Cathay vs ANA vs Japan 1st Class
 

I am hoping to book an award 1st class flight to Australia and New Zealand, and these 3 airlines are the most likely choices. With all that has gone on with the Coronavirus, which of these airlines do you think would be the safest bet? Do you think there will be big changes in service levels? For me ANA would be the most convenient as my home airport is IAH and ANA flies from there. The other two would require a positioning flight, but I'm not against doing that. My planned trip is a year from now so I'm hoping things will be back to a semblance of normalcy by then.

I think CX is way more likely to go bankrupt, because it only lives off international flights, and there will be very few of them in the upcoming months. Since they are foreign owned, I am not sure either Hong Kong or Chinese govt will come to their rescue.

Most of ANA/JAL flights are domestic flights inside Japan, they still operate, and Japan does a better job controlling the virus than most of the outside world (although they are not out of the woods yet). So in terms of a possible bankruptcy, ANA/JAL should be a safer bet.

Another one of those "CX will bankrupt in a few months" post :o:o:o​​​​​​​

@OP, CX does not have first class from HKG to Australia/NZ. At best you might be able to get it on your LAX-HKG leg if you were to make a positioning flight.

Yes, I am aware that on ANA and Cathay, I would only do the first leg in 1st. JAL does have a 1st class flight from HND to SYD.

Not until September 2020 at best.

I'm checking flights for February/March of next year. JAL has an HND-SYD 1st class flight listed. Do they have a 1st class flight to SYD now? (pre coronavirus)

No, They are scheduled to commence in Sept 2020 when the 777 takes over from the 787.

From RoutesOnline: Tokyo Haneda – London Heathrow JL041/042 787-8 replaced by following aircraft:
30MAR20 – 31AUG20 777-300ER (Overall 2 daily 777-300ER)
eff 01SEP20 787-9 (1 daily each 777 and 787)

Tokyo Haneda – Sydney eff 01SEP20 777-300ER replaces 787-9

Hmmm, I guess that could definitely change with the fallout from COVID-19. What is your opinion on Cathay first and business vs the other 2?

Which Award scheme are you looking to use? CX and JL are OneWorld. ANA is Star Alliance.. If OneWorld, why not Qantas direct out of DFW?

I currently have enough AA miles to do 1st class one way to Japan and Japan to Australia. I have enough Chase UR to do the Virgin Atlantic sweet spot to Japan. I have more then enough MR points. I would preferably like to burn my airline AA miles 1st. I would love a Qantas 1st class flight from DFW to SYD, but have not seen any award availability for that flight. Matter of fact I did see one weird routing a few months back. it was LAX-DFW-SYD. Then if I searched the same date DFW-SYD the 1st class flight wouldn't show up. Still those date were just a dummy search.

I think you mean Virgin Atlantic (VS) as Virgin America has ceased to be. Personally I have flown both CX and NH first class (old version) and I found of them both to be excellent. I would probably go with whichever one was cheaper/allowed me to use points I needed to burn/had my preferred schedule. If new version of NH first was in play I might have to think harder. Also as noted it is possible some airlines may not make it out of this. I consider VS and CX "higher risk" than some others. Not a huge deal but I'd probably make sure I had refundable reservations/travel insurance just in case. Keep in mind if you transfer your UR to VS and they cease operations you could very well lose your points and your tickets on NH.

You’re asking for guesses on Coronavirus impact for a year from now when the situation is literally changing daily. You might as well be asking a Ouija board or a Magic 8-ball, or asking for winning lottery numbers while you are at it. Anybody who says they know what’s going to happen is talking out their posterior. For all we know there could be a second outbreak this winter and spring 2020 in Japan that shuts NRT/HND down for transit like HKG is now. The flu pandemic outbreak for 1918-1920 had MULTIPLE outbreaks spread over those years.

Seriously? I wouldn’t bother to guess the future or make any plans that aren’t non-refundable, or prepare to eat your change fees or whatever.Get whatever booking meets your needs for scheduling, timing, hard and soft product plus availability and be prepared to have those plans change or be cancelled if visas get suspended.

