Empty Delta One Seats, No Upgrade List, But no Paid Upgrades? (RDU-CDG)
#31
Suspended
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: DCA
Programs: UA US CO AA DL FL
Posts: 50,262
BA plays this game both ways and has managed to anger its HVC's in the process. Like non-US carriers, it does not offer freebie UG's on any routes and certainly not on its international 3-4 class services. But, it offers all manner of UG mechanisms to the point that many devised strategies to routinely fly in F/J with paid PE/Y tickets and that became the norm.
When BA started using a sophisticated algorithm to offer cheap-ish UG's to specific customers and not always, at that, there was a howl. But, what it had done was identify passengers who, if given a "taste of the good life" were more likely than the average passenger to pay for it in future.
That is a loss leader. A cheap UG develops a passenger willing to pay, at least on occasion, for the product.
But, any product which can be routinely gamed, especially on DL where there is only J (D1) and no F, is an invitation to cutting revenue overall.
Passengers look at this from an individual and often one-off perspective (same thing with SDC). But, the carrier looks at overall RM/IM and PRASM. Routinely flying people in D1 on discounted Y tickets + a bit of cash is a bad long-term prescription.
Flying your employees in D1 does not affect anything. DL is not competing for their business and the it can make an employee quite happy without spending much.
When BA started using a sophisticated algorithm to offer cheap-ish UG's to specific customers and not always, at that, there was a howl. But, what it had done was identify passengers who, if given a "taste of the good life" were more likely than the average passenger to pay for it in future.
That is a loss leader. A cheap UG develops a passenger willing to pay, at least on occasion, for the product.
But, any product which can be routinely gamed, especially on DL where there is only J (D1) and no F, is an invitation to cutting revenue overall.
Passengers look at this from an individual and often one-off perspective (same thing with SDC). But, the carrier looks at overall RM/IM and PRASM. Routinely flying people in D1 on discounted Y tickets + a bit of cash is a bad long-term prescription.
Flying your employees in D1 does not affect anything. DL is not competing for their business and the it can make an employee quite happy without spending much.
#32
Suspended
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: DCA
Programs: UA US CO AA DL FL
Posts: 50,262
I'm a lawyer with his own practice and I've done work far below the market rate if people ask me last minute and I'm already at the courthouse. May as well, I'm there and it was more than I was planning to get anyway. Doesn't cheapen my brand but it does make people happy and it's scored me some repeat business.
That is the UG problem on DL. Once the total ticket price (Y/C+ as well as the D1 supplement) gets out, that becomes the price of a D1 ticket and people who pay more complain (even though they get the certainty of a D1 seat).
#33
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: TYS
Programs: Delta, AA, Hilton
Posts: 149
I remember on the first day of my college intro to econ class, the professor gave a very similar example.
From what I recall, there are definitely short-term vs long-term economic implications. If, at the gate, DL thinks on the margin, they should sell the ticket at a price above the cost of extra food, extra fuel, etc that a D1 seat requires. However, as has been mentioned, they can't keep doing this, or else it would significantly decrease longer-term profits.
Oh, and there's the non-monetary cost of an unhappy non-rev
From what I recall, there are definitely short-term vs long-term economic implications. If, at the gate, DL thinks on the margin, they should sell the ticket at a price above the cost of extra food, extra fuel, etc that a D1 seat requires. However, as has been mentioned, they can't keep doing this, or else it would significantly decrease longer-term profits.
Oh, and there's the non-monetary cost of an unhappy non-rev
As for giving seats to non-revs, I agree there's an intangible benefit. It's a benefit that probably keeps some employees happy and makes them more likely to stay with DL, just like F upgrades keep some medallions flying on DL. That said, I do think they need to find a mechanism to fill the seats if there are any left after non-revs clear. Either go to medallions after the non-revs (make a DM happy and more likely to buy DL for future intl) or use some kind of FCM.
I understand the argument about FCM cheapening the product, but if it's done only after all non-rev upgrades clear (which seems unlikely on most flights), I don't think that it would. If your vacation/work budget is large enough to afford the $4k fare difference between Y and J, are you really going to roll the dice on a < 5% chance you can buy Y and FCM into J? OTOH, I'm absolutely *not* going to pay the extra $4k up front, but I might consider a $500 FCM offer.
#34
Join Date: May 2015
Location: ATL
Programs: DL DM, GOES
Posts: 711
I've got an incorporation/tax question... since you're here reading this....
#35
In Memoriam, FlyerTalk Evangelist
Original Poster
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Durham, NC (RDU/GSO/CLT)
Programs: AA EXP/MM, DL GM, UA Platinum, HH DIA, Hyatt Explorist, IHG Platinum, Marriott Titanium, Hertz PC
Posts: 33,857
#36
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: London
Posts: 729
I remember on the first day of my college intro to econ class, the professor gave a very similar example.
From what I recall, there are definitely short-term vs long-term economic implications. If, at the gate, DL thinks on the margin, they should sell the ticket at a price above the cost of extra food, extra fuel, etc that a D1 seat requires. However, as has been mentioned, they can't keep doing this, or else it would significantly decrease longer-term profits.
