qq70

I have redeemed 4 J Class award ticket (HKG to SYD) of early Aug 2020 via Asia Miles (AM) but the return award ticket (J Class, SYD to HKG) is on waiting list. Since I wanna to know whether I can redeem the return ticket successfully. Then I checked the availability of award ticket of Sep 2019, I was very surprised that NO availability of award ticket was found (J Class, SYD to HKG) in Sep 2019 and last minute award ticket is also "0".

For example, 13 Sep 2019, CX 110 (SYD to HKG), I checked the flight availability and seat map via Expertflyer in this morning and noted that "J9 C9 D9 I9 U P0 W9 R9 E9 T2 Y9 B9 H9 K9 M9 C9 V9 6P S9 N9 Q9 O9 X9" and the seat map showed that 20 seats are not yet occupied. But, the availability of award ticket in AM is still "0".

I wonder that WHY CX not release 20 seats to AM for redemption and let the seats empty ? Any brothers/sisters can tel me it is a normal practice of CX ? If CX would not release the seats to AM redemption afterwards, then I would change my plan. Thanks.

Mwenenzi

Seat map (seat allocation) is not an indication of seat sales.
People who fly for work will often not book until a few days before. SYD HKG is just a commuter run for some people
CX will know from history what is typical pattern for seat sales.
Getting multiple J award seats is hard with any airline/ffp
Have you looked at BNE-HKG, MEL-HKG and ADL-HKG

Your 13 Sep CX110 flight fare buckets indicate a very low load. But with the current political unrest many people are not going to Hong Kong.

Note:-
CX services more Au airports with international flights than QF. But QF has a lot more international flights/seats in total

qq70

Thanks for your reply.
How can I know the actual seat sales ? Does Expertflyer (EF) can showed how many seats sold ?
If the chance of redemption the ticket (SYD-HKG) seemed low, then I would change my plan to consider QF (BNE-HKG).
I checked the availability of award ticket (J class) of QF via EF, NO availability was found from Apr to Aug 2020. Do you know the release trend of award ticket in QF ?

Many thanks.

Mwenenzi

The only people who know count of seat sales work for CX. Such information is closely guarded.

QF start to release awards from 353 days out. But can be any time from then to flight departure.
No idea how many days out CX/AM start to release awards
Between now and Aug/Sept 2020 you have plenty of time to find awards. Or buy cash tckets

CX fly BNE-HKG, MEL-HKG & ADL-HKG

qq70

CX/AM start to release awards from 360 days for "Choice" award , 353 days for "standard" award. Even though I checked from 353 days at 0001 hrs sharply, there is only "Choice" award but no "standard" award for SYD-HKG.

Same as CX/AM, I checked QF from 353 days, the award ticket is also "0". Some tickets are found in Nov, Jan, Feb & Mar 2020 for SYD-HKG

Anyway, thanks for your reply. I will keep on looking for the award ticket in CX/QF. Since I would redeem 6 J class ticket for my family, I understand that it is very hard job. If J class is not available, then I consider PE or econ.

percysmith

Choice and Tailored looking good for first week of Sep 2020. Still struggling to find 6 J seats tho.

qq70

The miles for redemption of "choice/tailor" is at least 1.5x of "standard", i need to redeem 6 J class in mid Aug 2020!

percysmith

I looked - this one does seem weird. We did notice this behaviour iro Japan for the whole summer 13/9/19 is well past it now. I don't think you can use this load to extrapolate Sep 2020

percysmith

You can wish for 6 Standards, but CX will demand a price it thinks is fair.

Nothing we can stop CX from being more aggressive of pricing, except not fly or go to a competitor.

fallinasleep

Have you ever seen CX load as many as 6 J awards that far in advance for SYD-HKG?

When I searched QF a few years back, it was basically only 2 J max per flight.

qq70

If closed to departure date, I searched CX load more than 6 J awards, HKG-SYD per flight in just past Aug and I seen that up to 4 J awards far in advance.

Besides, I searched for QF, BNE-HKG, up to 4 J awards per flight in Jan 2020.