DA201

I don't think DL will pull MSP/PDX/ATL/DTW-NRT anytime soon because the reality of the situation is that there is no better alternative for current passengers on those routes. No one is connecting from the US through PDX, so all of the passengers there are going to Tokyo or connecting through NRT on DL. There won't be a nonstop HND-PDX, and people will prefer NRT-PDX over HND-SFO/LAX-PDX. Same goes for MSP, DTW, and ATL. However, these markets have a lot of connecting passengers in the US. But, ATL will be the only airport in the Southeast to have nonstop service to Tokyo, so it will still be more convenient for many, and flying to Haneda will most likely cost more than flying to Narita, so connecting through MSP or DTW will end up being cheaper which passengers like.

RealHJ

(bolding mine)
That is what it's all about always with you, isn't it?
The only thing you care about is yourself and that is the very myopic perspective from which you always look at things.

But it is clearly and obviously in the best interests of the traveling public, and of the US economy. Adding such capacity and potentially driving down flight prices will add more jobs and result in higher tax revenues for the local and federal government, due to higher numbers of the traveling public coming to the US.

Cannibalizing NRT routes and shifting those to HND will not add net new traffic and will not bring additional business to US businesses. It'll only help the airlines increase prices, and thus is directly against the interests of the traveling public.

As always, you blatantly ignore the facts. The TYO-HNL route has, by far, the highest numbers of the traveling public flying on it, and while not an overwhelming majority, it is the largest part, by far, of the traveling public on any US -Japan route that would be the most positively impacted by the added capacity (which would lead to price downward pressure, and add US jobs and US federal and local gov't tax revenues).

ROCAT

The route should go to what will benefit the US economy the most which would be letting HAL run a KOA run. Japanese tourists is HI spend in insane amount of money and are coming to the Big Island in record levels.

Kevin Liu

The reality is this is never going to happen.
It is not UA or AA's fault that they have partner in Japan and DL doesn't.
You can't justified the reason for DL to get three slots at all.....

langleyoaker

According to this link:
As the 4 current slot nighttime slots are being transferred to daytime, the question is whether DOT would strip any of those slots from the airlines currently holding them. If not there would only be one additional daytime and one new nighttime slot up for grabs.

pbarnette

Given the wording you quote, I suspect that they will not take the slots back from UA and AA. Doesn't mean they shouldn't. Certainly, though, the additional daytime slot should go to DL to maximize competition.

I never said it was UA or AA's fault. But, giving the slots to DL would increase competitors on the route from 2 to 3. I'm comfortable saying that increasing competition by 50% is reasonable justification.

Hawaii contributes roughly 0.5% of US GDP. Tourism in Hawaii is roughly 25% of the state GSP. A bit less than 30% of inbound Hawaii tourists are from Japan. I don't consider something on the order of 0.04% of GDP to be "insane" money or to be such a large economic driver as to make it obvious that providing additional slots to benefit Japanese tourists to be utility maximizing for the US as a whole.

Says the man selflessly shilling for flights from his home airport...

Again, says the man selflessly shilling for flights from his home airport...

Keep fighting the good fight. I know you are doing it for all of us, and at great personal loss.

See above. We are talking about a tiny portion of the US economy.

If it isn't adding (or reducing) capacity, and isn't driving demand, how will it increase prices?

I said "US traveling public". The Japanese authorities can worry about what best serves their constituents and grant authorities to Hawaii if they so choose. No reason for the US to give up their slots so Japanese tourists can golf on the Big Island.

RealHJ

Tell that to the American employees at the Big Island golf club whose job may depend on it.

Kevin Liu

"TECHNICALLY" you still have 3 airlines competing even if DL gets 1 slot
I think AA and UA still want to transport pax using their own metal instead of depending on JL and NH as the actual "revenue" may be very different
I'm not seeing how DL can go against it and I tend to believe that's why they are threatening to reduce flights to Tokyo

pbarnette

Talk about the tail wagging the dog.

But tell you what, I'm happy to explain it to them. I'll get on that right after you explain to some guy in Kansas that would benefit from a better connection via ORD why he has to sacrifice for somebody giving golf lessons in Hawaii.

pbarnette

Why should DL, the DOT, or the public generally care that AA and UA did a lousy job structuring their JVs?

ATOBTTR

If the DOT wants to do what's in the best interests of the traveling public, it should be working with Japanese authorities to do away with all the restrictions currently in place and allow airlines to obtain HND slots and operate how they (the airlines) see best based on what the market will support. The only thing that should be limiting factor is airport capacity at HND. Let the free market decide what's best and what works and what doesn't.

^

Kevin Liu

DOT cares as it is part of "fair" competition for all the US carriers to be awarded slots
plus, slots don't have to be operated and can be sold (Oman recently bought a slot from AF/KL for 75M)
plus, the "general public" will prefer not to let DL alone get 3 slots if you define the public as the pax (which should be fair as the only ones who care are the ones who fly...)
Consider the pax transport by DL, AA, and UA in 2015, the pax transported by AA+UA is roughly 2x of DL
so isn't this kind of obvious ..... ?

pbarnette

Wasn't one of the rationales behind approving the TPAC JVs that it allowed the JVs to coordinate their schedules? Are you saying it is most "fair" to now ignore such coordination that will effectively give AA and UA 5 slots to be shared between them?

These won't be salable under any conceivable scenario. However, I would actually support an open auction of the slots and route rights. I would support an auction even if it meant all but one carrier were locked out.

If UA and AA didn't have JVs, yes it would be obvious. Since they don't, no it isn't obvious that passengers wouldn't prefer the lower prices a 3rd competitor would likely bring. The DOT routinely takes competitive considerations when making these decisions and ensuring there are three carriers (or JVs) with equal access is the decision that maximizes competition.

Fanjet

The job of the DOT in this matter is to make decisions based on what is best for the travelling public. But more importantly, the American traveling public. How much a route will boost the local economy is the domain of the local officials and the Chamber of Commerce. I don't see how awarding KOA-HND is even close to being more beneficial to the American traveler than say ATL-HND or JFK-HND. Or MSP-HND for that matter.

motytrah

All of this is irrelevant. It's an open secret that DL is on the path of overflying NRT. They have been closing TPAC crew bases and have been replacing full time workers with temp contractors in NRT for years. Frankly DL is lucky they got what they did.