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CHINA SOUTHERN officially left SKYTEAM, strengthen cooperation with AA

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CHINA SOUTHERN officially left SKYTEAM, strengthen cooperation with AA

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Old Nov 15, 2018, 9:53 am
  #16  
 
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Originally Posted by MT_Switch
Here comes the speculative rumors about CX joining *A
Oh, I'm sure they'll be along soon.

If the cross-shareholding agreement between CX and CA was the basis for choosing an alliance, then I wonder why CA didn't join OW back in 2007. Since the CX/CA cross-investment dates to 2006, surely CA could have easily joined OW instead of *A.

Also, let's not forget that ZH is a *A carrier and their hub is at SZX, which is much closer to HKG than CAN. Granted, ZH operates a different business model to CX. The same could be said of CZ of course...
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Old Nov 15, 2018, 12:18 pm
  #17  
 
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Originally Posted by swingaling
Oh, I'm sure they'll be along soon.

If the cross-shareholding agreement between CX and CA was the basis for choosing an alliance, then I wonder why CA didn't join OW back in 2007. Since the CX/CA cross-investment dates to 2006, surely CA could have easily joined OW instead of *A.

Also, let's not forget that ZH is a *A carrier and their hub is at SZX, which is much closer to HKG than CAN. Granted, ZH operates a different business model to CX. The same could be said of CZ of course...
By the time the CX-CA cross-shareholding arrangement was put in place, CA was already destined to join *A. I remember seeing a news report that says CX tried really hard to persuade to stop the process and voted "no" in the CA board meeting, but CA valued its relationship with LH highly and still joined.

On the other hand, ZH is a CA subsidiary, code-shares with KA, and is a limited AM partner, so it does not seem that CX views ZH as a competitor. In fact, looking it this way, CA is pretty strong in the Pearl River Delta: ZH and NX are both subsidiaries, and CX and KA are PhoenixMiles partners and partially owned by CA.
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Old Nov 15, 2018, 1:53 pm
  #18  
 
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If I remember correctly, one of the reasons CA chose to be in *A is that the PRC government CA should join the largest alliance which just happens to be *A

​​​​IMO CX is less likely to veto CZ than MU to join oneworld if CZ does apply for membership especially after the jetstar hk attempt. They might in future but I'm not entirely sure if that would happen in the near future, since Xiamen airlines which CZ holds 55% has stated that they have no intention to leave skyteam at the moment and it would be most logical the 2 in the same alliance. On the other hand I don't think CX will join *A in near future either with every member in *A have veto power unlike oneworld, and I can't see why SQ/TG/BR/OZ not using it.

With the cross-shareholding I think CX continuous cooperation is quite certain. What would be interesting to see is that if other oneworld airlines (especially QF/JL) would switch from partnering with MU to CZ for Chinese market. Don't forget JL has only just submitted JV application with MU in summer. Forming partnership when there is no alliance partner in that country is one thing, but with another member in the same alliance but still choosing someone else is completely different. If CZ is really interested in joining oneworld soon, I doubt JL doesn't know about it when they are setting up the JV with MU.
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Old Nov 15, 2018, 7:21 pm
  #19  
 
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My thought is that CX should stay in OW while HX goes for SA. Because CX is a founder of OW and they need to strength in OW not SA nor ST too!
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Old Nov 15, 2018, 7:34 pm
  #20  
 
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Originally Posted by swingaling
Oh, I'm sure they'll be along soon.If the cross-shareholding agreement between CX and CA was the basis for choosing an alliance, then I wonder why CA didn't join OW back in 2007. Since the CX/CA cross-investment dates to 2006, surely CA could have easily joined OW instead of *A.
It was a CAAC/Chinese Government decision for the flagship carrier to join the largest aviation alliance. The investment in CX was equally a political arrangement.

The decisions were taken independently and not related which is why the current arrangements exist.
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Old Nov 15, 2018, 7:35 pm
  #21  
 
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Originally Posted by ernestnywang
Official SkyTeam press release: https://www.skyteam.com/en/about/pre...hina-Southern/

I wonder if MF will follow.
I don't know if MF will follow either, but CZ has announced itself will leave ST by year end. That's all.
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Old Nov 15, 2018, 8:32 pm
  #22  
 
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I thought MU is falling apart by its own management team. LOL
MU G is easier to reach if you fly a lot of J international flights.
Same based in SHA, I found that without ST tier it is totally fine, CA has a lot of flights as well.
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Old Nov 15, 2018, 8:34 pm
  #23  
 
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I have saw J ticket return trip Mainland China to Europe, 1441 usd.
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Old Nov 15, 2018, 8:39 pm
  #24  
 
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It is possible when MF stay in ST, CZ strength cooperation with single airlines instead of join any alliance.
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Old Nov 15, 2018, 11:23 pm
  #25  
 
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Originally Posted by patrickw
If I remember correctly, one of the reasons CA chose to be in *A is that the PRC government CA should join the largest alliance which just happens to be *A

IMO CX is less likely to veto CZ than MU to join oneworld if CZ does apply for membership especially after the jetstar hk attempt. They might in future but I'm not entirely sure if that would happen in the near future, since Xiamen airlines which CZ holds 55% has stated that they have no intention to leave skyteam at the moment and it would be most logical the 2 in the same alliance. On the other hand I don't think CX will join *A in near future either with every member in *A have veto power unlike oneworld, and I can't see why SQ/TG/BR/OZ not using it.

