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-   -   When do prices hit rock-bottom? (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/cruises/1035731-when-do-prices-hit-rock-bottom.html)

Fontaine Jan 19, 2010 6:14 pm

Does the RCCL cruise out of San Juan not work for you? In my experience the San Juan transatlantics are cheaper and you have the benefit of usually warmer weather for most of the crossing.

One other consideration - RCCL (including Celebrity) say that they can raise their rates (after you book) by $10 a person per day if the price of oil per barrel is over $65 (I think) - and it has been over that amount for months. No word of if or when they might levy the surcharge. Not sure if all cruise lines reserve that right.

BurBunny Jan 19, 2010 8:05 pm


Originally Posted by Fontaine (Post 13214237)
Not sure if all cruise lines reserve that right.

Pretty much yes, though in varying amounts by line.

Right now, all (except Disney who has reinstated for certain passengers booked more than a year ago) have stated they do not have plans at this point as they don't believe it is economically beneficial for them to do so in this climate, but my personal guess is if fuel goes over $90/bbl, they will reinstate.

tarmac Jan 20, 2010 3:12 pm

In my experience the San Juan transatlantics are cheaper and you have the benefit of usually warmer weather for most of the crossing.


Thanks for the suggestion. Since we have family in the Miami area, it's better for us to leave from Miami or Fort Lauderdale. Since quite a few ships leave around the same time, our strategy is to wait until prices (hopefully) are very good, and select one of the several cruises then. But I have noticed that the non-US ports are significantly cheaper, at least right now.

Again, thanks for the suggestion.

The Juiceman Jan 31, 2010 11:17 pm

We are considering a 13-day TATL from San Juan through the Canary Islands to Barcelona on Adventure of the Seas leaving 5/2. It is currently $499 pp for a "Q" class (inside guaranteed). This also includes up to $72 obc depending on who you book through. Since we put down a future cruise deposit last time we would end up with $272 obc. The $72 credit is with the TA offering all but $8 of their commission as obc. With the Happy Hour specials the TA's only receive around $10 commission so that would yield no obc. All things considered we may go ahead and jump on this so we can make our air rez and start planning. With the AA sale from the UK currently being discussed in the MR forum it almost makes sense to book LHR-US r/t for around $500 rather than BCN-US o/w for as much or more and then book a o/w from BCN to LHR. Then we could book a o/w LHR-US later in the fall when prices drop and actually get another trip out of this for around the same price as just the o/w from BCN.
Any opinions on how low this particular sailing may go? I'm guessing $299...
(sorry for all the abbreviations but I figured FT'ers would understand :p).

BurBunny Jan 31, 2010 11:34 pm


Originally Posted by The Juiceman (Post 13298521)
Any opinions on how low this particular sailing may go? I'm guessing $299...
(sorry for all the abbreviations but I figured FT'ers would understand :p).

Considering the NCFs (included in the quoted fare) for a 13-night sailing are $219, and RCCL is holding the line a bit on prices, I expect that a Happy Hour (in a higher inside category) is likely to be in the $359-399 territory, though $459 wouldn't surprise me. I doubt we'll see $299 on this, but of course that's not unprecidented.

The Juiceman Feb 2, 2010 8:33 pm


Originally Posted by BurBunny (Post 13298603)
Considering the NCFs (included in the quoted fare) for a 13-night sailing are $219, and RCCL is holding the line a bit on prices, I expect that a Happy Hour (in a higher inside category) is likely to be in the $359-399 territory, though $459 wouldn't surprise me. I doubt we'll see $299 on this, but of course that's not unprecidented.

As of today RCI has dropped the rate for 55+ on this sailing to $449 for inside cabins. Although I won't qualify for that rate until 2018 (:p) in your opinion should I bite at the $499 or wait and see? If it drops to $399 we would apply the difference to spending a few more days in Spain. Thanks for your input!

BurBunny Feb 2, 2010 10:10 pm

Juiceman, I'm revising my previous estimate. I've looked at the sailing, and not only is it coded green (wide open, behind target), but they're allowing new groups and offering major group incentives still. Both those factors lead me to give it a high probability of going on Happy Hour at some point. Possibly for multiple weeks. I won't go so far as to predict a $299 fare, but do believe it'll go significantly below the current $499 for you, and in a way which won't allow for a fare reduction if you purchase now.

I also think there may be an outright fare reduction as well.

BEAV Feb 2, 2010 11:51 pm


Originally Posted by BurBunny (Post 13313707)
Juiceman, I'm revising my previous estimate. I've looked at the sailing, and not only is it coded green (wide open, behind target), but they're allowing new groups and offering major group incentives still. Both those factors lead me to give it a high probability of going on Happy Hour at some point. Possibly for multiple weeks. I won't go so far as to predict a $299 fare, but do believe it'll go significantly below the current $499 for you, and in a way which won't allow for a fare reduction if you purchase now.

