Chance of Upgrade?
 

I'm looking for a basic rule of thumb to follow, as I'm only a mere Silver and have recently become aware of FlyerTalk:

My wife (also Silver) and I will be flying to West Palm on a 757 in December. Coach is almost totally booked, FC is totally open. Do I use miles to upgrade (As of Jan 1, it becomes 15,000, so I'm thinking I want to "take advantage" of this opportunity one last time, considering the mileage deduct upgrade is available), or do I hope for the automatic upgrade.

I know from previous experience, if coach is full on a 737-500, there is no chance of an upgrade for a Silver, and if you're on a 737-3,7, 8 or 9, a very small possibility of an upgrade, but I'm not sure about on a 757, with its 24 FC seats.

Also keep in mind that many people on the EWR-PBI route have homes in both areas, and are constantly flying back and forth (hence, a tono of Elite members). Any thoughts? Thanks.

Honestly, if you have an abundance of miles, and the mileage upgrade(s) are available, I would do it.

Having flown the route dozens of times in the winter months, a confirmed F seat is wonderful. When you take into account what will be a full flight with many young children, lots of carry-on baggage, and what could be a very unpleasant amount of time spent on the ground (potential de-icing and regularly long queues at EWR) in December, I would not tempt fate.

But, that is just my opinion and it largely depends upon what type of value you place on your miles.

I have not run a scientific sample, but I have periodically checked EWR-PBI flights over the past week or two and have found not many (if any) mileage upgradeable seats, so if you have two, consider it fortunate.

[This message has been edited by dsimon (edited Nov 20, 2003).]

There is nobody who likes to be upfront more than me . . . however, when I was Silver I almost always got upgraded to PBI and FLL. As Gold 100%. For a 2hr 20min flight I'll always take the chance and save the miles for long trips to Europe. Just my thoughts.

I think it would also depend on the day/time of your flight--But given that you're on a 757 I think both of your chances are pretty good.