When do prices hit rock-bottom?
 

I want to take a transatlantic cruise from the US to Europe in April.

Many ships are making the crossing, and I'm flexible and would be happy on any, but would prefer Royal Caribbean or Celebrity. Also, I can leave on any date.

So . . .

When do you think prices will hit rock bottom?


In advance, thanks for your help.

24 hours after you pull the trigger.

call the cruise line & ask what cabins are available in the category you want.....if lots are available, wait for a last minute deal.....or, if you see what you want in your price range, book it and don't sweat the small stuff.....good luck...

I tend to watch www.vacationstogo.com, but learned that at least Celebrity can have the very same sale rate on their own site.

It is pretty much basic "supply and demand" economics for the answer to your question. And clacko had a good suggestion for getting an idea about the direction things are headed.

Romelle

what price are seeing for what you want? [# of nights, usd pp]....

edit to add....better yet, provide ship, dates, cabin class, & price....good luck...

Thanks for your ideas . . .
 

Thanks to everyone for your ideas.

I'm hopping to find a 14 night cruise for around $400 - $450 for an inside cabin. The Europe to USA sailings had rates as low as $299 a few weeks before the crossing.

Right now, there are rates at $599 for window. but the Celebrity Equinox is still at $999 for an inside cabin and slightly more for outside cabin. That's the ship I'd prefer.

If you are the gambling type, look at 30 days before sailing and again 14 days before.

Spring '09 I saw $299 on Royal Caribbean and $399 on Celebrity at the 30 day mark (of course not including port taxes). Both of those sailing though were San Juan departures.

I don't think we'll see the same low prices this year that we saw in 2009.

Have you (OP) checked if the CL's have any price guarantees to see if you want to work that angle?
We booked our E. Carib RCI cruise about 11months in advance. They have a price protection guarantee where if you make final payment and the cruise price goes down, you get the difference in onboard credit. We ended up with $500USD in onboard credit when we finally sailed in Dec09. Surprisingly, we were able to get unspent credit (only about $25) refunded on the last day.

Also, if you're a "gambler", if you think the cruise isn't going to be full, you can also just book an inside or outside guarantee and hope for an upgrade. Alaska cruises in 09 were hurting so we grabbed one of the many deals and we were upgraded from inside to outside on Celebrity Millennium. And for our December cruise, where we watched prices fall, we were upgraded from inside to a inside promenade cabin on Liberty OTS.

Possible. The variable is that there seems to have been a bunch of new ships launched in 2009 that added a chunk of capacity. Granted tho, the extra capacity doesn't translate like extra hotel capacity in a city.

A great site to see all available cabins (not just the 6 or so you can check on Travelocity & co.) is www.sea-scanner.com

To OP -- Celebrity and RCCL are amongst the very few cruiselines which will give you all reductions that show up after booking -- up until boarding. (Exception are special sales offered only for new bookings.) So, even if you've booked, you can still get the reduction amount (generally in OBC) for the cruise.

If you are looking at the Celebrity Constellation for April (Miami-Hamburg) -- there are still a lot of cabins available. There may be even more until just before final payment is due on January 31st. (The ship goes into drydock at the end of this cruise and some people may get "cold feet" as to the condition of the ship.) We're booked and going!:D

I know that at least Holland America also gives you reductions that come up between booking and final payment. Also, I was excited to learn about sea-scanner until I saw how few cruise lines are represented there!

I also don't think some of the '09 sales will likely be seen again this year and would also counsel against leaving a decision until last minute as often what if anything is gained on the cruise front may as easily and quickly be lost on the airfare front. Just MHO.

You may have this covered, but if you need one-way tickets for the transatlantic cruise, I had good luck with:

www.OneTravel.com

for the transatlantic flight MSP-BCN.

I was able to use an airline site directly for the return MIA-MSP.

Romelle

As was mentioned earlier, RCCL and Celebrity both have very strong policies of allowing fare reductions to be passed to passengers, even after final payment, the one exception being "Happy Hour" rates (also called Sales Event on RCCL and Xciting Deals on Celebrity). These Happy Hour fares are typically on Tuesdays, though agents get access to them the previous Thursday/Friday. Usually, they are for sailings within 4-6 weeks of sailing, though I've seen some even just a few days prior.

Because you're dealing with one way TATL fares, I'd suggest finding the one you want and going ahead and booking. While you may not have the absolute best fare, that airfare last minute can be killer.

By the way, if your agent knows how to manipulate the data in the agent One Stop files correctly, and is highly familiar with it and Happy Hour trends, one can get a pretty good idea of which sailings are likely to go on Happy Hour. Feel free to send me your preferred itineraries and I can take a look for you and give you my best estimate of likelihood.

Thanks for your help scoping out best fares
 

Thanks for your kind effort to help scope out best fares.

Our first choice is the April 19 sailing on Celebrity Equinox, FFL to Rome.

Second choice is Ruby Princess, April 19, FLL to Barcelona.

Third choice is Independence of the Seas, Arpil 11, FLL to Southhampton.

Also, all else equal, we'd like to book from the Delta site to get the 10,000 miles for a 14-night sailing.

