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Originally Posted by Global_Hi_Flyer
(Post 20322723)
I posted this in the other thread, so I'll paraphrase:
1) Contractors will feel it first, depending on the contract. Not sure whether MCI and SFO are contracted with TSA or the airports - if with TSA, then hit first.... if with the airports, then likely no effect. 2) The administration controls the personnel (absent direct laws mandating specific staffing). They can (and will) staff in a way that increases delays materially to make the other party look bad. It will backfire if there is documented evidence that they are deliberately reducing staffing to increase delays to make other party look bad. If, on the other hand, make the case that this is just in-kind fallout from the sequestration, it will in fact make the other party look bad. There's a fine line, and make no mistake that they will make it just bad enough to make folks squeal but not so bad that they get blamed. 3) Expect it to hit pre-check first as the few folks that use that are considered "privileged" and are expected to wield the most influence on the hill. The lines are seen by the public as overstaffed relative to the numbers processed (that's the failing of the agency to approve enough folks, but that's also a different argument). The net effect will be to make the regular lines longer and delay folks. 4) From the Global Entry perspective, I'd still expect GE to function normally, though they may shut the expedited Customs function. Meaning you'll still save some time unless you get the X, but not as much as normal. I'd also expect longer Customs lines as I'd expect them to understaff the regular exits. As a guy who is in the national security/first response business, the timing of the sequestration was not lost on me. It's a quiet disaster period and is generally a time when federal agencies prepare for the coming year by cutting costs anyway. We're past hurricane season, we're about 6-8 weeks from the big tornado/thunderstorm season, and, snowstorms are mostly a state & local problem. The only things that could throw a monkey wrench into the political machine would be a major west coast earthquake or a west coast volcano that decides to blow its top. Both could happen in Alaska, but there aren't that many people up there to take care of. |
Originally Posted by HawaiiTrvlr
(Post 20322479)
If DHS is like the DOD, the first furlough will be sometime in late April. I do think that it depends on how each department implements their cutbacks. Good thing I am not flying anytime soon.
So 3/1/13 will be like any other day.... it'll be 3/8/13 or April when the staffing would be affected. |
We may be assuming they would follow procedure. All they have to do is not schedule enough people and when things back up scream "Sequester!"
Honesty and openness are not two of their redeeming qualities. |
Originally Posted by MonkeyBrown
(Post 20319559)
How bad is it going to be this weekend? The administration is threatening to take it out on us fliers. Janet suggested waits as long as 4 hours!!
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Answer this question:
Is it within the administration's mode of operation to create havoc so they can blame it on the opposition? If yes, then there will be problems. If no, they are blowing smoke. If the sequester continues, I will be greatly surprised and pleased if the administration with the cooperation of the media do not maximize the perception of the problems just for political effects. It is what politicians of both parties usually do. |
Originally Posted by Boggie Dog
(Post 20323431)
Government manpower cuts won't hit until April. That's when things will get interesting.
Originally Posted by FliesWay2Much
(Post 20325448)
On the flip side, this is a golden opportunity for them to make a big pitch to get more sheeple to sign up for GE & Pre-Check. Sequestration could turn out to be a big money-maker for DHS.
As a guy who is in the national security/first response business, the timing of the sequestration was not lost on me. It's a quiet disaster period and is generally a time when federal agencies prepare for the coming year by cutting costs anyway. We're past hurricane season, we're about 6-8 weeks from the big tornado/thunderstorm season, and, snowstorms are mostly a state & local problem. The only things that could throw a monkey wrench into the political machine would be a major west coast earthquake or a west coast volcano that decides to blow its top. Both could happen in Alaska, but there aren't that many people up there to take care of.
Originally Posted by InkUnderNails
(Post 20325999)
Answer this question:
Is it within the administration's mode of operation to create havoc so they can blame it on the opposition? If yes, then there will be problems. If no, they are blowing smoke. If the sequester continues, I will be greatly surprised and pleased if the administration with the cooperation of the media do not maximize the perception of the problems just for political effects. It is what politicians of both parties usually do. |
Originally Posted by Bowgie
(Post 20325074)
Frankly, we could just pay all of the TSA people to stay home, and that would be a win all the way around -- they don't have to work for a paycheck and we don't have to get hassled.
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What is the $10 fee per roundtrip ticket for? I thought the airline passengers themselves paid for TSA.
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Originally Posted by Global_Hi_Flyer
(Post 20326114)
No question that the timing was carefully set for political reasons.
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Originally Posted by LivelyFL
(Post 20326585)
What is the $10 fee per roundtrip ticket for? I thought the airline passengers themselves paid for TSA.
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Originally Posted by LivelyFL
(Post 20326585)
What is the $10 fee per roundtrip ticket for? I thought the airline passengers themselves paid for TSA.
Originally Posted by TheRoadie
(Post 20329000)
Indeed. Whatever percentage of the screening operation that's covered by the fees should not be touched by the sequester. Unless the fees also drop in lockstep with the budget? Nah.
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Originally Posted by Global_Hi_Flyer
(Post 20322723)
1) Contractors will feel it first, depending on the contract. Not sure whether MCI and SFO are contracted with TSA or the airports - if with TSA, then hit first.... if with the airports, then likely no effect.
One federal (DoD type) contractor around here was claiming that he was unlikely to be impacted because the contract had already been paid for the year (presumably fiscal year), so there was no reason to quit working, take furloughs, etc. If the "cuts" last, there might be issues with future contracts, but he seemed to think the current one was pretty safe. |
Originally Posted by studentff
(Post 20332554)
Any idea what the durations of the screening contracts are?
One federal (DoD type) contractor around here was claiming that he was unlikely to be impacted because the contract had already been paid for the year (presumably fiscal year), so there was no reason to quit working, take furloughs, etc. If the "cuts" last, there might be issues with future contracts, but he seemed to think the current one was pretty safe. |
Originally Posted by studentff
(Post 20332554)
Any idea what the durations of the screening contracts are?
One federal (DoD type) contractor around here was claiming that he was unlikely to be impacted because the contract had already been paid for the year (presumably fiscal year), so there was no reason to quit working, take furloughs, etc. If the "cuts" last, there might be issues with future contracts, but he seemed to think the current one was pretty safe. Virtually ALL Federal contracts provide for cancellation at the "convenience of the Government". So, regardless of term, they can be canceled upon whatever notice is required in the contract clauses. I should add that contract screeners that are contracted by the airport/local authorities (rather than by TSA) will not be affected by the sequestration unless the local government obtains the funding from the Feds. |
Originally Posted by Global_Hi_Flyer
(Post 20335534)
It depends.
Virtually ALL Federal contracts provide for cancellation at the "convenience of the Government". So, regardless of term, they can be canceled upon whatever notice is required in the contract clauses. I should add that contract screeners that are contracted by the airport/local authorities (rather than by TSA) will not be affected by the sequestration unless the local government obtains the funding from the Feds. castro |
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