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I should of course, quickly respond to the rest of your post just for completeness' sake.
Originally Posted by iahphx
(Post 24856230)
I'm sorry, but that piece is fan mail, not an analysis.
A serious question though: are you at all familiar with the publication? It is seen as extremely credible on many matters of economics and public policy and is seen to be non-partisan (except of course in its economic philosophy - e.g. it does not enjoy state capitalism as a matter of principle). I was a foreign affairs major in college (a long time ago) and at that time we studied the media in the Soviet Union. I find a disturbing similarity between the press in the UAE and the press in the USSR. For instance, yesterday I read in one of the UAE papers excerpts from people who wrote in to the DOT to applaud Emirates' service (what we would have called the useful dupes). Try to imagine a US newspaper finding and printing the opinions of some random individuals supporting the US airlines' case. It's just creepy, but that's the way state-controlled media roll. You definitely should enjoy the perks and, if you don't want to worry about who's paying the bill, you don't have to. This is a public policy issue. The world won't end if the UAE subsidies your travel. Yes, some Americans will either lose their jobs or not get them, and some American companies will make less money than "they should," but if you don't want to worry about that, you don't have to. You mention state control of media above - in a jurisdiction like the US where it doesn't happen (except perhaps with self-censorship or the journalistic herd mentality that arguably popped up in the US in the late 2000s for various obvious reasons), one has to be wary of the current form of press and public opinion manipulation which is the presence of a large amount of lobbying money, money which historically is used to shape public and legislative opinion. That's why once again, we try and rely on objective data, not information from both the accused and accusers as both have vested interests in their positions. It will be fascinating to see how this ends. Because if the ME3 actually "win," they lose -- because they're going to need even more subsidies to keep themselves afloat. Because of geography, expansion to America has got to be the single worst "opportunity" they have. I mean, other than conquering the ISC, what's left? Thailand? I'm sure the Thais will be thrilled with this! With the crazy competition amongst themselves (again, as I've said, I could envision one ME3 airline having "a business," but the idea that there's enough business for 3 such mega-connectors strikes me as the most idiotic idea out there), logic would suggest that fewer loss-making flights to America would be better than more. But logic never seems to play into their business strategy, which is why this thread exists. Thailand, btw, is already conquered by the ME3 - EK have 6 flights a day (4 of them A380s), EY and QR 4 daily. All widebodies. Which all get filled regularly, even in the premium classes (shocking to some, I know). After all, in many of those opinion-for-hire pieces that have been published recently, they link to independent data showing that implied demand for international air traffic is on such a growth trajectory (on absolute numbers - after all, if 200 million people travel in India and there's a growth rate of 2%, that's 4 million extra seats a year to supply capacity to - 11000 seats a day, enough for 24 A380s. Let's not even get started on China and SE Asia - Indonesia of course has a population of 240 million and the Philippines 100 million let's not forget. That is the factor, imho, that will determine whether these 4 super-connectors can survive or fail - if that population and economic growth is going to actually happen quickly enough. |
Originally Posted by iahphx
(Post 24856230)
I was a foreign affairs major in college (a long time ago) and at that time we studied the media in the Soviet Union.
That explains your Pravda-esque "I'm right because I say so, and I don't need to back up my allegations with verifiable facts" posts. You're the FT version of Comical Ali. @:-) |
Originally Posted by eternaltransit
(Post 24856331)
After all, in many of those opinion-for-hire pieces that have been published recently, they link to independent data showing that implied demand for international air traffic is on such a growth trajectory (on absolute numbers - after all, if 200 million people travel in India and there's a growth rate of 2%, that's 4 million extra seats a year to supply capacity to - 11000 seats a day, enough for 24 A380s. Let's not even get started on China and SE Asia - Indonesia of course has a population of 240 million and the Philippines 100 million let's not forget. That is the factor, imho, that will determine whether these 4 super-connectors can survive or fail - if that population and economic growth is going to actually happen quickly enough.
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Originally Posted by You want to go where?
(Post 24856393)
Essentially half the world's population lives in an area bound by China and the Philippines in the east, Indonesia in the South, Pakistan in the west, and India and China to the north. Even minor levels of economic growth can generate large increases in the traveling population. There is no question that the ME3's strategy is a gamble, but there is a basis for taking that bet.
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Originally Posted by You want to go where?
(Post 24856393)
Essentially half the world's population lives in an area bound by China and the Philippines in the east, Indonesia in the South, Pakistan in the west, and India and China to the north. Even minor levels of economic growth can generate large increases in the traveling population. There is no question that the ME3's strategy is a gamble, but there is a basis for taking that bet.
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LAD is so unviable as a destination it has to have a 3 x weekly private charter, 747 - mainly biz class, by 5Y!
