedging needs? Just trying to gauge whether there is even more to this story.

Xlr Mar 18, 2015 3:34 pm


Originally Posted by iahphx (Post 24528166)
From a purely business perspective, it's a bit odd for Tim Clark not to criticize Etihad and Qatar. I don't think you could find anyone in the industry who thinks those 2 airlines are commercially viable, and the idea that they're not receiving direct subsidies is just ludicrous. Clearly Emirates would benefit hugely if it drove its "imposter" clones out of business.

...

But perhaps politics prevents Clark from attacking his real "competitors."

Emirates has, in the past, indirectly criticized Etihad and Qatar, by publishing quotes of criticisms of Etihad and Qatar in its public-affairs journal - for example here. Sly, but demonstrates their opinion on this.

Politics is almost certainly involved. Abu Dhabi gave Dubai a $20 billion bailout in 2009. In 2014, they reduced the interest rate to a fixed interest of 1%. Emirates criticizing Etihad right now would be akin to Dubai criticizing Abu Dhabi - not the best idea at the moment.

Kiwi Flyer Mar 18, 2015 3:54 pm


Originally Posted by iahphx (Post 24528166)
Obviously, the financial results of those USA flights will be scrutinized. As I understand it, the DOT requires a lot of this info to be made publicly available.

From a purely business perspective, it's a bit odd for Tim Clark not to criticize Etihad and Qatar. I don't think you could find anyone in the industry who thinks those 2 airlines are commercially viable, and the idea that they're not receiving direct subsidies is just ludicrous. Clearly Emirates would benefit hugely if it drove its "imposter" clones out of business.

While you'd be hard pressed to find "industry experts" who think a limitless number of A380s is a good business strategy, there should be a market for one global Middle Eastern airline. I would think that airline would need more 787s and fewer A380s, and significantly increase their passenger density on board, but it could be a plausible business. The idea that there's room for all 3 would be like AA and UA opening a hub in ATL to compete against DL, and then all 3 airlines buying dozens of A380s each. :)

But perhaps politics prevents Clark from attacking his real "competitors."

The only person in this thread who has claimed to be an industry expert is you, despite declining to respond to reasoned points made by many others. Given the number of times you've played the man not the ball in this thread, I think you indeed have or are engaged by the US3 in this issue.

Perhaps you might like to hold yourself to the same "evidence" standard you demand of others, namely to prove that your comments in this thread are independent of the US3 actions and you have no conflict of interest in this matter?

edy4eva Mar 18, 2015 4:05 pm


Originally Posted by iahphx (Post 24528166)
Clearly Emirates would benefit hugely if it drove its "imposter" clones out of business.

While you'd be hard pressed to find "industry experts" who think a limitless number of A380s is a good business strategy, there should be a market for one global Middle Eastern airline. I would think that airline would need more 787s and fewer A380s, and significantly increase their passenger density on board, but it could be a plausible business. The idea that there's room for all 3 would be like AA and UA opening a hub in ATL to compete against DL, and then all 3 airlines buying dozens of A380s each. :)

But perhaps politics prevents Clark from attacking his real "competitors."

You've got it all wrong, once again.

QR and EY are not imposter clones (not sure why the double quotes). Both are real airlines that employ 19k and 14k people respectively (EK as an airline around 25k). They're certainly not clones, each airline have their very different product line, including aircrafts. EK only use widebodies even on the shortest of hauls. EY run narrow bodies for a large chunk of its regional network. QR use narrow bodies on some European destinations (selling J as F but essentially just regional business class product).

Even with regards to fleet growth and strategy, very different. EK tops the chart at 140 A380s, while EY and QR have only ordered 10 each. They also have different alliances and partnerships: QR with OW, EY with AF/KL/AZ/AB/VA (and a whole heap of others, injecting money and buying shares in other airlines), and EK with QF/B6/etc. It would be foolish and ignorant to think that QR and EY are makeshift/fake airlines.

Furthermore, following the nonsense in bold, one can argue the same for the US and Europe. But hey, perhaps you should take a moment or two and explain to us foreigners the concepts of capitalism and free market. And just for your information, there are several global Middle Eastern airlines not just the 3. But who are you to infer a market limitation on the number of airlines in a region? I'm sure the folks at EL (El Al, a Middle Eastern airline if you didn't know) would be horrified to hear such comment and consider it racist and oppressive.

Your words are reminiscent of those ridiculously ignorant quotes (like there's a market for 5 computers in the world), and indicate shallow thinking.

eightblack Mar 18, 2015 5:53 pm

Mod Comment
 
Folks, this is probably one of the most interesting threads in my entire time moderating the EK forum.

However, lets be clear. Focus on the topic, not an individual. Zol and I will become a lot firmer with the feather duster if civil conversation cant be had.

Lets avoid generalisations, accusations and snide remarks. It would be a pity to close this thread...

Dieuwer Mar 18, 2015 6:03 pm


Originally Posted by eightblack (Post 24529305)
Folks, this is probably one of the most interesting threads in my entire time moderating the EK forum.

However, lets be clear. Focus on the topic, not an individual. Zol and I will become a lot firmer with the feather duster if civil conversation cant be had.

Lets avoid generalisations, accusations and snide remarks. It would be a pity to close this thread...

This thread is "interesting" because the only person who claims "Emirates is a financial scam" is the OP.
Other contributors have brought facts to the table that proves the counterpoint, but the OP is still insisting.
Then what is the purpose of this thread? To give one FlyerTalker a podium to rant in a forum?
Do the mods know how many similar threads could be started in other airline forums? Claiming: "Airline XYZ is a financial scam"!

Shall we start those threads?

Awaiting a response from the mods.

Yours truly,
dieuwer2


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