I also think there may be an outright fare reduction as well.

What does your crystal ball say about Equinox Transatlantic 4/19/10? I know a few weeks ago you commented it was selling well and "on target". Today I noticed several sky suites now available that haven't been there previously, so I was just wondering if things have changed at all in your opinion.

BurBunny Feb 3, 2010 12:07 am


Originally Posted by BEAV (Post 13314187)
What does your crystal ball say about Equinox Transatlantic 4/19/10? I know a few weeks ago you commented it was selling well and "on target". Today I noticed several sky suites now available that haven't been there previously, so I was just wondering if things have changed at all in your opinion.

Still showing on target. It's possible that at final either some people who had Sky Suites released them, or that they made some Deluxe Guarantee assignments and opened up the rest of the specific cabins for booking.

They haven't added any restricted fares, such as military, resident or senior rates yet, and those are often the indicator on an "on target" sailing whether or not it will go on Happy Hour. So far, nothing's ticking that way. Most categories still have availability, though, but at fairly strong relative pricing for this type of sailing.

Give it a 2-3 more weeks and ask me again, Beav. I'm always happy to look, and by then we should have some better indications what they're going to do to sell the rest of the inventory.

BEAV Feb 3, 2010 12:27 am


Originally Posted by BurBunny (Post 13314237)
Still showing on target. It's possible that at final either some people who had Sky Suites released them, or that they made some Deluxe Guarantee assignments and opened up the rest of the specific cabins for booking.

They haven't added any restricted fares, such as military, resident or senior rates yet, and those are often the indicator on an "on target" sailing whether or not it will go on Happy Hour. So far, nothing's ticking that way. Most categories still have availability, though, but at fairly strong relative pricing for this type of sailing.

Give it a 2-3 more weeks and ask me again, Beav. I'm always happy to look, and by then we should have some better indications what they're going to do to sell the rest of the inventory.

Thanks, much appreciated! It's no surprise Equinox is selling at higher rates than other X/RCL Spring TATL sailings since she's the new kid on the block. Constellation's TATL itinerary just doesn't appeal to us (too many repeat ports), otherwise we'd be jumping on her current bargain basement rates!

The Juiceman Feb 3, 2010 6:17 am


Originally Posted by BEAV (Post 13314318)
Thanks, much appreciated!

Ditto on that.

phunsuk Feb 3, 2010 11:41 am

Recently Las Vegas hotel rates hit rock bottom.

BEAV Feb 4, 2010 3:51 pm


Originally Posted by BurBunny (Post 13314237)
Still showing on target. It's possible that at final either some people who had Sky Suites released them, or that they made some Deluxe Guarantee assignments and opened up the rest of the specific cabins for booking.

They haven't added any restricted fares, such as military, resident or senior rates yet, and those are often the indicator on an "on target" sailing whether or not it will go on Happy Hour. So far, nothing's ticking that way. Most categories still have availability, though, but at fairly strong relative pricing for this type of sailing.

Give it a 2-3 more weeks and ask me again, Beav. I'm always happy to look, and by then we should have some better indications what they're going to do to sell the rest of the inventory.

I see that today Celebrity added Y-oceanview and X-balcony guarantee categories on this sailing. Decisions....decisions!

The Juiceman Feb 7, 2010 12:26 pm


Originally Posted by BurBunny (Post 13313707)
Juiceman, I'm revising my previous estimate. I've looked at the sailing, and not only is it coded green (wide open, behind target), but they're allowing new groups and offering major group incentives still. Both those factors lead me to give it a high probability of going on Happy Hour at some point. Possibly for multiple weeks. I won't go so far as to predict a $299 fare, but do believe it'll go significantly below the current $499 for you, and in a way which won't allow for a fare reduction if you purchase now.

I also think there may be an outright fare reduction as well.

We are also considering the 14-night Independence of the Seas, 4/11-4/25. These dates may end up fitting our calendar better (plus on a 14 night we'll get an extra $100 obc from our future cruise deposit). This cruise is currently priced starting at $599. Do you see this possibly going down any further? Thank you very much!

BurBunny Feb 7, 2010 2:46 pm


Originally Posted by The Juiceman (Post 13343929)
We are also considering the 14-night Independence of the Seas, 4/11-4/25. These dates may end up fitting our calendar better (plus on a 14 night we'll get an extra $100 obc from our future cruise deposit). This cruise is currently priced starting at $599. Do you see this possibly going down any further? Thank you very much!

I'd rate this as highly likely for Happy Hour and possible other standard redutions. It, too, is categorized "green", with new groups available.


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