My reading of the progression was that the upper-level low that would interact with the arctic air would be tracking West to East. Since the earlier NWS discussion talked about snow beginning in NW Houston on late Friday morning, that would make sense. The low would track over us by Friday afternoon/evening, as most of the snow tapered off in the Hill Country.

I'm going to GUA not GUM; though I'd love a free routing to the islands... :)

I'm waiting for the 4PM discussion release from our NWS office. They issued a statement about an hour ago saying 2 inches are forecast along and north of US 57, which includes the SAT and AUS metro areas. I am strongly considering urging my wife to cancel our SAT plans this weekend if only to avoid what I am sure is a large group of morons on IH-35 who have no idea how to drive in winter weather.

4PM Discussion is out:

Looks like the models shifted slightly since this morning so the next two days will be telling. But in any event, it's going to be cold and there is going to be some snow, so I hope IAH has the deicing truck gassed up and ready to roll.

Here's a link to a GFS/NAM model run showing the snow being pulled in by the low, tracking from Midland/Odessa, through the Hill Country, and then along the North side of Houston.

I booked a flight to DFW for Friday night to visit a friend; if it snows hopefully I won't run into any problems...I can only see her Friday evening and Saturday. I guess if it gets bad I can apply the $$ to another flight, cancel my rental car, and get her to check into my room so I can at least get the points, unless Hilton allows me to cancel w/in 24 hours.

If I have a flight cancellation, I've had good luck with Hilton properties allowing me to cancel or change a reservation, even if I'm past the CX time frame.

Always easy.

www.weatheronline.com has measurable snow in the forecast for IAH.

I was stuck at IAH for last year's snowstorm and am glad I'll be flying through IAH on Saturday after whatever fun unfolds on Friday.

When a 1 in 30 year storm hits in two consecutive years, I suppose it's time to change the "30 year storm" mantra and/or play the lottery.

Well, they seem to come closely spaced, then disappear. 87 and 89 were pretty cold and snowy by Houston standards. I think our thermometer in Spring read 7 degrees at one point one of those winters. I also remember snow remaining on the yard for several days. Then there was nothing until recently. We had two or three days in the 90s with flurries, but nothing stuck.

ETA - We also got walloped by an ice storm at some point in the 90s. I don't recall exactly when, but do recall pine tree branches turning into missiles.

Can't wait! I am staying far away from the airport on and after the snow day. And if we get any ice, this time I'm not going out for a drive 'just to check it out'. Almost crashed my friggin car.

I just hope it stays away or hits later in the evening.. I was thinking about heading to the airport Friday.. :(

and hey if you don't crash it yourself, another idiot driving their lawn mower may! Or perhaps those pulling a tire behind their ATV. :rolleyes:

January of 1997. The city almost completely shut down.

Yep. I was at my parents' house, Dad was out of town, and Mom and I had to do with no power for a few days and use the fireplace for heat and to cook.

Another period of colder than normal winters happened around 1982-1984. One of those winters it was cold enough around Christmas that the lake in our neighborhood in the area northeast of Houston froze completely over. That's the only time in my life that has happened.

I made a snowman in 1984. It was about two feet tall, but still, it was a snowman in Houston.

I fly out first thing Sat morning 6:30am. I am more concerned about the drive to the airport Sat morning (I'm way in the south end--50 mins on a good day.). I might go out Friday night...but have a work dinner to go to that should tie my until 8-9pm...so not sure it'll be worth it by that late. :eek: I guess I'll deal with it when and if I have to....I'm still not convinced it'll snow.

Darned inconvenient as I booked a trip MAF-IAH-LAS on Friday returning Monday which would bump me to Gold for next year if I can make the trip. I booked some refundable tickets on Southwest as a backup, and that flight has the pleasure of being direct and thus avoiding most of the weather. I just hope that if there are weather problems CO is kind about letting us refund tickets.

Either way I will be in Vegas though, so like is good. :cool:

Operations Update
 

CO posted this update on their website about the winter storm:
Let the fun begin! :)

This should be fun! Channa and me just need our IAH-SFO upgrades before some kind of snow effect hits UGH!

Does the announcement mean we get weather waivers to change our flights without penalty? I'm scheduled through IAH with a 730p arrival tomorrow and a short 1hr layover. I stupidly paid a B fare to snag upgrades on a flight to SEA that I originally thought looked bleak (until a few people canceled).

I'd rather re-route through EWR and snag the last couple F seats on my selected flights since I already have the B fare.

Maybe it won't be that bad after all...

from the National Weather Service...

Doesn't sound winter stormish to me

For Houston, it very well could be, although I seriously doubt that there is going to be any sort of snow accumulation.

Note that the day's "high" on Friday is likely going to be at 12:01 a.m.

Apparently late next week may be fun, as well, according to some of the models. Per the weather geeks, a moderate/strong El Niño has resulted in the subtropical jet staying pretty low over Texas/Southeast. Combo of that and a big surge of even colder arctic air late next week could see Houston enter the sort of deep-freeze that it hasn't experienced since the 80s. Chance it could shift further East, in which case New Orleans to Atlanta could be in for some weather more suited to Omaha this time of year.

Great....

On one hand, there are no hurricanes this year, so you don't have to sweat in un-air-conditioned comfort for days on end.

On the other, the winter season is a protracted one, so you do have to freeze your butt off for days on end.

I take the latter any time over the former.

Well, you take the good with the bad. From what I've read, the position of the subtropical jet during the summer, as well as increased shear in the Atlantic basin (owing to El Niño), are what kept the U.S. largely hurricane-free this year. ^

That is true; less hurricanes means less morons all the way up here thinking they need to clean out the grocery stores and prepare to evacuate.

I'm curious about the weather waiver =) I'd utilize this to my advantage this weekend on 2 back to back MRs

Heh. Well, AUS can get some nasty Hurricane weather at times. My father distinctly recalls when Carla tore through Austin with 100+ mph gusts. There's not a whole lot to break the wind between Port Lavaca and y'all. Thankfully, though, Cedar trees don't do much damage when they blow over. :D

Can we get an IAH Gloom and Doom Thread ?

For the locals, it isn't doom and gloom. It's just that way for people connecting via IAH that come from parts of the country that generally have seasons other than "Hot" and "Warm and/or Slightly Cool." Displaced northerners that live amongst us will no doubt roll their eyes on Friday as the natives turn into five-year-olds in the presence of strange white stuff falling from the sky. :D

Good thing, too, since Austin already has more morons than it can handle. :D

Just started one =)

I don't think you have anything to worry about. The ground temp is well above 32F, and 260 miles NW, we're CAVU, and 40F (low 35F) with a chance of snow tonight. The "snow" in Houston (IAH, but was it snowing at HOU?was almost unique caused by high humidity and the passage of a Low, with the subfreezing temperature above the surface generating the snowfall instead of the usual rain. What you don't want, freezing temp on the ground and warm and wet above, from whence cometh the dreaded and dreadful freezing rain, is not likely.

Same here.

Awesome!

I just want to know if things have improved since last years mess...

I'm guessing they'll have gasoline for the single deicing truck this year :)

Perhaps will an oil change and everything!

Really though, the temperatures aren't going to be the type that cause heavy ice build up quickly, so hopefully it won't be too much more than the Little Deicer That Could™ can keep up with.