Our last crossing was on the Independence, a great ship, but ht Equinox looks really nice!

Princess doesn't post availability in the same way that Royal Caribbean and Celebrity do, so can't give you a best guess on Flash fares there. But happy to help on the Equinox and Independence.

For the Equinox, I'd say right now it's a 40/60 chance it will go on Happy Hour after final payment date. It's showing as selling right on track, which tends not to go on Happy Hour, but sometimes does. We're still a bit more than a month early for that determination to be made, so it will depend on January bookings, which is traditionally the busiest month of the year in the cruise business for new bookings.

On the Independence of the Seas, it is also showing the same status indication, so odds are also just a bit less than 50/50 for that. Of course the Independence being a larger ship, there are more cabins to be sold, and on average, Royal Caribbean tends to put sailings on Happy Hour specials more readily than Celebrity does, so I'd estimate your chances are better with the Independence.

I have no idea if Delta Vacations accesses Happy Hour fares for their clients or not or if they're familiar with them. They're not cruise specialists ;) But of course I understand the desire for more RDMs!

too late unfortunately, prices have been going up some. revenues last summer were great IIRC.

make sure to check every cruiseline. for example there are some itins where regent is slightly more expensive than silversea. :rolleyes:

Recently Costa has great rates for Caribbean sailings.

Since Carnival came up with the Early Saver program, that seems to be the best deal so far. It has very good rate, and if the rate goes down up to just before sailing, you can get the difference in OBC. They no longer give OBC for non-ES rates after final payment.

Having just done the inaugural transatlantic on Equinox from Rome to Ft. Lauderdale, it doesn't just "look" nice -- we think it is a beautiful ship! Although the sailing was really pretty full, we never had the feeling that it was crowded. It's not a "gaudy" ship, but oozes a lot of elegance. Great public spaces and seating. Hot glass show was wonderful. Cabins are really comfortable (we had a 1A balcony), but don't offer a lot of storage for clothes (luggage itself fits easily under the beds). The bathrooms are much improved from then M class of Celebrity. We found the dining room seating to be a bit packed -- tables too close to each other. Select dining has finally been adopted by Celebrity, but is still having quite a few "hiccups". You can make your reservations online in advance, but those appearing without reservations will be seated anyway (and you, with your reservations, may have to wait -- especially if you want to have dinner at around 7:30.)

My suggestion would be to keep checking. There will be some great prices in April.

Thanks for sharing your insight. We, too, have been "monitorting", from a public perspective, the Equinox April Transatlantic. This is one of those sailings that, for the right price, we will jump on. If it doesn't go on Happy Hour, we'll just sit back and wait for another opportunity. The November 2009 westbound TATL had some juicy Happy Hour rates, however both Solstice and Equinox sailed this route whereas only Equinox will do a spring TATL.

I, too, have noticed what seems to be space galore on Constellation Spring TATL, so perhaps that will go on Happy Hour?

I'd rate that one as highly likely to go on Happy Hour at this time. Probably in about 3 weeks or so.

Do know there is one downside to that sailing, however, and that is that I believe she is going into dry dock for refurbishment immediately following. Passengers often complain about work starting during the sailing, shops not being fully stocked, etc., in that type of situation. Probably one of the reasons she's not booking as quickly as the other TATLs this spring.

If you have any questions, feel free to PM me :)

Thanks, Burbunny. The last cruise prior to refurbishment thing doesn't bother us at all. We are seasoned cruisers and sailed Summit TATL in Mar 08 just prior to her dry dock upon arrival in Europe. No worries! ;)

How do you know that? For which cruiseline or ship or itinerary?

Great Info . . . Let's Agree to Post Great Rate, OK?
 

Thanks to all of you for your help.

I'll continue to check various sites for great rates. If I find a great rate, I'll post it, and the site you can find it. If any of the rest of you would do the same, we can pool our efforts. Hope you'll be willing to share info about good deals to.

In advance, let's hope the spring sailing will be smooth. If any of you play bridge, we'll probably cross paths at sea.

I would book the cruise you want now, and then if the rates go down, have them change the rate. I booked a cruise last May at $1,040 per person, today the rate was adjusted down to $590 per person.

The reason to book early is many categories are already sold out, leaving only the higher priced cabins available. A good agent can work to get your rate lowered with some of the cruise lines, so ask what their experiences have been in doing that.

If you wait too long, you may be shut out, and if you book early on a line that lets you keep adjusting your cost as the price drops, you have nothing to lose.

just missed out on travelocity price of $229 for the Voyager sailing on April 18th. It's a transatlantic sailing, 14 days, we did it last year but not for $229. I called to book and was told the price was right but there were no more available. The agent advised me to keep watching it may post another sale. I never booked with Travelocity before. Does anyone know if they are honest to work with or is it just a "come-on" to sell you more expensive rooms? Last year we paid almost $500 for a balcony room (E1 category, nice aft balcony room) so $229 for a balcony room (x catagory guarantee) seems suspect. What do you think???