With the cross-shareholding I think CX continuous cooperation is quite certain. What would be interesting to see is that if other oneworld airlines (especially QF/JL) would switch from partnering with MU to CZ for Chinese market. Don't forget JL has only just submitted JV application with MU in summer. Forming partnership when there is no alliance partner in that country is one thing, but with another member in the same alliance but still choosing someone else is completely different. If CZ is really interested in joining oneworld soon, I doubt JL doesn't know about it when they are setting up the JV with MU.
I thought that it's OW that has the veto thing, whereas *A just requires a 1/2 or 2/3 majority or something like that (as in, even LH and UA don't have veto power)? Do you have more information on this?

QF already collaborates with CZ quite extensively I think. If QF can collaborate with both CZ and MU, I don't see why QF should choose just one. JL, on the other hand, will benefit from SHA's location a lot more than CAN, so I think the logical move is for JL to keep focusing on MU partnership, although JL code-shares with CZ, too.
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Old Nov 16, 2018, 2:14 am
  #26  
 
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This creates an opening for QR to join Skyteam!
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Old Nov 16, 2018, 2:16 am
  #27  
 
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Originally Posted by triplefives
This creates an opening for QR to join Skyteam!
Yeah, right
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Old Nov 16, 2018, 3:37 am
  #28  
 
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Originally Posted by ernestnywang
I thought that it's OW that has the veto thing, whereas *A just requires a 1/2 or 2/3 majority or something like that (as in, even LH and UA don't have veto power)? Do you have more information on this?

QF already collaborates with CZ quite extensively I think. If QF can collaborate with both CZ and MU, I don't see why QF should choose just one. JL, on the other hand, will benefit from SHA's location a lot more than CAN, so I think the logical move is for JL to keep focusing on MU partnership, although JL code-shares with CZ, too.
Honestly I am not entirely sure if the change of *A in 2015, which the voting becoming based on size of the airline, covers new member admission (and there isn't any new members for any alliance for a long while, besides air India being unanimously voted out anyway). But I've read a few comments on other websites continue to stated that for airline to join *A as a member, all members have to unanimously vote in.

QF and CZ is a simple codeshare partner I think, but QF and MU has a joint venture for flights between Australia and China and you can only earn miles for QF ffp with MU and not CZ. Therefore I'd not rate cooperation with MU and CZ at the same level for QF. Same for JL, the joint venture will not just cover Shanghai but the whole China. Currently they already codeshare on all flights between the 2 countries and the JV will allow them to coordinate schedules or depending on terms even profit sharing so it's a lot more beyond codeshare.
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Old Nov 16, 2018, 7:01 am
  #29  
 
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Originally Posted by swingaling
Also, let's not forget that ZH is a *A carrier and their hub is at SZX, which is much closer to HKG than CAN. Granted, ZH operates a different business model to CX. The same could be said of CZ of course...
HKG is actually a lot closer to Shenzhen than CAN. I'm not familiar with the demographics and geography but Shenzhen's economy is bigger and the economic mix is I'm guessing more geared towards high value rather than factories. If that's the case, I suppose one could argue CZ and CX actually serve two separate markets and as a result there could be room in OW for both CX and CZ.

I'll admit I'm not very familiar with CZ's route network, but it appears that other than O&D traffic, it centers around feeding the big 3 SkyTeam players DL, AF/KL,KE.

*A already has the best route network IMO - connections from Europe to SE Asia can be made through IST(TK), SIN(SQ), BKK(TG), TPE(BR), PEK(CA); connections from North America to Asia can be made through YVR(AC), SFO(UA), TYO(NH), TPE(BR), PEK(CA). And let's not forget that LH and LX's reach is pretty broad as well.

If CX did join *A, it'd be terrible news for ex-HKG consumers. Imagine BR/CX codesharing on the HKG-TPE route. They'd have enough flexibility to shrink capacity and drive up prices. Right now, *A is the counterbalance to CX's ridiculously expensive ex-HKG fares.
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Old Nov 16, 2018, 9:55 am
  #30  
 
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Let’s look at this from another angle. Perhaps this is a signal that the end of the airline alliance model that started in the late 1990s is coming soon?

Instead of being in alliances, airlines would instead have partnerships with others only when it makes sense for certain routes and regions they serve. Just like the CX/AC, EK/QF partnerships.

Expect mutual frequent flyer status recognition to be a thing of the past. Instead, mutual recognition for things like lounge access and the earning of miles will depend entirely on the route you are flying provided the airline pair has a partnership for that route.

Airline frequent flyer programs will be more like Alaska’s Mileage Plan program. Note both SQ and CX are partners with the AS program. However don’t expect to be able to redeem AS miles for SQ flights!

Status in the programs will be granted mainly from flying the airline that hosts the program as opposed to flying its partners (except on certain routes).
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