kamchatsky

With SQ.having F and Suites to SYD and MEL, I am still surprised that CX cannot get F to any of the two cities, especially you only need 1 frame per day for one service, comparing to 2 frames for European and North American routes.

If SYD doesn't have a demand for F, SQ would not have put the first new Suites on SYD-SIN route. Slightly OT, the new SQ Suites blows CX F out of the water.

fakecd

i tend to think overbooked J comes from last minute waitlist clearing on cheaper I and D subclasses... lets face it not many would just pay up CX full fare J on last minute..yes loading will go J1C0D0I0 to coerce last minute guys to pay up J if you need to fly... but increasingly harder to get thru corp travel agent or internal policy to justify full J fare at 1.5x when logical alternatives are available... at best traveller will waitlist D or I fares.... ok so game of chicken entail... cx rather sells that bizzo seat so they cave in, clearing the D or I waitlist even.keeping loading at J1C0D0I0 as a spoof with hopes to catch a fool buying J.... smart traveller wont be bullied, so more D and I waitlist clears... or even awards clear at last minutes!

so i really much doubt CX is selling last minute full fare J... and thats why they never bothered to put frames with F seats... but QF and SQ have be successful in maintaining their premium cabin, and traveller have expectation that they have to pay up, this able to sell those F seat.

another view is, most likely hkg-syd on F will be connecting pax from LHR/JFK where incremental revenue on sydney leg is minimal... as opppsed to QF/SQ being able to charge relative premium for O&D traffic

QRC3288

SQ went toe to toe with the ME carriers. CX, so far, has not. CX is "blessed" geographically....whereas SQ is just a bit unlucky, based in Singapore where the level of flights to North America just isn't feasible. SQ relied heavily on Australian connecting traffic to Europe and when EK and QR took direct shot at that market, SQ had to respond.

The question isn't whether or not SYD (or anywhere else) has demand for F. The question is, at what yield? I remember years ago, when the ME carriers were going full throat at SQ for the Australia market. I was close with SQ at the time, and SYD was a money-losing F route for them, but they insisted they had to keep it to stay in the competition. I don't know where the profitability is now, but it's possible F on that route is not a gusher.

From a cash flow perspective, it wouldn't be as painful for SQ versus CX to operate a premium-heavy-for-competition-purposes plane, because SIN-SYD is 2-3 hours shorter each way. So you're burning less gas, and your F-equipped frame is gone from home base less. For CX to deploy to SYD, sure it's shorter than JFK. But it's still a helluva lot longer for CX's F-equipped frame to be away from Hong Kong than SQ's equivalent out of Singapore.

What this means is, realistically CX must be able to capture significantly higher yields to SYD than SQ to make this plausible. Why? 1.) Because CX doesn't yet (right or wrong) see themselves as in direct competition with the ME carriers, in the same was SQ does, and 2.) CX will have more flight hours on the bird HKG-SYD. Practically, what I really think is CX needs to see the O&D demand HKG-SYD / SYD-HKG in F, at an attractive yield, for this to happen. Whereas SQ has more reasons to justify it.

Personally I much prefer F to J, and would fly it down to SYD if CX offered it. But I maybe visit Australia once a year and it's always for pleasure not much business. I just think there are some tough considerations for CX, especially since the rumor is their F-equipped fleet will be shrinking by 5 frames (33->28) in the next few years.

I hope they launch F to Australia - I wish they had more F destinations in general, period - but am not holding my breath. One possible factor favoring F to SYD would be the introduction of 10-abreast Y class. The extra cash from Y class might enable CX to tinker with a different strategy up front. However, I still think long-term for F to hold on the route, CX will need to see O&D demand at an attractive yield, within the context of a limited F fleet and the yields realized on other F routes.

one last bit
SQ has some incredible F class rates HKG-Australia. CX would ultimately be competing with those rates. Yes they should be able to get a premium, but how much premium over a one-stop service on SQ - which has a lovely F class, as you point out, and frankly SQ F on the B77W is also lovely and already ahead of CX IMO - are people willing to pay? It's not going to be easy!

HKGglobaltrotter

I just booked QF First to SYD for my family trip in January. For the same date: CX charges $24,858 HKD (including tax; restricted I fare roundtrip) whilst QF charges $29,932 (including tax, fully flex F fare). The next bookable fare on CX would be the flexible D fare at $40,358. No brainer for me to decide which carrier to fly. I am not sure how QF F comes up with this pricing, looks like a very low yield to me.

