The situation has nothing to do with flying CX or booking using CX miles. Ask in the AS forum about getting awards there (but with regards to QR you’re asking about things that haven’t happened yet, since AS hasn’t joined Oneworld or announced QR award redemption rates, so, again, you might as well be asking about winning lotto numbers).

What are the current theories on CX F making a comeback by this summer?

I'm hoping to fly SFO or LAX to HKG in F, connecting through to somewhere else (assuming in J, depending on which destinations are open).

I see CX F availability in October onwards, but not a single seat in Y/J/F available with miles before then. However, it looks like CX is selling F on a lot of US markets as early as July or August.

Is the lack of award seats an availability problem or something bigger, where F isn't even actually available or likely to fly?
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I'm just trying to avoid wasting my time if there's something bigger at play beyond simple lack of availability. Thanks!

The situation has not materially changed from last month. If anything it got worse.
All you can know for certain is what CX is flying in April. US flights are down to 2 weekly (no F) for JFK and LAX. That's all (also 1 weekly from Toronto).

Knowing what flights will actually operate in July is pure guesswork. Most of those currently scheduled for July will NOT operate. They are placeholders derived from pre-covid schedules.
As most flights will not operate in July, it makes sense not to open awards to avoid all the trouble of rescheduling them.
When CX has a better grasp of what will operate, they will open awards. But I would be very surprised if they operate F.

Most of the First Class equipped aircraft (777s) are currently in storage (except the few that are currently being used for cargo only passenger flights). The 777s are also are less fuel efficient than the A350s.

Thank you for the detailed responses, it helps me understand where things currently stand. It's also making me realize that there isn't any point in planning now.

I thought that since CX was selling seats later in the year it meant there was some degree of confidence that they would operate those flights. Now I know they're just placeholders and that explains why there's no award availability (even in Y).

It appears that CX is using their 350s for most if not all long haul routes, of which are not equip with F. So it doesn’t matter if the available seats are place holders or not indeed.

CX has 4 flights this week to LAX (according to their web site timetable) - 6th 7th 8th and 12th. I did not check the schedule for March but this is perhaps something of an improvement ?

I think that is incorrect.
CX880 only flies on Monday (12th) and Wednesday (7th),
There was no flights on 6th and none scheduled on 8th. Maybe these are cargo flights?

Certainly the web site could be incorrect but but I quoted it correctly as it was at 2.30pm HK today - ticket prices, flight numbers were being quoted so not freight

Weird.
When I search at 22:37 HKG-LAX for 8th, CX only offers via JFK not direct flight.
There is no direct flight offered in April except for Monday and Wednesday (either on EF or CX).

If one wants to look for a bright(er) spot of Cathay's network in April it's probably LHR. Even though it can only take pax one way from HKG it is operating 4-5 weekly at the moment and 3 airlines (including BA and VS) combined have more than 14 flights a week.

Not quite the F demand probably since it's largely students traffic and people leaving HKG for good but that's probably the best performing route at the moment (pax number demands at least).

I ultimately flew back from LAX in March. It worked out fine but was not without its frights. , CX had scheduled 4x flights weekly when I started searching too a few months out...they then cancelled one of the flights before I booked (down to 3x weekly). It held at 3x and I booked about 5 weeks before flying. I then immediately booked my Designated Quarantine Hotel as required and passed my flight details. Just 2 weeks before departure, CX cancelled my flight too, so LAX went down to 2x that week. I was quite shocked, naive I guess. Fortunately my quarantine hotel was accommodating and was able to give me the new dates I needed due to CX's cancellation. I really had no other choice it's not like there is tons of flights from the USA to Hong Kong these days. I found out via automated email, you know those emails, like it was no big deal. I reached the MPC line before my hotel confirmed they could change my booking. I was very worried, you know having your flight cancelled with a Designated Quarantine Hotel booking, so close to departure has potential to be a major pains in the butt if the hotel is full or cannot accommodate. CX's answer to me was basically, "the schedule is not to be relied on" (paraphrasing, but yea...). !!!!! Well, at least they were honest, but I was floored! It all worked out fine for me, but I have to imagines at least one or two people on my original flight or any other flight cancelled a week or two before departure got scXXXed. Since if your hotel is full for the new dates you need to go book another hotel. Especially if you are on a budget, that could cause serious problem, since some of the cheaper hotels are quite full.

I am used to flight cancellations in the pre-covid, pre "Designated Quarantine Hotel" era. But with the rules so strict, naively I just thought there would be better coordination with flight cancellations, you know working in concert with the airlines and govt and hotels, given they are all a key part of HK's covid prevention program. So I thought there would be some minimum window where flights simply weren't cancelled. But apparently nope. The email they send me was totally just the standard email "Your flight has been changed. Your new date/time is XXXX". Lol! On a totally different day which required a complete change of my DQH booking!

It also seems possible March was really bad because of the known scheduling mess, due to the rule changes for flight crew needing to quarantine in hotel room too. Maybe that is sorted out by now. But no matter what I'm certain some passengers were left in the lurch by cancellations or schedule changes.

Does ever Cathay release more than 1 seat in First on their 773?
I'm looking to do a trip EU-HKG-SFO/LAX

It seems they never releases more than 1 seat for awards on Asia Miles.

Is my best hope waitlist?
/Jz123

Hoping this is all resolved by December as I just booked LAX-HKG CX 885(F) and HKG-BKK CX 757(J) with AA miles for December 1st. Figured I would grab the F seat while I could since re-deposit of miles is now no charge.

Hi,

It looks like CX is selling first class on flights to JFK in July/August (CX844 outbound, CX841 inbound)
Not looking to purchase first class but wouldn't mind burning some miles to upgrade from biz to first, given miles are just not worth much at this point
My question is - given that CX is still only operating once per week frequency to JFK at the moment and on a 359/35K (no first class), what's the likelihood of CX actually operating daily flights to JFK in July, let alone first class, comes July/August?

Thanks