Oh, and there's the non-monetary cost of an unhappy non-rev
From what I recall, there are definitely short-term vs long-term economic implications. If, at the gate, DL thinks on the margin, they should sell the ticket at a price above the cost of extra food, extra fuel, etc that a D1 seat requires. However, as has been mentioned, they can't keep doing this, or else it would significantly decrease longer-term profits.
Oh, and there's the non-monetary cost of an unhappy non-rev
If its a solid quarter - why cheapen your product for short term gain if you dont really need to? The airlines change their pricing - and quantity of pricing at each level - based on demand all the time. i.e. more seats available in Z/I buckets if its a slow period of the year. Why make more seats available in Z if you don't need to?
Selling paid upgrades is just an extension of this. Having available seat(s) at T-24 just allows the extensive analysis to begin to determine if to offer a paid upgrade on the day, and if so, at what price.
Incidentally, myself & colleagues regularly travel between MSP/LHR and know at certain times of the year on certain days if Z class goes down to 0, there is a good chance it'll come back. Other times we notice Z class appears to be at 0 from many months out and waiting for Z to reappear is too much of a risk - i.e. get in before I/D/C classes go as J class is too expensive and you risk flying down the back!
Of course, Z class regularly reappearing could just be cancellations however the regularity of seeing Z class come back, and the seats maps not changing, makes it likely this is just DL making additional inventory available at lower fare levels.
#37
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: SAV
Programs: Atlanta's hometown airline. A bunch of hotel programs. PetSmart PetPerks.
Posts: 2,531
I'm quite familiar w TravelNet and was curious to see if there was a publicly-accessible tool that showed that same level of detail. Thanks.
#38
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Mostly living in the basement
Programs: Newly minted free agent; MR LT(!)TE, HH SE, BA SECM, DL MM, UA PS, 2V Fanboi, CBP GE
Posts: 5,110
Put another way, the market isn't there for the $1000+ prices that domestic F used to sell for. FCM is perhaps better called "Price Correction".
#39
In Memoriam, FlyerTalk Evangelist
Original Poster
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Durham, NC (RDU/GSO/CLT)
Programs: AA EXP/MM, DL GM, UA Platinum, HH DIA, Hyatt Explorist, IHG Platinum, Marriott Titanium, Hertz PC
Posts: 33,857
Checked in for my return flights. KLM sold me an upgrade for $625 for AMS-JFK. Yay the system I prefer
#40
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Northern Calif./Eastern Ida.
Programs: Amethyst Premier Plutonium Medallion
Posts: 20,664
while this thread raises a valid complaint, DL's policy is what it is. they don't sell these seats for cash DOD upgrades. i've asked many, many times on relatively empty D1 flights from PDX to AMS and always been told "nope, we don't do that". it's a shame because the new redemption costs for mileage upgrades are so outrageous that they are completely out of reach for folks who don't maintain 7 figure SM balances on the regular...but it is what it is.
#41
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 7,876
I'm a lawyer with his own practice and I've done work far below the market rate if people ask me last minute and I'm already at the courthouse. May as well, I'm there and it was more than I was planning to get anyway. Doesn't cheapen my brand but it does make people happy and it's scored me some repeat business.
I guess it is about commoditization of a product.
#42
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: SEA
Programs: Million Miles achieved | 2017 Delta Platinum, United NADA, Global Entry, PreCheck, NEXUS
Posts: 1,295
The argument isn't against cheapening the product, the argument is that the airline makes less revenue when they offer buy-ups. Because some passengers rely on buy-ups instead of buying a J ticket.
As you have shown, people eavesdrop at the gate. If someone that paid $5000 for a J ticket heard you buying an upgrade for $500, they might say 'next time I will just do that.'
Nobody says 'next time I will just be the captain's wife.'
As you have shown, people eavesdrop at the gate. If someone that paid $5000 for a J ticket heard you buying an upgrade for $500, they might say 'next time I will just do that.'
Nobody says 'next time I will just be the captain's wife.'
#43
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: IND
Programs: DL PM & 2MM™, Lifetime HHonors Diamond
Posts: 20,891
Me, me, me. And I have to admit that it was one of the best college courses I ever took that wasn't related to my major at all.
#44
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: MSN
Programs: Delta DM, Bonvoy LT Titanium, Hertz PC
Posts: 1,987
I have successfully bid for an upgrade on VS and don't think it weakened the product, nor did I advertise it to those who paid more. The fact is that J price is (usually) inflated and counting on a bid or JCM working is not guaranteed to a clientele who for sure want it. There was no way I was paying $5K SFO<>LHR but I did pay $600 + $800 + $800 pretty happily to fly in J. I did not get the seat I wanted and on the way out I had to sit next to a spoiled brat kid but still I think it's a good hybrid of keeping the product premium and making money on a seat that might have gone unsold or to a non-rev. I don't think it degrades the product. I think the worn out cushions on the D1 seat on ~30 year old 767's degrade the product. But, what do I know? Without a doubt, microeconomics was my absolute worst class in college -- by far.
#45
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: DCA/IAD/WAS
Programs: MAR AMB, WOH Explorist, AA EXP, UA 2P
Posts: 2,139
No, because I wouldn't go to the game otherwise myself (and I have relied on the $5 tickets at Nats stadium and then sit with my friends in better seats). Also, they are getting lots of extra revenue from the beer I buy that they would otherwise not get.