QRC3288

what a fantastic price! I didn't realize QF offered F in January, I thought it was just a HK summer thing when they flew the A380 here.

HKGglobaltrotter

They just announced this week they will bring back F into HKG-SYD during peak season on A380! So it is seasonal for now I believe!

vantage03

sxc

AJ747M

I thought QF only release 1 full redemption First award seat? Pretty hard to snag a F award anytime - they don't seem to be releasing close-in either.

I can attest to staff travelers making up a majority of the pax however. Though many years ago, I have been on a few flights were almost everyone in F was staff - including me

sxc

fakecd

i always felt more like part of a "revenue" pax pool in QF J than in CX J where i felt like others got the seat cheaper than me somehow (award, op ups, ID90).. i shouldnt care how others got their seat but it just make you less inclined to spend the same on CX.for this reason...

hkg syd QF F is a new.seasonal.offering... this summer they are selling F seat as J cabin (i am flying on it next few days) but i guess they found that instead of offering it for free to I fare pax paying 23k HKD, they mind as well sell with extra 5k hkd for F fare might entice some to upsell... if not all sold some members will burn points to upgrade anyway.

this is where cx falls... last i.checked F fare were like 2.5x D fares...

SLGO

kamchatsky

Yes there is no way to compare SYD to say LHR/JFK markets where you can get significant premiums, and I don't expect CX to take F planes off those routes for SYD. But how about MXP, ORD, BOS for example? These routes have F as well, and they take 2 frames each way compare to 1 for SYD.

Whilst SQ has the best F and Suites, and have great prices for SYD-SIN-HKG, SYD-HKG direct is only 9.5 hours. SYD-SIN is 8 hours alone, plus 2 hours transit, plus another 4 hours SIN-HKG. That is 4.5 hours difference. So if CX has F to SYD, most people who need to go to HKG would still take CX direct rather than SQ.

Admittedly for a small group of people who prefer to connect rather than fly direct, SQ New Suites is truly an amazing experience.

kaka

QRC3288

I'm not familiar with MXP, although CX has steadily kept F there (while reducing it to other places).

I'm guessing if CX saw the need, they would've already done it? In the years people on here have been craving F to SYD, there has been zero response...but not without other changes. Throughout the call it 5-10 years of wishful thinking for SYD to get relaunched with F, CX has added BOS (and kept it with F), dropped one of the LAX flights, canned DUS, downgraded ZRH, so it's not like they sit static in regards to F (although mostly it's a sad downward slope in terms of F capacity....sigh). And I also know for certain, over at SQ at least not too long ago F class was a money loser to SYD but they thought they had to keep for competitive purposes with the ME airlines. I can't imagine it's a huge winner for them for the P&L, at best maybe they're barely profitable, and my bet is they still see it as key to the competitive balance they're trying to tip against the ME airlines. Rates are still crazy cheap to SYD in F.

Anecdotally, I can't provide precise details but can attest to people in the US and in East Asia paying - over and over - 20k USD+ for round-trip tickets to/from the US. These are two mega markets in the world with tons of wealth, and a lot of the super premium commercial traffic is just channeled through a few gateways like HKG, TYO and ICN. Some folks I'm thinking of have changed destination at the last minute (from JFK or BOS to ORD, in a recent example), in that case the fellow and his son were ~24k USD tickets each on CX. They weren't ORD-bound until 12 hours before the flight, because it had originally been booked to JFK. Of course it's just one anecdote, although they do fly to Asia a lot. But I run across people in the US frequently who just pay the fare (through their staff, secretary, etc.) without even knowing the price. I've seen a 30k USD receipt in the last 12 months on CX.

I've only bought a few ex-Australia tickets before, I don't go there often, but my impression is it's a great deal for F tickets. I wish CX would launch (put more precisely, Mrs. QRC would really wish for CX to launch F to Australia...), but I just don't see what has changed in the last 5-10 years. Worse, CX has even less F seats as a % of total capacity than they did 5-10 years ago. And Australia is just as hyper competitive with F as always, with the ME carriers still battling it out in a race to the bottom for F yields. They obviously hope eventually there's a winner and then they can raise prices..but they've been telling people that for a decade now.