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Empty Delta One Seats, No Upgrade List, But no Paid Upgrades? (RDU-CDG)

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Empty Delta One Seats, No Upgrade List, But no Paid Upgrades? (RDU-CDG)

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Old Oct 28, 2017, 6:15 am
  #31  
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BA plays this game both ways and has managed to anger its HVC's in the process. Like non-US carriers, it does not offer freebie UG's on any routes and certainly not on its international 3-4 class services. But, it offers all manner of UG mechanisms to the point that many devised strategies to routinely fly in F/J with paid PE/Y tickets and that became the norm.

When BA started using a sophisticated algorithm to offer cheap-ish UG's to specific customers and not always, at that, there was a howl. But, what it had done was identify passengers who, if given a "taste of the good life" were more likely than the average passenger to pay for it in future.

That is a loss leader. A cheap UG develops a passenger willing to pay, at least on occasion, for the product.

But, any product which can be routinely gamed, especially on DL where there is only J (D1) and no F, is an invitation to cutting revenue overall.

Passengers look at this from an individual and often one-off perspective (same thing with SDC). But, the carrier looks at overall RM/IM and PRASM. Routinely flying people in D1 on discounted Y tickets + a bit of cash is a bad long-term prescription.

Flying your employees in D1 does not affect anything. DL is not competing for their business and the it can make an employee quite happy without spending much.
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Old Oct 28, 2017, 6:18 am
  #32  
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Originally Posted by CMK10
I'm a lawyer with his own practice and I've done work far below the market rate if people ask me last minute and I'm already at the courthouse. May as well, I'm there and it was more than I was planning to get anyway. Doesn't cheapen my brand but it does make people happy and it's scored me some repeat business.
That is smart marketing. But, I trust that you would not routinely offer the rate because you don't want the word to get around that you work on the cheap.

That is the UG problem on DL. Once the total ticket price (Y/C+ as well as the D1 supplement) gets out, that becomes the price of a D1 ticket and people who pay more complain (even though they get the certainty of a D1 seat).
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Old Oct 28, 2017, 7:05 am
  #33  
 
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Originally Posted by FlyerWx
I remember on the first day of my college intro to econ class, the professor gave a very similar example.

From what I recall, there are definitely short-term vs long-term economic implications. If, at the gate, DL thinks on the margin, they should sell the ticket at a price above the cost of extra food, extra fuel, etc that a D1 seat requires. However, as has been mentioned, they can't keep doing this, or else it would significantly decrease longer-term profits.

Oh, and there's the non-monetary cost of an unhappy non-rev
What is the extra cost of D1 anyway? Seems like it would be pretty small. Crew gets paid the same; person was already on the plane in Y, so no extra fuel; drinks are free in Y too; I assume they cater enough food for the whole J cabin and discard leftovers, so no food costs.

As for giving seats to non-revs, I agree there's an intangible benefit. It's a benefit that probably keeps some employees happy and makes them more likely to stay with DL, just like F upgrades keep some medallions flying on DL. That said, I do think they need to find a mechanism to fill the seats if there are any left after non-revs clear. Either go to medallions after the non-revs (make a DM happy and more likely to buy DL for future intl) or use some kind of FCM.

I understand the argument about FCM cheapening the product, but if it's done only after all non-rev upgrades clear (which seems unlikely on most flights), I don't think that it would. If your vacation/work budget is large enough to afford the $4k fare difference between Y and J, are you really going to roll the dice on a < 5% chance you can buy Y and FCM into J? OTOH, I'm absolutely *not* going to pay the extra $4k up front, but I might consider a $500 FCM offer.
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Old Oct 28, 2017, 7:56 am
  #34  
 
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Originally Posted by CMK10
I'm a lawyer with his own practice and I've done work far below the market rate if people ask me last minute and I'm already at the courthouse. May as well, I'm there and it was more than I was planning to get anyway.
I've got an incorporation/tax question... since you're here reading this....
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Old Oct 28, 2017, 9:05 am
  #35  
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Originally Posted by EditingFX
I've got an incorporation/tax question... since you're here reading this....
Im a district court hustler, believe me you're better off asking anyone BUT me your question!

(that advice was free)
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Old Oct 28, 2017, 9:44 am
  #36  
 
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Originally Posted by FlyerWx
I remember on the first day of my college intro to econ class, the professor gave a very similar example.

From what I recall, there are definitely short-term vs long-term economic implications. If, at the gate, DL thinks on the margin, they should sell the ticket at a price above the cost of extra food, extra fuel, etc that a D1 seat requires. However, as has been mentioned, they can't keep doing this, or else it would significantly decrease longer-term profits.

Oh, and there's the non-monetary cost of an unhappy non-rev
Good point re short vs long term. If DL thinks on the margin they can sell the ticket above the extra costs of fuel/food etc they will do so if they are under projected budget/sales target for the quarter. Similar to most businesses.

If its a solid quarter - why cheapen your product for short term gain if you dont really need to? The airlines change their pricing - and quantity of pricing at each level - based on demand all the time. i.e. more seats available in Z/I buckets if its a slow period of the year. Why make more seats available in Z if you don't need to?

