FireEmblemPride

I think the only event that would preserve a sizable DL presence in Japan is the increase of HND slots. It's not likely they will ever get enough slots to replicate what they have even at this very moment, but if DL can secure just three more daytime slots - for SEA, DTW and ATL or JFK, then HND will become a LHR-style point-to-point destination while ICN and PVG take care of the rest. If overnight slots become available, maybe DL pushes for a HND-HNL service too.

But yeah, as a resident of Japan it's just sad to see how rapidly DL is pulling out. Long term, it may even be a mistake. Every major route DL has pulled out of without a major LCC presence (BKK, LAX, JFK) has been picked up by either JL or NH. NH is starting a 3rd daily TYO-LAX, JL increased capacity to JFK and NH increased NRT-BKK as well.

commavia

The challenge, though, is that of course Delta is almost certainly not going to get anywhere near that level of access to HND - anytime soon, likely ever. That would first of all require the Japanese government to open up the airport to U.S. carriers far more broadly than it has yet been willing to do, and then it would (likely) require the U.S. government explicitly favoring Delta over multiple other U.S. competitors to a level the U.S. government has yet been willing to do. At this point, TYO is destined to become a "LHR-style point-to-point destination" for Delta no matter what - and in that regard, it's suboptimal but hardly deadly for Delta to run split ops across NRT and HND.

Right, but again, that was going to happen, anyway. There was no route from Japan where Delta was ever going to be the natural, dominant competitor up against multiple local Japanese (if not also other Asian) carriers. The only reason Delta even sustained much of the beyond-NRT flying for as long as it did was that it did not, until recently, have a very good alternative. Now it does. DTW+SEA+ICN provides Delta with the opportunity to access virtually all of the same traffic flows Northwest used to handle - plus many more - and do so far more efficiently.

FireEmblemPride

Actually, there are more HND slots to be allocated right before 2020. Given how aggressive the US was with the last slot increase, I can't foresee an increase of anything less than the doubling of slots on both sides (currently 5 each including evening slots).

If that's the case, then there would be 5 slots up for grabs again on the US end. In such a situation, DL would get no fewer than 3 slots by virtue of UA and AA's JVs. That would allow it to move SEA, DTW and ATL over, or perhaps restart JFK. The Japan head manager for DL has gone on record with the Japanese media stating that HND-JFK is a desired route in the future; I'm uncertain about the future of ATL-TYO given that ICN is now double daily and PVG is starting soon. If one of them's an evening slot, then nix ATL/JFK in favor of HNL.

I'm not even concerned about intra-Asia. That DL refuses to compete on a route like JFK-TYO is just puzzling. They are certainly a "natural competitor" at JFK and LAX.

SSF556

But but I have been told by many here on FT...that Delta is an international powerhouse of an airline not just a domestic airline that dabbles in international flights...

Often1

Most of this thread ignores the JV with KE. This means that there is effective revenue-sharing and zero reason to serve a dwindling market.

Anybody who thinks that DL ought to serve a route now because NW did in the past, ought to call NW customer service. The phone just rings and rings and rings.

Indeed DL has a loyal base in GUM, but it only has a population of approx. 160,000. That is the size of a small-to-midsize market with no cachement area around. The route needs Japanese tourism to survive and that is dying off.

stencil

Are you saying that tourism to Japan is down? If so you'd be so, so wrong.

https://www.tourism.jp/en/tourism-da...nbound/#annual

KDCAflyer

I don't get why this is such a big deal. NRT is done. KE serves GUM, so DL will naturally route US-GUM pax via ICN. This was pretty much expected IMO.

I think it would be worth doing some marketing in Guam on DL's part. Emphasize that KE will allow pax to connect to DL's network.

commavia

We'll see. Given the trials and tribulations of getting to where we are with U.S.-HND access, I'll very much believe it when I see it.

I think that is highly, highly debatable. Personally, I am skeptical of the DOT awarding nearly half of the (hypothetical) HND frequencies available to U.S. carriers to a single airline when there are at least three others just as interested in their use. We have seen in the HND and ATI filings to date that Delta's arguments about needing special treatment because of its disadvantage relative to AA/JAL and United/ANA only go so far.

Yeah, and lots of Delta executives - up to and including the CEO - have "gone on record" about Delta's "desire" for lots more access to HND. We see how that worked out.

There is no way ATL-TYO is going anywhere. We're talking about a route linking the largest airline hub on earth to the largest population center on earth. JV or no JV, NRT hub or no NRT hub, ATL-TYO is safe.

Delta obviously does still serve the LAX-TYO market, but I agree on NYC-TYO - I, too, find it somewhat remarkable that Delta has exited that route completely.

stencil

This is what's making me move away from Delta. I am, of course, a tiny sample size, but as most of my travel is from NYC to LAX, SFO, and TYO, Delta really sucks for me these days. No upgrades and no directs - even with partners - to TYO.

FireEmblemPride

There is no other way it can possibly play out, unless AA or UA decide to serve HND from ATL, DTW or SEA or that the DOT decides that redundant service from OW or *A is more appropriate than DL serving its hubs. The last *A hubs without HND service are IAH, DEN, IAD and EWR. For OW, the major ones are ORD and DFW. That's only 6 slots right there, assuming NH doesn't want to serve SFO itself or JL with LAX.

Hawaiian getting a third slot is seriously unlikely unless no one wants a potential evening slot.

jinabe

DL would not admit it, but this is yet another downsizing of DL NRT operation. Oh yeah, they also closed one of the two DL Sky Lounges at NRT in May. Sad.

FlyingUnderTheRadar

It certainly is speculation when the last paragraph states: Meanwhile, Delta Air Lines continues to operate a single daily flight between Tokyo and Japan.

commavia

Yes, there definitely is another way it could play out. I view it as highly unlikely that DOT's foremost motivation will be facilitating Delta's consolidation of its TYO service at HND. That's Delta's goal, but it need not be the DOT's goal. More likely, I think, is that the DOT continues its approach of "spreading the wealth." Delta will likely continue to be successful at arguing that it should get a higher share of limited Japan access vs AA/UA because it doesn't have a JV, but Delta getting essentially half of all the (again, hypothetical) available HND frequencies, with the other half shared among AA, United and Hawaiian? I doubt it highly.

rylan

I remember when there was a widebody on NRT-GUM rotation, and it was full.

hockeyinsider

Except I challenge Delta to prove the loads were light. If the loads were light they would have reduced frequency to Guam from twice-daily to once-daily or even five days a week. Saipan gets mostly South Koreans. There is no reason for Delta to eliminate Guam's twice-daily flights from Narita but keep once-daily flights to Saipan, where the majority of visitors are South Koreans and there is no military base or federal government travelers.