Very suspect as the category X cabins are still available for $990 plus tax (as of this very moment). The lowest inside is a category L for $579 plus tax.

just called RCCL and they said the price is real. They work directly with Travelocity and if the price is on the Yahoo travel site it's real. However, they do not match or offer the same price deals. RCCL says it was Travelocity's "happy hour" promotions. I called travelocity this morning as it was still listed at $229 and they told me it stays on the site for 24 hours but that they are all sold out at that price. I guess I'll keep watching. RCCL assured me if the cruise is booked through Travelocity it will be as guaranteed as f I booked with RCCL. My fears are now gone and I will be checking yahoo travel throughout the day, everyday. Would really love to do this trip again. Thanks for your advice and reply.

A Happy Hour promo would explain the big price difference, but they are only on Tuesdays. So I'm still a little surprised that the web site would still show it a few days later. I was just looking what was current and not past promos. Saying that, looking at the availability of the ship, I wouldn't be surprised to see it go on another Happy Hour (it isn't listed for this week's however). So the moral is keep checking.

Does the RCCL cruise out of San Juan not work for you? In my experience the San Juan transatlantics are cheaper and you have the benefit of usually warmer weather for most of the crossing.

One other consideration - RCCL (including Celebrity) say that they can raise their rates (after you book) by $10 a person per day if the price of oil per barrel is over $65 (I think) - and it has been over that amount for months. No word of if or when they might levy the surcharge. Not sure if all cruise lines reserve that right.

Pretty much yes, though in varying amounts by line.

Right now, all (except Disney who has reinstated for certain passengers booked more than a year ago) have stated they do not have plans at this point as they don't believe it is economically beneficial for them to do so in this climate, but my personal guess is if fuel goes over $90/bbl, they will reinstate.

In my experience the San Juan transatlantics are cheaper and you have the benefit of usually warmer weather for most of the crossing.


Thanks for the suggestion. Since we have family in the Miami area, it's better for us to leave from Miami or Fort Lauderdale. Since quite a few ships leave around the same time, our strategy is to wait until prices (hopefully) are very good, and select one of the several cruises then. But I have noticed that the non-US ports are significantly cheaper, at least right now.

Again, thanks for the suggestion.

We are considering a 13-day TATL from San Juan through the Canary Islands to Barcelona on Adventure of the Seas leaving 5/2. It is currently $499 pp for a "Q" class (inside guaranteed). This also includes up to $72 obc depending on who you book through. Since we put down a future cruise deposit last time we would end up with $272 obc. The $72 credit is with the TA offering all but $8 of their commission as obc. With the Happy Hour specials the TA's only receive around $10 commission so that would yield no obc. All things considered we may go ahead and jump on this so we can make our air rez and start planning. With the AA sale from the UK currently being discussed in the MR forum it almost makes sense to book LHR-US r/t for around $500 rather than BCN-US o/w for as much or more and then book a o/w from BCN to LHR. Then we could book a o/w LHR-US later in the fall when prices drop and actually get another trip out of this for around the same price as just the o/w from BCN.
Any opinions on how low this particular sailing may go? I'm guessing $299...
(sorry for all the abbreviations but I figured FT'ers would understand :p).

Considering the NCFs (included in the quoted fare) for a 13-night sailing are $219, and RCCL is holding the line a bit on prices, I expect that a Happy Hour (in a higher inside category) is likely to be in the $359-399 territory, though $459 wouldn't surprise me. I doubt we'll see $299 on this, but of course that's not unprecidented.

As of today RCI has dropped the rate for 55+ on this sailing to $449 for inside cabins. Although I won't qualify for that rate until 2018 (:p) in your opinion should I bite at the $499 or wait and see? If it drops to $399 we would apply the difference to spending a few more days in Spain. Thanks for your input!

Juiceman, I'm revising my previous estimate. I've looked at the sailing, and not only is it coded green (wide open, behind target), but they're allowing new groups and offering major group incentives still. Both those factors lead me to give it a high probability of going on Happy Hour at some point. Possibly for multiple weeks. I won't go so far as to predict a $299 fare, but do believe it'll go significantly below the current $499 for you, and in a way which won't allow for a fare reduction if you purchase now.

I also think there may be an outright fare reduction as well.

What does your crystal ball say about Equinox Transatlantic 4/19/10? I know a few weeks ago you commented it was selling well and "on target". Today I noticed several sky suites now available that haven't been there previously, so I was just wondering if things have changed at all in your opinion.

Still showing on target. It's possible that at final either some people who had Sky Suites released them, or that they made some Deluxe Guarantee assignments and opened up the rest of the specific cabins for booking.

They haven't added any restricted fares, such as military, resident or senior rates yet, and those are often the indicator on an "on target" sailing whether or not it will go on Happy Hour. So far, nothing's ticking that way. Most categories still have availability, though, but at fairly strong relative pricing for this type of sailing.

Give it a 2-3 more weeks and ask me again, Beav. I'm always happy to look, and by then we should have some better indications what they're going to do to sell the rest of the inventory.

Thanks, much appreciated! It's no surprise Equinox is selling at higher rates than other X/RCL Spring TATL sailings since she's the new kid on the block. Constellation's TATL itinerary just doesn't appeal to us (too many repeat ports), otherwise we'd be jumping on her current bargain basement rates!