Extremely optimistic (probably borderline miraculous on an established route like SFO) is what I would think...

As a gold, my op-up rate has been 0%. As a minor it is just a given that EK will not give you an op-op (at least in my experience).

This rate is by doing well over 400k miles on EK in 2.5 years - 25 DUR-LHR returns to date, 5 DUR-SEA(-YVR), and other holiday flying to places like JED/MRU/SYD/CAI/BEI/BOM/SIN etc.

Good luck. It really would be a miracle like others have said earlier.

I'm batting on 33% for J to F upgrades out of 6 segments so far this year. Not sure if being Qantas Platinum (flying QF Coded/QF Ticketed itinerary) helps, or maybe there's some truth to the first letter of your last name thing.

One op-up (first ever flight on EK metal) was at the gate and I did notice a couple of empty seats in J, last minute no show's perhaps?. The other was in the lounge when I asked (as I was headed to the gate) if the flight was looking very full.