Yes. I edited it. AS mentioned ANA would be the most convenient, as it would require no position flights. Lot of thoughts are flying through my head. If I choose the ANA route, I might do something like this, all assuming I found the award space.
Option 1. IAH-HND on ANA in F, HND to SYD on JAL RT, and HND-JFK if I could get the new Suite flight. then find my way back to Houston
Option 2 IAH-SYD in F and J on ANA

As you can tell, I want to fly first class one time. It'll most likely be the only time it happens.

Fully aware this crap could still be happening or in round 2 next year. I willing to eat the cost of redepositing miles etc. I look at it as a cost of doing business when you have to plan so far ahead in normal times, and these times are not normal.

My recommendation still stands: don’t try and guess the future, just pick flights that will work for you and expect you may very well have to cancel or change them. Because you would be doing JL/QF/CX flights using AA miles there are nuances to the awards you need to understand that are best addressed in their forum, not here.

There are lots of review out there - try reading some. For me I prefer the excellent food and style of service on japanese airlines compared to CX but your preference might be different - read the reviews to get a feel for the differences and see what fits you best.

I Flew ORD-HND-SYD on NH in F and then J. The flight ORD-HND in F was marvellous... the problem was it was so good that going "back" to J for the SYD flight was....almost painful. (Massive First World Problem I know) Just saying.....

I have just managed a First Class on JL ORD-HND-SYD using AAdavantage miles, however its classed as 2 Sectors Awards unlike QF DFW-SYD having said that I have not seen any QF First Class awards EX USA for about 2 years using AA Miles. Neither AN or CX have First Class in Australia or NZ. ANA are presently using 2 First Class Hard Products, Cabin Service as always is Outstanding.

As other poster have mention you need to Value use of any FF Points, you have, as always find the seats on the required dates.

To people who have remarked on CX viability The Whole ofChina is now Domestic to them and its likely IMHO their HKG Based competition will not last the current Crisis. As The Swire group survived in HKG after almost 4 years of Japanese Occupation and have massive Food and Beverage Interests Remember people will always need to Eat and Drink.

As a former British Prime Minister said during a run-up to an election, a week is a Long Time in Politics as Far as the COVID-19 virus goes ,24 Hours is much the same Although Japan may have been OK 24 Hours ago it isn't Today. Its also likely, Late Starter New Orleans will overtake Seattle and NYC as the biggest number of cases per Capita in a matter of Days.i

There were quite a few for late March and early April back when I was looking in early March. Ex-Aus was harder but I saw some of those as well. Was seriously tempted but figured this was going to get worse before it got better and I was right. This was before all the serious lockdowns but I could see those coming.

I’ve flown on all 3 F services to SE Asia. I flew NH F LAX-NRT last week, as the only passenger in F. I used 91k Lifemiles to book this 3 segment award. Only the NRT segment was F. Quite enjoyable. Attentive service. Food was quite good, but I’d say JAL is usually a little better.

Booking far in advance, I often find that JL cancels F service on my SE Asia leg. I don’t find the 787 that great to fly on.

CX used to have great food in F, but that’s really declined the last few years. Seats are older in F, but pretty comfortable.

So, I’d rate it JL->NH->CX.

Missed Original quote in Post

FYI if considering transferring to VS for the NH "sweet spot" in the near term you may want to consider the linked article. Please note I am NOT saying they are going under but they are seeking government assistance and per the FT article referenced they do seem to be the weakest of the major UK carriers.

https://www.headforpoints.com/2020/0...for-state-aid/

Anybody can offer award seats on flights that are unlikely to operate. QF have terminated all International Services.

I too have flown all three in F. The deal breaker for me would be the HKG-SYD leg in CX having no F. Between JL and ANA I think I’d probably say JL just takes it. I wouldn't turn my nose up at any of these F products though.

In terms of specific areas: favourite seat is CX, favourite service JL, favourite food JL, favourite wine NH, favourite lounges CX.

edit: if there’s no ANA F TYO-SYD, then yes, JL it has to be.

I may have to the HND-SYD route in business. Who has the better business class in your opinion? JL or ANA? Also how likely is it in F opens up on JL at a later date on this route?