I don't think too many people flying to IST on TK are going to/from Turkey. Rather, they are connecting somewhere, most likely India but possibly the middle east. Delta could not really compete with that, and the feed at their US hub (JFK or ATL) would not compensate.

OP here. What is the point indeed. Well, when I saw the elimination of BKK, it got me thinking about destinations no longer served. So I made a list. I picked the merger not to insinuate this was because of the merger, but because I needed a line in the sand, and that seemed like a good one.

Yes, all these destinations are served by partners, and that's all well and good. But as a Delta elite, I prefer to fly Delta.

It's not to say I'm packing bags and finding another airline. Not that I'm suggesting they fly to unprofitable destinations. Im not asking for a return to the days of airlines as charity cases. I'm just lamenting destinations lost, and starting a conversation.

Nwa used to fly msp-osl, nrt-pus and nrt-fuk.

I think they also tried Samoa and one other crazy destination from nrt during the hours when the 757's would have been otherwise sitting idle on the ground at nrt.

obviously
 

the vast majority of those people going USA - IST on Turkish are not just going to Istanbul - they're mostly going onward. That said, all of those seats that Turkish has added ARE available for sale for USA-IST (or other destinations). Putting that many seats into the market does have an impact on the price of those seats. Having all those extra seats going to Turkey, but not the demand to turkey, has an impact on the price of seats to Turkey in general. It has a downward impact on general USA-Turkey prices (way lower). And there's nothing that anybody can do to raise those prices. So, delta cannot do anything but match those prices. All was well and good back in the day when Turkish only flew 1x/day to JFK, maybe a daily flight to Miami, and a few days a week to Chicago. There were relatively few seats, and Delta represented a consistent way to get there - they could charge higher prices. Now they can't. There are way more seats in the market to Turkey Prices are lower. Yes, Turkish has to take those fares too. But they can also take (hopefully higher) higher yielding fares too onward to some obscure destinations but also to their whole network. Delta cannot do that. They're stuck taking the cheap USA- Turkey fares. And that doesn't work for Delta anymore. That's reality.

QUOTE=cbn42;27061760]I don't think too many people flying to IST on TK are going to/from Turkey. Rather, they are connecting somewhere, most likely India but possibly the middle east. Delta could not really compete with that, and the feed at their US hub (JFK or ATL) would not compensate.[/QUOTE]

Yes Jason, you can keep posting as if we were in a vacuum, and the last 15 years did not happen. DL has pulled the route and TK now has 14x a day to North America. We all know that.

However, what I have attempted to explain (and have been writing about for a decade), is why Delta lost this market, and it is not due to TK's buildup as that is fairly recent, and DL gave its marketshare away.

You have a point to places like LAX regarding the huge number of transfer passengers, where I doubt O/D is more than 20%, however IST-JFK has the second highest O/D load factor in their entire long haul system, over 50%. I am not making this up, you can see the numbers posted at CAPA. And again, I can tell you from personal experience that there have never been the fire sales that you say are there (other than the last month or so, due to the bombings and Coup attempt).

I have flown to Turkey three times for $450 RT or less in the past 5 years on SkyTeam. IST was THE mileage run destination before the switch to revenue based programs. The fire sales went on for years...and I am sure many in the forum would agree. I actually find current fares to IST to be on the high side.

how exactly
 

Did Delta just give the market share away? I don't agree with your analysis.

And as pgh alludes to, there HAVE been cheap fares to IST for years.

I've never paid more than $500 or $600 roundtrip from DC for at least the last 10 years.

How am I posting like we've been in a vacuum? I'm telling you what happened in the market.

Turkish has been expanding in North america for years, adding tons of seats while the market USA-Turkey hasn't grown accordingly. That dilutes fares. TK competes by selling beyond Turkey, while those going just to Turkey (DL, and UA for the brief season it was there) are left with the lower diluted fares only.

DL didnt do anything different in Turkey than it did in other markets such as Germany or Italy. Or any other European market. The big difference is that those markets didjtn have irrational carriers that added seats to a market that couldn't absorb them, that's all.

Delta did what it could it in Turkey, but was powerless to stop the massive/ irrational growth of Turkish, which is ultimately what did it in in the market.