Average Fares US-China
 

I am sure this has been asked often but I can't seem to come up with the right search terms.

I am looking at RDU-DTW-PVG-HKG-DTW-RDU on DL/CX in early June for 12 days. The fare is currently pricing at $1600 even. The last time I went to China (June 2007) we flew SEA-NRT-BKK-HKT-KUL-PEK-NRT-SEA on NW/MH and it was $1800ish so $1600 seemed reasonable.

Am I going to see much change in the price between now and June or should I just book now. I guess the worst case booking now is losing $250 on the change fee and getting a credit if it does drop.

Any thoughts?

I think it depends in part on the time of year, whether you're flying midweek or peak travel days and how far in advance you book.

We're traveling SEA-SFO-PEK//HKG-SFO-SEA on United in late March returning in early April (midweek travel, 10 day trip). Booked Aug '09 on an upgradeable fare for $950.

In early June, United is showing some midweek fares as low as $1,160 and Expedia is showing some fares on Delta around the $1,300 range - BUT all this can vary greatly if you leave on a Weds versus leaving on a Sat...

For anything over $1200, I would try to use miles; there aren't many good 2+ cpm redemption opportunities left domestically.

I had thought about miles but Delta wants 120K (in Y) - so not even 2+ cpm. I may just bite the bullet and book now and hope for a re-fare sometime in the next couple of months. Unfortunately with our vacation schedules we really can only leave and return on a weekend so we may be forced to pay more for that.

Here's some food for thought: many FTers have gotten Chase BA cards and will be unable to use their miles efficiently, so methinks they will have an artificially low value on the Coupon Connection soon (maybe 1.2 cpm). You shouldn't limit your options to DL (I agree that DL miles are increasingly hard to use; thinking of signing up for an Amex in order to burn the rest of my stash at 1 cpm).