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PEY seems to have been a great success for CX. I recall at the time CX introduced it on the Aus routes, being baffled by the perceived wisdom in Aus that there was no market for PEY on routes into Asia given how consistently full I was seeing the cabins on CX. Yes, some of this is connecting long haul but a lot of traffic is Aus-HKG/Asia. It helps of course that CX did a good job with PEY from the get go relative to other airlines.
Having omitted PEY on its 330 fleet, it will be very interesting to see if QF configures its incoming 787/350-1000s with PEY for Asia use. I think they would be crazy not to. |
Personally, I think the downgauging of J capacity is a mistake - it is very difficult to get last minute long haul J on anything that is not operated by the 77A these days - with Australia being the most challenging - at any price. A couple weeks ago, Zac Purton and James McDonald had to cancel their trips as the only flight that would allow them to ride in both SYD and HKG the same weekend as booked out a week in advance and CX was unwilling to help. I'm not famous, but I've also experienced the same issue and had to fly with another carrier, or worse, HX.
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Originally Posted by QRC3288
(Post 37772232)
CX is definitely betting big on PEY with the 77J. We will have to see the layout of 777X to appreciate where exactly the 77J fits in to the longer term portfolio. My guess is the CX 777X will be very premium heavy, with a lot of PEY and J (and F of course), at expense of Y. Basically replacing the role of the 77A. |
Originally Posted by QRC3288
(Post 37772232)
It's certainly interesting.
One also must consider average frequency and total seats per day to a destination. While CX flies to many European cities once daily, LHR has 5x, SFO, YVR, YYZ and LAX 2-3x, and most Australian ports 2-4x daily. It's the total seats per day that count. CX is definitely betting big on PEY with the 77J. We will have to see the layout of 777X to appreciate where exactly the 77J fits in to the longer term portfolio. My guess is the CX 777X will be very premium heavy, with a lot of PEY and J (and F of course), at expense of Y. Basically replacing the role of the 77A. That UA special plane is an extremely small subset of the fleet. And not coincidence it will fly, in part at least, on UAs longest missions. It's also worth pointing out that Delta coming to HKG on the A359 will be weight restricted towards Asia. Just saying there are more considerations than meets the eyes with these configuration logics. Emirates, another example, is very late to the game, but finally gave in and offered PEY some years back, after for a decade saying they'd never do it. Lastly, the CX 77A was a special plane but not too versatile. It's one thing if this premium heavy config is a subfleet of your long-haul capacity. It's another if it's basically all of your long-haul capacity, as it was eaely days with the original 77A before the A350s arrived. At least in CX, the trend very quickly was to diversify and offer a less premium heavy version of the 77W (77K). And of course, neither of CXs A350s offer F. The A359 in particular gives CX a lot of flexibility. As a side, I think the 35J config (a350-1000) provides CX less flexibility than they desired, in part because the J cabin is too large and the PEY cabin too small all else considered. But the positions of doors 1 and 2 make any mix shift from J to PEY class a harder consideration. Overall I think this configuration rigidity is a key factor (when overlayed with the different cost structures of the planes) behind why the A359 has been the preferred bird for CXs economics, and the A35K has been a little bit disappointing. On another note, if (when??) CX reconfigures the A350s with a new J product, I wouldn't be surprised to see see one of two outcomes. Either A) the 35K get a larger PEY with possibly a mini-cabin forward of door 2, and a reduction in J capacity, so less premium. Or B) go more premium with the 35K and have it be a four class plane, something its competitors have done and a way to diversify the economics, but so far CX hasnt shown a willingness to do because their ultra premium configs are on the 77Ws already. In its current positioning, the CX 35J is just a little bit inferior economics wise. My bet is CX is positioning the fleet now so that in a year or two when the 77X finally arrives, that will be the super premium heavy config. And the rest of the fleet provides more flexibility. |
Originally Posted by CX860
(Post 37772915)
I see where you are coming from but a) there are ports like ZRH and MXP that are not multiple daily but skew premium and b) the J cabins are packed to the rafters right now and I don't think the yield is low given the prices I am seeing, particularly to Oz - Perth was the last one I checked and it was 38k for I class on a sub-8 hours flight. I can count on one hand the number of fights I have seen empty seats in J on since COVID. There is a place for less premium heavy birds particularly if they are inevitably going to go back to DUB, IAD etc. or start VIE or go back to year round FCO, ADL etc They can't just keep jamming LHR/JFK/LAX.
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Originally Posted by QRC3288
(Post 37772232)
It's certainly interesting.
