Wine Futures... any experience?
 

Hello all,

I was looking into perhaps buying some 2008 Bordeaux wine futures (1er crus). Since I have not done this yet, I was wondering if there was anybody around with some experience in this area.

eg: Did you buy the futures online (if so, where?), or at a brick & mortar dealer in your area? When did you buy them?

Thanks for any tips/advice!

I've bought directly from the winery in the past, but only at places where I've been able to actually either taste the grapes at harvest time or barrel taste the wine after that. I have never blindly bought futures.

With some small production wines, it's the only way to get them, as they usually sell out at the future stage.

If you trust the winey and winemaker and the vintage is good, it's hard to get burned. But I would never just buy futures without doing a ton of research first, without knowing anything about it at all just because it's a future.

Check out this forum on the Robert Parker boards http://dat.erobertparker.com/bboard/...splay.php?f=10

You may find a thread or 2 with discussion on the topic.

I've bought futures locally (Zachy's in Scarsdale NY www.zachys.com)
As cordelli stated, research is key.

dh

I have grabbed 1st growth futures on multiple occasions over the last 15 years. Should be no problem if you deal with a reputable firm or a local store you know and trust.
Remember you are giving your money away for something you won't see for a couple of years. If the wine store or online provider you give your money to goes out of business you are screwed. That said, I have never had a problem. It's a great way to get some outstanding wines at around half the price when they are released. My favorite buy was the 5 first growth cases I bought on future for the 1995 vintage. Average future price was 100.00 / bottle. Kept 6 of each, sold six of each for 5 times what I spent.

this is the way most bordeaux futures work

you buy a future from a local wine store.

the wine store buys a future from a futures broker in the usa

the futures broker in the usa buys futures from a broker in france who has purchased them from a number of wineries in france.

the winery has sold the futures, and may hold back half the wine for later release.

there are many weak links in this chain, and it has broken more than once. the futures broker in usa can fail or just disappear. that has happened.

the french broker may fail or go broke. there is considerable threat of the go broke this year, as the prices for the 2006 went up, and the brokers are stuck with the futures. the wineries are demanding even higher prices for the 2007, and there is much confusion as to what to do.

if you want to buy futures, buy california cab futures. that's a pretty straightforeward transaction.

One tip is to avoid new internet-only wine stores which have the cheapest futures prices.

The corollary is to find a well established wine retailer with a long history of delivery. Here in CA, K&L Wines (www.klwines.com) have a great reputation and fair pricing. On klwines.com you can buy futures online or you can call it in.

Finally, for the 2008 Bordeaux vintage, unless you are trying to get some high in demand wines like Lafite, you probably will get similar futures pricing by avoiding futures altogether and wait when the wines are actually available in the bottle. Less risk of non-delivery that way. Don't let the fear of "missing the boat" on certain Bordeaux futures push you to buy. Put the money in the bank or in some government bonds and forget about it until the 2008 vintage is released. =)

As a rule, I always buy from brick and mortar stores, I have a few that I trust and that have been reliable through the years that I tend to go through. FWIW I've bought Bordeaux, Burgundy, and California wines as futures and had good results.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...sn=001&sc=1000

An interesting article from this past week's SF Chronicle.

That article came out rather late in the "en primeur" game. Parker had already released his scores. To get the best prices, one really needed to have started looking into futures a few weeks ago. All first growths could be had under $200. After Parker's scores, many of the highly rated wines have increased in prices accordingly. One of the biggest negociants in the Bordeaux futures game, Diageo, isn't playing in the 2008 futures this year.

I still think the smart play for this vintage is to just wait until they are released in bottle and buy them then.

If you live near a fine wine shop, approach them about whether they're dipping into the 2008 BDX futures market. Working with a local retailer is nice as it allows you to stay in touch with them about your wine's arrival time.

For 2008 BDX, they will be arriving stateside in 2011.

In Europe there is a low demand for 2008 Bordeaux futures. Therefore I would guess, that price are going down. 200 € a bottle for a 1ere cru is a good price compared to the last years, but is still 200 €. As economy is down and also the crazy Russians and Chinese's have lost money and won't go back in wine that fast, I assume that prices go down.
Also, lot of people have turned away from the great Bordeaux in the last years, as they were too expensive. Especially restaurants are not ordering anymore because of the high prices.
hok

Does anyone want to confess to playing (= betting on) this particular game?

Considering the recent auction of Bordeaux Crus, it might have been better to have bought the real thing, from distressed or keen sellers at that auction.

Some brave souls may have taken the risk... fess up. :D
Then you can crow or cry about it here in the future. :)

I don't personally recommend futures, however if you're looking for a reputable source try Sherry-Lehman. They are a very reputable brick and mortar store in NYC, and also have a pretty extensive web site. If you live in a state that allows wine shipping, they S-L often runs some pretty good shipping deals and have been able to find almost every wine I've been able to throw at them.

I'm not sure I understand the point of your post..There are already a few posters in this thread (me included) who've confessed to "betting" or "playing" the futures "game". A simple read-through of the thread would show that. ;)

If you're asking if any of us have held off the futures then bought 2000's, 2003's or 2005's at auction, I'd suspect a great many savvy wineophiles have done so. The issue at hand is that none of us will be able to take your approach with the 2008's till 2010-2011. ^

I also used Zachy's (ordered online, picked up in person) to get a mixed case of definitely not 1er cru in the 2000 vintage. I was impressed with the store and the experience, and would use them again, but I just haven't done futures the last few years.

I put up money I was willing to lose (150% of what I usually spent on a case at the time) in hopes of having some better wine than I would usually be willing to buy. One of my bottles is now worth more than I paid for the case (but I'm going to hold it for a while more, then drink it).

As others have said, it is not risk-free. But, financially, the return on the risk has historically been disproportionate to the actual probability of failure; Bordeaux futures have outperformed the stock market as an investment. However, futures prices seem to be higher these days.