bklgafly

New to this points game so trying to see when I can beat those 2.1 cents per point TPG has UR valued at.

I don't buy the whole 10 cent a point stories he tells because he had to book a last minute first class NYC-HK.... that is something that 2% of people EVER come across needing to do.

I am mainly looking at booking far ahead for vacation in mainly economy but will also look at business just to see the value difference

So far the great majority of redemption I am looking at by transfer partners is coming in at a rather low value... 1.3-1.6 cents. If I find 1.9 or 2 it is high. I will very rarely come across 3 cents. I do take into account fees though.

So if a regular ticket is 1k and reward is 30k round with $200 fees/surcharges/tax/so on... Then I will calculate 700/30k to see value and not 1000/30k.

The only consistent high value are sweet spots as far as I can tell.

Does anyone have different experience?

mia

You can refine this by accounting for the miles you would have earned on a paid ticket. If you would have earned 3,000 miles you really redeemed 33,000 rather than 30,000.

Troopers

TPG's valuation is based on how he redeems UR which is different then how you redeem UR. Your valuation should be based on how you redeem UR. What is the point of beating TPG's 2.1 cpp?


You underestimate the number of FTers that do book last minute premium seats. Also, it's not difficult to achieve 5+cpp booking premium seats in advance.


You'll have a hard time achieving more than 2.1cpp with economy seats.

Diplomatico

The outsized value in transferring points to partners lies in premium class travel, not in economy class travel. Pretty easy to get upwards of 3 cpp on F/J tickets on a regular basis.

Saying that you want to "beat" someone else's valuation estimate - and then applying your own rules (economy class travel only) - is a fruitless endeavor.

bklgafly

Great points here. Thank you.

Haven't thought about taking into account lost miles as well... wow.

I did search (in advance) tickets in business vs economy and sometimes the value was higher in economy believe it or not. But haven't ran that scenario much though so I am confident you guys are correct and the majority will have business coming on top in cpp.

But I agree that I am doing a little apples to oranges her comparing to TPG

Also, I spend a fortune in home improvements stores (I am in real estate) and found a card that gives unlimited 3% cash back on home improvement so I am using that number more as a figure to see the value of accruing points instead of 3% cash back.

And I usually do beat it.

So in general, you think the real value in point game lays in premium seats?

mia

Yes, in general, but there are exceptions. Last minute tickets in any class of service can be expensive. You won't need to do this often, but when you do (think accident, serious illness or death of someone important to you) miles can be valuable.

Also, if you travel to or from a destination that is served only by one commuter airline the economy fares can be as high as premium cabin service on competitive routes.

Troopers

I don't care for cash back cards because the cash back is not meaningful, or in other words, the cash back doesn't materially affect my life.

Yes, particularly international flights. However, I highly value (not monetary value but personal value) trips that would not have been obtainable without flights/hotels paid with lower cpp.

drminn

I routinely get better than 2.1 cpp on United in coach to South America and closer to 3 cpm on Delta (!), also to South America. There are some sweet spots, good for you if they happen to coincide with your plans.

Happy

Agree on both.

We consider the miles / points are ways to get nicer things in life that even if we can afford it by cash, it is not financially prudent to do so. I mean, it does not make sense to fly CX F class to Asia twice or three times a year paying by money, not to mention it would be a fairly large sum by most standards for the readers on FT (even for deeply discounted Corporate rates, said fares would be above $5K one-way easily). Miles allow us to do so. Those would be the nicer things in life that we value a lot.

Then on the other hand, we do NOT "value" our miles based on the retail value of a ticket in premium cabin because we would not use cold hard cash for such. However for hotel stays we do value it based on retail value as that would be we would incur should we dont have the points to pay for such. For that matter, we usually could get a cpp much higher than putting same spend on a cash back card. Then again, it is not always on upper market properties. It all depends on how much the hotel room sells for and the points needed. We had lowly Hampton Inn and Hilton Garden Inn only needed 10K HH pts a night yet the hotel room was $75 to $100 a night, prepaid, and 10 to 15% higher if on flexible rates. So in that case, our HH pts achieved a 0.0075 to 0.01 per point value - that is exceptionally high when HH pts are now pecked at 0.0045 to 0.0055 range by the program which basically has turned into a revenue-based system.

Similar thing could be said for recent stays in the Glacier NP and Canadian Rockies area. The Springhill Suites at Kalispell had $190 prepaid rate but only 10K Marriott points. The Holiday Inn Express Butt was over $200 but only 20K IHG pts, while the Holiday Inn in Hinton near Jasper NP, and Candlewood at Idaho Falls - all were over $200 a night but only 25K and 15K IHG pts.

As someone said, you DONT use others valuation but only value the various "currencies" based on Your OWN Needs and Usage.

As you can see the above examples, you can achieve outsize values in both high end and low end travels - it all depends on HOW you use it. Using a fixed formula to value your miles and points is a Fool's game, especially based on those fictitious "value" from the bloggers.

bklgafly

Thanks for the great info!!!!

I agree.

Now I am trying to figure out which other cards to open soon. But that I will start in another thread!