One also must consider average frequency and total seats per day to a destination. While CX flies to many European cities once daily, LHR has 5x, SFO, YVR, YYZ and LAX 2-3x, and most Australian ports 2-4x daily. It's the total seats per day that count. CX is definitely betting big on PEY with the 77J. We will have to see the layout of 777X to appreciate where exactly the 77J fits in to the longer term portfolio. My guess is the CX 777X will be very premium heavy, with a lot of PEY and J (and F of course), at expense of Y. Basically replacing the role of the 77A. That UA special plane is an extremely small subset of the fleet. And not coincidence it will fly, in part at least, on UAs longest missions. It's also worth pointing out that Delta coming to HKG on the A359 will be weight restricted towards Asia. Just saying there are more considerations than meets the eyes with these configuration logics. Emirates, another example, is very late to the game, but finally gave in and offered PEY some years back, after for a decade saying they'd never do it. Lastly, the CX 77A was a special plane but not too versatile. It's one thing if this premium heavy config is a subfleet of your long-haul capacity. It's another if it's basically all of your long-haul capacity, as it was eaely days with the original 77A before the A350s arrived. At least in CX, the trend very quickly was to diversify and offer a less premium heavy version of the 77W (77K). And of course, neither of CXs A350s offer F. The A359 in particular gives CX a lot of flexibility. As a side, I think the 35J config (a350-1000) provides CX less flexibility than they desired, in part because the J cabin is too large and the PEY cabin too small all else considered. But the positions of doors 1 and 2 make any mix shift from J to PEY class a harder consideration. Overall I think this configuration rigidity is a key factor (when overlayed with the different cost structures of the planes) behind why the A359 has been the preferred bird for CXs economics, and the A35K has been a little bit disappointing. On another note, if (when??) CX reconfigures the A350s with a new J product, I wouldn't be surprised to see see one of two outcomes. Either A) the 35K get a larger PEY with possibly a mini-cabin forward of door 2, and a reduction in J capacity, so less premium. Or B) go more premium with the 35K and have it be a four class plane, something its competitors have done and a way to diversify the economics, but so far CX hasnt shown a willingness to do because their ultra premium configs are on the 77Ws already. In its current positioning, the CX 35J is just a little bit inferior economics wise. My bet is CX is positioning the fleet now so that in a year or two when the 77X finally arrives, that will be the super premium heavy config. And the rest of the fleet provides more flexibility. with travel habits returning to normal and fares increasing, the question is what will happen to J demand. You seem to be a supporter of CX strategy. You lump J and PE as the PREMIUM offer. To me PE is just slightly improved Y in longhaul. It does not belong to the class of premium class, as we used to define it. CX is betting that the demand for J will dwindle and that the usual Y longhaul pax, who sometimes upgauged to J will be satisfied by PE given the price differential. CX is making that bet as opposed to many other airlines. Downsizing the J cabin certainly allows to sell many more seats (Y & PE). If I were sarcastic, I would say that CX is downgrading its brand image until a significant number of 77X are in service. And we don't know what their config will be. They introduced an average new J product (in my opinion) compared to competition and reduced their numbers (J+F) in favor of Y and PE. That is my personal opinion even if marketing of Aria is massive with influencers and advertising. This strategy might be based on a good analysis of future demand and could turn out to be a very profitable strategy. Time will tell. |
I think there are some misconceptions here. Broadly I think some assumptions being made above (CX is killing J capacity) are incorrect.
Aria 77Ws is not a material fleetwide reduction in J. The 77Ks will go under the knife. They have 40 J. Aria has 45. Each 77K to Aria conversion will add 5 J seats. 77A has 53 so it's that bird which loses 8 each. But seriously, we are splitting hairs here. In terms of what's premium and what's not. I am fully removing my sentiment and my own personal preferences. (To be candid: I don't really fly PEY or Y at all.) But, I am speaking to the market at large. The reality is PEY is a premium offering. It is 8 abreast in the 777 and A350, vs 10 and 9 respectively in Y. The pitch is significantly greater. It isn't too long ago when J seats didn't look too different from today's PEY. Setting aside romance of the sky nostalgia, on a real estate basis - the only metric that really matters in dollars and cents terms - today's PEY footprint is not vastly different from the early business class layouts or what used to be called (a long long time ago) 2nd class. That I don't care for the product myself as a customer, doesn't deny there is a very large traveling public who vote with their wallets. Either way, it doesn't matter too much if we are to call it premium, or "enhanced" economy, or whatever. The reality of the airline industry in the last 10-15 years is this is a highly purchased product with significant demand that has provided the only real secular (non cyclical) demand growth in the same period, and airlines ignore it at their own peril. Business class demand goes in cycles. The growth of PEY from zero 20 years ago to a significant footprint on every major airline today, is a market trend that airline bean counters are forced to reckon with. Personally, and this is only my speculation, but I think the gulf between J and Y is now massive (wonderfully evolved flat beds in J, same ole pain in Y) that it's quite obvious a class in between (old 2nd class = today's PEY) rises up to fill the gap. As for Aria itself, I too am disappointed by it. A basic evolution at best. With a very flimsy armrest. |
Originally Posted by QRC3288
(Post 37773675)
I think there are some misconceptions here. Broadly I think some assumptions being made above (CX is killing J capacity) are incorrect.
Aria 77Ws is not a material fleetwide reduction in J. The 77Ks will go under the knife. They have 40 J. Aria has 45. Each 77K to Aria conversion will add 5 J seats. 77A has 53 so it's that bird which loses 8 each. But seriously, we are splitting hairs here |
Originally Posted by CX860
(Post 37777330)
Don't think there is a misconception here. There are objectively less J seats on the plane. While PY count should go up, they should have just cut Y. It's not like it's binary between J and PY. Economy doesn't even start until door 4 on NH.
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Originally Posted by CX860
(Post 37777330)
Don't think there is a misconception here. There are objectively less J seats on the plane. While PY count should go up, they should have just cut Y. It's not like it's binary between J and PY. Economy doesn't even start until door 4 on NH.
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to be fair i dont think airlines should stop investing in Y, most people end up there as the reality of this world, and a good Y with decent capacity (not as premium heavy as NH/ BA/ JL etc.) can leave very good first impressions to more and more people. tho a few airlines are going even more premium heavy than before and ditching Y, maybe because lesiure travellers / vacationers have lower spending power from inflation and the state of this world and the rich stay rich.
feel like premium experience is absolutely important, but so does the Y experience- and CX's premium offering (especially aria J) now is on par with most other airlines with no standouts, and could use improvement/ uniqueness, but their Y is pretty well done to this day, not the best but nice overall. |
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