Selling paid upgrades is just an extension of this. Having available seat(s) at T-24 just allows the extensive analysis to begin to determine if to offer a paid upgrade on the day, and if so, at what price.

Incidentally, myself & colleagues regularly travel between MSP/LHR and know at certain times of the year on certain days if Z class goes down to 0, there is a good chance it'll come back. Other times we notice Z class appears to be at 0 from many months out and waiting for Z to reappear is too much of a risk - i.e. get in before I/D/C classes go as J class is too expensive and you risk flying down the back!

Of course, Z class regularly reappearing could just be cancellations however the regularity of seeing Z class come back, and the seats maps not changing, makes it likely this is just DL making additional inventory available at lower fare levels.
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Old Oct 28, 2017, 12:05 pm
  #37  
 
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Originally Posted by Christefan
...The tool that was used is an internal Delta tool for "friends and family" that is used for listings and to determine loads for non-rev travel which shows the actual load in each cabin and the seats that are authorized to be sold above the actual seats available.
I'm quite familiar w TravelNet and was curious to see if there was a publicly-accessible tool that showed that same level of detail. Thanks.
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Old Oct 28, 2017, 2:22 pm
  #38  
 
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Originally Posted by CPMaverick
What's interesting is DL is on the forefront of FCM domestically, selling FC tickets for just small amounts more than coach just to fill the seats. Yet internationally, they protect the product. Totally different philosophy.
Also totally different products. Long haul J has a market that (some) companies and high wealth individuals will pay for, and a product that's arguably significantly more valuable (ie the flat bed, not the stuff on the margins like meals). Most domestic F routes are outside most corporate travel policies, and the product isn't much better than buying two adjacent Y+ seats.

Put another way, the market isn't there for the $1000+ prices that domestic F used to sell for. FCM is perhaps better called "Price Correction".
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Old Oct 29, 2017, 1:39 am
  #39  
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Checked in for my return flights. KLM sold me an upgrade for $625 for AMS-JFK. Yay the system I prefer
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Old Oct 29, 2017, 2:32 am
  #40  
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while this thread raises a valid complaint, DL's policy is what it is. they don't sell these seats for cash DOD upgrades. i've asked many, many times on relatively empty D1 flights from PDX to AMS and always been told "nope, we don't do that". it's a shame because the new redemption costs for mileage upgrades are so outrageous that they are completely out of reach for folks who don't maintain 7 figure SM balances on the regular...but it is what it is.
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Old Oct 29, 2017, 10:16 am
  #41  
 
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Originally Posted by CMK10
I'm a lawyer with his own practice and I've done work far below the market rate if people ask me last minute and I'm already at the courthouse. May as well, I'm there and it was more than I was planning to get anyway. Doesn't cheapen my brand but it does make people happy and it's scored me some repeat business.
The lawyer example is actually not a good example, because lawyers are getting paid less nowadays than in the past. Because there are too many produced, law schools pop up all over the place, anybody can take the bar (well, depending on what state). The medical profession is a better example, because they limit the number of graduates and thus can keep supply low, so even if demand is constant they can still make the same.
I guess it is about commoditization of a product.
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Old Oct 29, 2017, 10:33 am
  #42  
 
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Originally Posted by CPMaverick
The argument isn't against cheapening the product, the argument is that the airline makes less revenue when they offer buy-ups. Because some passengers rely on buy-ups instead of buying a J ticket.

As you have shown, people eavesdrop at the gate. If someone that paid $5000 for a J ticket heard you buying an upgrade for $500, they might say 'next time I will just do that.'

Nobody says 'next time I will just be the captain's wife.'
Giggle. ^^^
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Old Oct 29, 2017, 7:06 pm
  #43  
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Originally Posted by 3Cforme

FT really ought to demand proof of successful completion of a college microeconomics course before they let somebody start a thread on pricing.
Me, me, me. And I have to admit that it was one of the best college courses I ever took that wasn't related to my major at all.
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Old Oct 29, 2017, 7:42 pm
  #44  
 
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I have successfully bid for an upgrade on VS and don't think it weakened the product, nor did I advertise it to those who paid more. The fact is that J price is (usually) inflated and counting on a bid or JCM working is not guaranteed to a clientele who for sure want it. There was no way I was paying $5K SFO<>LHR but I did pay $600 + $800 + $800 pretty happily to fly in J. I did not get the seat I wanted and on the way out I had to sit next to a spoiled brat kid but still I think it's a good hybrid of keeping the product premium and making money on a seat that might have gone unsold or to a non-rev. I don't think it degrades the product. I think the worn out cushions on the D1 seat on ~30 year old 767's degrade the product. But, what do I know? Without a doubt, microeconomics was my absolute worst class in college -- by far.
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Old Oct 29, 2017, 8:00 pm
  #45  
 
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Originally Posted by runninaway
You do realize you've just given an example that supports the theory that last minute discounting depresses regular priced sales?
No, because I wouldn't go to the game otherwise myself (and I have relied on the $5 tickets at Nats stadium and then sit with my friends in better seats). Also, they are getting lots of extra revenue from the beer I buy that they would otherwise not get.
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