(Delta did waste a lot of money trying to open at LAD circa 2009/2010)! |
Originally Posted by cargueiro
(Post 24856068)
As Andrew Charlton put it “The LCCs ate European airlines’ lunch; the Gulf carriers are coming to eat their dinner.”
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Originally Posted by eternaltransit
(Post 24856331)
I hardly think The Economist writes any fan mail pieces - except that their editorial position is the support of classical economic liberalism. I'm not sure anyone in this thread argues seriously against that point of view.
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Originally Posted by UA1K_no_more
(Post 24856558)
But if a city currently doesn't have a US3 non-stop flight, it can't possibly be viable to have any flights to there, at least according to some "experts"...
And when the lid is blown on the ME3 subsidy thing, you might feel a little bit better about yourself. Although, from my experience, few people ever apologize for being wrong. |
Originally Posted by UA1K_no_more
(Post 24856344)
You have outdated skills and knowledge, what a surprise...
That explains your Pravda-esque "I'm right because I say so, and I don't need to back up my allegations with verifiable facts" posts. You're the FT version of Comical Ali. @:-) |
Originally Posted by eternaltransit
(Post 24856274)
I know right, just finding random people who might have some sort of tangential interest in the subject and quoting their opinions as serious evidence is rather weak isn't it!
http://www.openandfairskies.com/what...gulf-airlines/ Hey, look, quoting a blogger, right there at the bottom :D (no disrepect to Mr. Schlappig, I quite enjoy his Trip reports!) BTW, don't knock Mr. Schlappig. His overall work, like that done by many of the popular miles and points blogs, can be better than that of most formal "journalists." That said, Mr. Schlappig appears a little out of his depth on this subsidy thing (it's not really a frequent flyer issue of course), just like Gary at ViewFromtheWing (who seems a little too fond of his free Emirates flights to me). |
Originally Posted by iahphx
(Post 24856954)
Again, instead of going on attack mode and attributing positions to us that we don't hold, you should study the concepts that I and FD1971 are offering.
Or perhaps you're referring to FD1971's concept that someone who doesn't blindly believe in the unsubstantiated allegations is a "US3 hater?" Talk about "attributing positions"... [...] from my experience, few people ever apologize for being wrong. The others may not be right, but at least they try facts. How much money do you have invested in US3 stock? Answering that question (and many other that you have "forgotten" to answer) will reveal your true reasons for starting this thread. |
Originally Posted by iahphx
(Post 24856939)
Of course I'm familiar with the Economist -- it's a boring English-based magazine that few people actually read. But it's usually known for higher quality articles than this piece, which is substance-free. There have been published allegations that the ME3 "buys off" European journalists with perks. I have no personal knowledge whether that's true. But if this guy didn't get bought off, he should have! You'd find better journalism in a fan magazine (and btw, I used to be a journalist, too, who worked for a competitor of the Economist, so I know a little about that subject, too).
http://m.campaignlive.co.uk/article/...affairs-sector Please can you provide a link to your allegation? The Economist journalists, as I am sure you know, do not publish their names following their pieces. The ME3 would therefore need to buy off Pearson plc, not just a journalist, to get any The Economist article favouring them. I am surprised you don't rate The Economist as a reliable source! http://www.businessinsider.com/here-...merica-2014-10 |
Originally Posted by iahphx
(Post 24856939)
Of course I'm familiar with the Economist -- it's a boring English-based magazine that few people actually read.
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Originally Posted by abaca12
(Post 24854291)
I certainly understand the limitations of the peer-reviewed publication system, and appreciate your use of Enron and others to illustrate your point (which I find suitable on many levels), but I must repeat my criticism once again: all that can be accomplished without resorting to sound bites that are not always factually correct, don't you think? If you knew that you were about to write something that is not truthful, why bother writing it? Your reply to OP added nothing but animosity to the discussion, and it wasn't even factual!
Furthermore, let me give you one other example: when replying to my cited article, one could remark something quirky along the lines of "de Wit is certainly honoring his surname by phrasing the highlighted passage in red the way he does right [etc] [wink]?" and so on, or the same person could point out that he only talks about a very specific subset of financial activities, which happens to be citable and publicly verifiable, but he does not touch at all on where the contentious issue seems to be, the fact that EK itself can be squeaky clean, while other sister/aunt/twice-removed-cousin companies are the ones left with the debt/cost burden (which itself cannot be citable, thus never likely to be accepted for publication). Which one do you think is more likely to generate a positive response? Anyway, this is more of a meta-discussion which aims only to help with the flow of the thread, so please carry on. The reason, aside from time, is simple, there is nothing new and interesting for me anyway, since I know most of the people and read most of the publication hence know the vast majority of their opinions. As pointed out before, Mr. de Wit is spending a lot of time in Germany and the case of the ME3 and Emirates is actually pretty obvious. @:-) |
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