China Southern to leave Skyteam
Nov 16, 2018, 1:03 pm
#16
Join Date: Apr 2011
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Huh. That article doesnt actually quote anyone saying Xiamen leaving. I mean, we all assume it's going to happen at some point if not immediately, but I wonder if it's just the author assuming it will happen because it's a CZ subisidary, or if it's actually sourced with a statement from a spokesperson. (I ask because Reuters specifically reached out to a Xiamen spokesperson and was explicitly told they're staying for the foreseeable future, so somebody here on one side or the other is confused..)
I'm sure there will be individuals for this will be impactfull , but it's a drop in the bucket for DL especially. And it might even help them move some traffic to the DL/MU orbit.
Nov 16, 2018, 4:13 pm
#17
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My hot take is that CZ wouldn’t be leaving SkyTeam unless they already had a new alliance membership ready to go behind the scenes. They’re saying publicly they are fine moving forward as independent to save on alliance membership fees, and perhaps this is true - so much of their business is domestic and they’ve never really been a huge connecting player anyway. But I don’t buy it - with the AA investment in CZ and the years of OW rumors, I firmly believe this is already sorted out behind the scenes and CZ will join OneWorld, possibly with an announcement as soon as January 1 once this formally takes effect.
As you say, AA is probably a party to the whole negotiation. If a TPAC joint venture is announced involving some of these players, I won’t be surprised at all. I’d be surprised if it’s a straight up route-cancellation-for-membership deal, though, for compliance reasons if nothing else.
Edited to add after further thought: One possible outcome if you are right and CX does hold the line is a deep AA/CZ joint venture partnership that excludes CX and other alliance partners entirely, similar to DL/VS. If that happens, they may not enter OneWorld, but it will raise serious questions about the alliance dynamics with CX and could force them into a bit of self imposed isolation as others simply work around their obstinance.
Nov 16, 2018, 4:20 pm
#18
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I misread the article, where it said MF was owned by CZ I read it as they were taking them with them leaving ST.
I'm sure there will be individuals for this will be impactfull , but it's a drop in the bucket for DL especially. And it might even help them move some traffic to the DL/MU orbit.
I'm sure there will be individuals for this will be impactfull , but it's a drop in the bucket for DL especially. And it might even help them move some traffic to the DL/MU orbit.
Nov 16, 2018, 5:51 pm
#19
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This is indeed the common perception, and who can blame them - why deal with any competition at all? But, as I said, I think the combination of government pressure and their diminishing financial situation could change the calculus.
My hot take is that CZ wouldn’t be leaving SkyTeam unless they already had a new alliance membership ready to go behind the scenes. They’re saying publicly they are fine moving forward as independent to save on alliance membership fees, and perhaps this is true - so much of their business is domestic and they’ve never really been a huge connecting player anyway. But I don’t buy it - with the AA investment in CZ and the years of OW rumors, I firmly believe this is already sorted out behind the scenes and CZ will join OneWorld, possibly with an announcement as soon as January 1 once this formally takes effect.
As you say, AA is probably a party to the whole negotiation. If a TPAC joint venture is announced involving some of these players, I won’t be surprised at all. I’d be surprised if it’s a straight up route-cancellation-for-membership deal, though, for compliance reasons if nothing else.
Edited to add after further thought: One possible outcome if you are right and CX does hold the line is a deep AA/CZ joint venture partnership that excludes CX and other alliance partners entirely, similar to DL/VS. If that happens, they may not enter OneWorld, but it will raise serious questions about the alliance dynamics with CX and could force them into a bit of self imposed isolation as others simply work around their obstinance.
Nov 16, 2018, 6:02 pm
#20
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I am close friends with a guy who many of you know (e.g. serial airline exec who built the DL brand in China). I asked him about Chinese airlines in OW several years ago, and he told me such will never happen because CX/KA can serve most of China via their nice airport in Hong Kong.
Nov 16, 2018, 6:30 pm
#21
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They’re saying publicly they are fine moving forward as independent to save on alliance membership fees, and perhaps this is true - so much of their business is domestic and they’ve never really been a huge connecting player anyway. But I don’t buy it - with the AA investment in CZ and the years of OW rumors, I firmly believe this is already sorted out behind the scenes and CZ will join OneWorld, possibly with an announcement as soon as January 1 once this formally takes effect.
I expect CZ to cozy up with a few OW members for the near future, and try to become a defacto member, hoping CX looks towards *A. But it certainly isn't a done deal, and won't be for some time.
Nov 16, 2018, 6:40 pm
#22
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Interesting theory, but I give it a <1% chance of being right. CX isn't going to let them into OW, full stop.
I expect CZ to cozy up with a few OW members for the near future, and try to become a defacto member, hoping CX looks towards *A. But it certainly isn't a done deal, and won't be for some time.
I expect CZ to cozy up with a few OW members for the near future, and try to become a defacto member, hoping CX looks towards *A. But it certainly isn't a done deal, and won't be for some time.
Nov 16, 2018, 7:16 pm
#24
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It’s certainly possible that the conventional wisdom about CX is correct - it is conventional, after all. This’ll be a fun one to watch from the sidelines either way. If we hit 2020 and CZ is still unaffiliated - either with OneWorld or at least an AA JV - I’ll cheerfully buy you folks a beverage of your choice at a future do
It will be an interesting one!
Nov 16, 2018, 7:19 pm
#25
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@MoDs: we now have two threads on this topic, and there are likely to be more. I suggest consolidating them in the other Asian forum.
Nov 16, 2018, 8:26 pm
#26
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Just booked what'll be final award involving CZ. CZ CHC-CAN then AF CAN-CDG-DUB. 90K for J.
Nov 16, 2018, 11:20 pm
#27
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Well this is a bummer mostly because China Southern has had some amazing J fares recently and I've been tempted to take one. The MQMs would have been delightful! But I guess if they join OW or at least an AA partnership I won't lose out completely, just on status.
Nov 17, 2018, 8:36 am
#28
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@MoDs: we now have two threads on this topic, and there are likely to be more. I suggest consolidating them in the other Asian forum.
Nov 17, 2018, 8:53 am
#29
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Bummer, but not unexpected.
I wonder if and when this will affect Xiamen Airlines. They’re 55% owned by CZ, so you kind of expect they will follow the mothership, but they may wait to make the move for another year or two until CZ’s new alliance membership is solidified (almost certainly in OneWorld).
This leaves SkyTeam with a gaping hole in South China you can fly an A380 through, although I do agree CZ/MF weren’t really filling that hole well given the limited nature of the partnership. I wonder if HX would be interested in an alliance?
I wonder if and when this will affect Xiamen Airlines. They’re 55% owned by CZ, so you kind of expect they will follow the mothership, but they may wait to make the move for another year or two until CZ’s new alliance membership is solidified (almost certainly in OneWorld).
This leaves SkyTeam with a gaping hole in South China you can fly an A380 through, although I do agree CZ/MF weren’t really filling that hole well given the limited nature of the partnership. I wonder if HX would be interested in an alliance?
Nov 17, 2018, 9:44 am
#30
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