Your experiment is not based on probabilities but rather on raw numbers.

To do this correctly, since I am flying 10 flights, so should you.

Or alternatively, we both fly one flight.

Remember, the proposition was, the probability of not getting your meal on a flight is independent of the number of passengers on that flight, ceteris paribus.

His experiment certainly is based on probabilities. As the number of samples goes up, the more likely the true probability will be represented in the results.

You're proposing to do a one-time experiment and then use anecdotal evidence to settle the question. Not exactly a statistically valid proposal.

I once saw a purser's seat map on SQ in IFC marked with *really large* $$$ signs, hearts, and diamonds.

I propose to do as many experiments as you like. Arguing central limit theorem is not on point.

The probability of being unhappy in meal choices on a flight is independent of the number of passengers, ceteris paribus.

The number of unhappy passengers increases as the number of passengers on the flight goes up.

The probability is invariant.

There is no anecdote involved. Its simple math.

Now, if you want to play the raw numbers game, I'm in. You fly 1 trip, I fly 1 trip - you with 100 and me with 10. I pay you $10 for each unhappy passenger and you pay me $10 for each unhappy passenger.

Lather rinse repeat - as many times as you want.

I win, you lose.

which is why Delta needs to change the way the system works. If you paid for F you get a decent meal and get to order ahead of time. If you bought a cheap sLUT fare and get a comp upgrade, you can have that PB&J Sammy. I don't know why so many people have a problem with that. I would love for DL to do that. Also, if you do get a comp upgrade, let it be an option in your itineraries section to upgrade your meal option at a cost.

And my experiment is exactly that, the probability of (not) getting what you want under specific assumptions, with the only difference being the number of "passengers" on each flight.

Proof by blatant assertion.

Proof by blatant assertion.

The math says you're wrong. I suggested a simple experiment to prove it.

Perhaps you are unaware, despite it being mentioned before, that Delta advertises "First Class Upgrades", not "Upgrades to a front cabin seat with less-than-First-Class service".

LOL This thread certainly has its share of probe-ability and sadistical inference. :D

There's a good chance that the elite with the free upgrade doesn't ahve a sLUT(XV) fare but rather has paid more for his/her ticket than the person who "paid" for FC. Compare G A P fares to Y B M.

But your experiment is based on numbers, not probabilities. Play again?

And just to be clear, the experiment should reflect the proposition that with preordering available, those who do not are worse off because the chance of not getting their meal choice goes up as the number of passengers on that flight goes down.

It's about probability on a flight, one flight different numbers of passengers, not different number of flights with the same cumulative number of passengers.

It's the 10 and 100 passenger flight, not the 1 and 10 flights with a total of 100 passengers.

Something i wondered about since the thread started: what about those who paid more in Y ( even in Y- if Y+ was already full ) as some customers up front? I guess that there are many, many flights with people in the back who paid 2x/3x more for tickets bought within 48 hours of the flight the most of the so called "paid 1st class" customers? Shouldn't these customers getting first choice on dinner selection...?

These "I am more entitled because..." threads start out amusing, then grow tedious as the content becomes repetitiously redundant. :D

But, like any unfolding disaster, it is hard not to watch. :D:D

"I bought a full F fare, with my own money. I did so 6 weeks out. And, my heart was pure when I did so. I'm also a double DM and a 3 MM. So, I demand first meal choice!!!"

I don't know why this is even a debate. What's next, upgrades only get the bulkhead, or the non-reclining rear seat? They only get the coach wine, instead of the FC wine? The FA swaps out the Malin+Goetz hand soap for the economy soap whenever they see an upgrade passenger approach the lav?

FC is FC. Period. Deal with it. If I'm an upgrade and take the last of the meal option that a FC revenue passenger wanted, oh well. That's life. Being able to preorder your food would fix this "problem" anyway, which is what this thread is supposed to be about.