Has the sweet spot for booking travel changed? Or am I just wrong...
Oct 3, 2018, 7:26 am
#16
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: STL
Programs: DL DM; HH gold
Posts: 554
OP is probably not wrong on that the sweet spot has changed per se, but I would argue that there is just less of a "sweet spot", period, compared to even a few years ago. The reasons are that Delta (and probably others) have gotten massively better at revenue management (from DL's perspective), and they continue to get better at it as they employ more and more machine learning. They have massive amounts of historical data to feed AI, and as they keep refining it with current real-world data, it becomes (barring major unforeseen events) more and more adept at pricing flight x on date y, z days out to consumer xx exactly in the the spot where that consumer will likely purchase (or alternatively, price it where the consumer will not purchase if the system thinks it can extract more value with a different set of parameters).
Get ready for your personalized airfare sweet spot (or sour spot), coming to a Deltamatic outlet near you, very soon.
Get ready for your personalized airfare sweet spot (or sour spot), coming to a Deltamatic outlet near you, very soon.
Oct 3, 2018, 5:06 pm
#17
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Earth (non-US)
Programs: NW Gold->CO->UA->DL PM
Posts: 1,339
With many DL flights (at least in F/J) sold out several weeks to several months out, how can you even find any available seats (at any price) this extremely close in? You must be looking at some very unpopular routes (where DL is likely going to cut service soon, as DL likes to have its planes be 100% full, leaving no margin for error).
The lack of availability on DL at T-3m and closer in is what is driving me and other business travelers away from DL and to other airlines who cater more to the business traveler, who can't always plan the exact travel dates 6-11 months in advance.
The lack of availability on DL at T-3m and closer in is what is driving me and other business travelers away from DL and to other airlines who cater more to the business traveler, who can't always plan the exact travel dates 6-11 months in advance.
In the past 3 months: ORD/MDW-JFK/LGA is often <$150 under a week. CHI-SFO/SEA/PDX < $250. BOS/NYC-SFO/OAK < $300.
Sure, I'm personally MEX-based and almost everything we book revolves around MEX, and individual circumstances may vary, but ... my sense is that any 60-day "sweet spot" is gone, and at least on routes where I look, inventory doesn't usually cram in until inside 7 days.
Of course: anyone out there got real data instead of our anecdotes
?
Last edited by kthomas; Oct 3, 2018 at 6:18 pm
Oct 3, 2018, 5:21 pm
#18
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: HNL
Programs: DL PM/1MM, BW DE (lifetime), HH DE, Marriott PE (lifetime), National Emerald Executive
Posts: 7,205
Perhaps F/J. Isn't that another discussion?
In the past 3 months: ORD/MDW-JFk/LGA is often <$150 under a week. CHI-SFO/SEA/PDX < $250. BOS/NYC-SFO/OAK < $300.
Sure, I'm personally MEX-based and almost everything we book revolves around MEX, and individual circumstances may vary, but ... my sense is that any 60-day "sweet spot" is gone, and at least on routes where I look, inventory doesn't usually cram in until inside 7 days.
Of course: anyone out there got real data instead of our anecdotes ?
In the past 3 months: ORD/MDW-JFk/LGA is often <$150 under a week. CHI-SFO/SEA/PDX < $250. BOS/NYC-SFO/OAK < $300.
Sure, I'm personally MEX-based and almost everything we book revolves around MEX, and individual circumstances may vary, but ... my sense is that any 60-day "sweet spot" is gone, and at least on routes where I look, inventory doesn't usually cram in until inside 7 days.
Of course: anyone out there got real data instead of our anecdotes
?Revenue Management is far too complicated and far too much of a (black?) art for any mere mortal to understand nowadays.
Oct 4, 2018, 1:11 pm
#19
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: SEA
Programs: DL PM
Posts: 202
Delta (and probably others) have gotten massively better at revenue management (from DL's perspective), and they continue to get better at it as they employ more and more machine learning. They have massive amounts of historical data to feed AI, and as they keep refining it with current real-world data, it becomes (barring major unforeseen events) more and more adept at pricing flight x on date y, z days out to consumer xx exactly in the the spot where that consumer will likely purchase (or alternatively, price it where the consumer will not purchase if the system thinks it can extract more value with a different set of parameters).
Oct 4, 2018, 1:27 pm
#20
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 23,058
Perhaps F/J. Isn't that another discussion?
In the past 3 months: ORD/MDW-JFK/LGA is often <$150 under a week. CHI-SFO/SEA/PDX < $250. BOS/NYC-SFO/OAK < $300.
Sure, I'm personally MEX-based and almost everything we book revolves around MEX, and individual circumstances may vary, but ... my sense is that any 60-day "sweet spot" is gone, and at least on routes where I look, inventory doesn't usually cram in until inside 7 days.
Of course: anyone out there got real data instead of our anecdotes ?
In the past 3 months: ORD/MDW-JFK/LGA is often <$150 under a week. CHI-SFO/SEA/PDX < $250. BOS/NYC-SFO/OAK < $300.
Sure, I'm personally MEX-based and almost everything we book revolves around MEX, and individual circumstances may vary, but ... my sense is that any 60-day "sweet spot" is gone, and at least on routes where I look, inventory doesn't usually cram in until inside 7 days.
Of course: anyone out there got real data instead of our anecdotes
?What does revenue pricing have to do with awards?? Taking ORD-LGA as an example the cheapest awards are 7K one-way and require 30-day advance purchase and Tu/We/Sa travel. 14-day advance purchase are available for 8K miles, 10-day advance are 12.5K, 7-day advance are 13K, and anything less than 7-day's is whopping 25K or more one-way. The cheapest revenue fare on this route at less than 7 days out is a $282 Q fare.
Last edited by xliioper; Oct 4, 2018 at 1:41 pm
Oct 4, 2018, 1:40 pm
#21
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: HNL
Programs: DL PM/1MM, BW DE (lifetime), HH DE, Marriott PE (lifetime), National Emerald Executive
Posts: 7,205
Well, for one, award pricing is increasingly aligned with revenue pricing and usually the two go up and down in tandem (not always, though), but you are right that close-in that relation often breaks nowadays...as DL clearly saw one of the few better remaining avenues of more reasonable award redemption and made sure to shut off that channel.