The end of CX?
 

In recent months, CX has to rely on mostly transit passengers to maintain operation. Now the transit passengers are gone as well. What's left? Will CX able to survive?

If the government agrees to close the Chinese border, will KA be the first airline to shut down?

HK Airlines would be at more at risk than KA. Agree it should be a pretty bad year for the CX, but I don't think they will fold.
They can raise money in the market, and also they have Swire and Air China as their major shareholders, can always try to ask for more funding.
If HKA folds, then CX becomes the only HK based player again (since they own HK Express now) so in the long run it should be fine for CX, but what I'm worried about is with only one player left, prices may rise for us!
So hopefully someone will finally acquire HKA...

Who says transit passengers are gone? For now passengers transiting HKG are not being denied entry to most destinations, including key CX transit destinations. Sectors on my CX flights last week were full and I expect the same when I travel again next week, unless the rules are changed to deny entry to pax transiting hkg.

CX survived through SARS. So far, I don't think the 2019 nCoV outbreak is any more serious than SARS.

it has surpassed SARS. https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/28/asia/...hnk/index.html

I wasn’t plugged enough into the world to know much about SARS, but to my untrained eye it appears that:
1) the current outbreak is less deadly (fatalities/cases)
2) the world is responding better & faster, likely due to the experience with SARS (leaving aside any possible delays initially within China that I do not know of)

if it’s going to get you, it will, but as of now I’m reasonably confident that practicing good personal hygiene and common sense will keep me safe.

so yes, while it’s going to be a $#!tty year for CX, I don’t think they’re going under, Nor do I think that this is going to be the virus that’ll end the world as we know.

I second this. If we are going with number of confirmed cases alone, many influenza have more.

The nCoV may be not as serious as SARS, but there was no protests before SARS and HK economy rebounded quickly after SARS because of Chinese travelers. It's different this time.

Sure, but I still think financially CX is far from going bankrupt. Plus, I think CA will be happy to buy CX if Swire wants to sell.

Not exactly. The Wuhan Coronavirus is nowhere near the fatality of SARS. Yes, it infected more people, but much fewer people died of this virus. So I do not think the impact of this virus on CX is as bad as SARS.

While I’ll admit that the forwards are probably part-propaganda, one can’t ignore the numbers- the current number of Coronavirus cases, globally, isn’t that different from the number of influenza related deaths in the US alone, last year (boring bog standard flu).

Yeah, no... CX will survive

The stories is still developing, it's too early to said CX will end or not. But Chinese carriers + HX should see more difficulties than CX group.

Cathay's been through much tougher times than this, and for the most part HK transit seems unaffected. Flight loads have been healthy.

Much tougher than the sum of US trade war, protests and Virus? Really?
Current flight loads are not healthy.

But, I agree that CX can overcome this if it is reactive in terms of staff management.

This will be the catalyst for CX to reorient its strategy away from China and towards an international pan-Asian strategy. This was inevitable with the rise of Chinese carriers who can offer direct serves to Chinese pax instead of a foreign transit in HKG. Thus the protests and Wuhan flu has just accelerated the need to implement a strategic rethink.

The Union plans to go on strike next week if CX/KA refuse to cancel all China flights. Another bad news for CX!

Rupert Hogg probably happy he got out when he did.

I had a few flights coming up from Feb 13th SFO-HGK-CCU and return (one RT above every 5 weeks). I am very reluctant to transit through HKG and take a KA flight considering the number of Mainland Chinese still coming into HK via air and land border points.

And I'm also concerned if the US (or some other country) decides to extend the mainland Chinese restrictions to HKG as well.

I have already cancelled a few tickets and switched travel to QR via LAX, and one trip on UA via DEL. I paid the cancellation fee since CX won't waive it for refunds. But this goes to show how poorly they are handling this (or how they are stuck between a rock and a hard place).

This certainly isn't the end for CX, but I think it is my end with CX. After 2020 (or sooner if this continues), I plan on switching to SQ probably for my travels.

It's just not worth it anymore, with the horrible KA flights and now this.

CX is now at the mercy of the Chinese Gov't.

I hate to say it but I've made a similar decision. I just cancelled a revenue business class ticket transiting HKG to JFK. The uncertainty of what the US Gov't might do in a few weeks time to flights from HKG was a risk I wasn't willing to take. Booked QR instead. Paid the cancellation fee but well worth it for the peace of mind.

I can understand the other concerns, about the potential for the US to introduce additional restrictions for those who have transited HKG (although I personally believe that to be extremely unlikely), but I really can't understand this. The current data suggests that around 0.00001% of mainland Chinese are infected. Being afraid of transiting HKG because there is a one in 10,000,000 chance that a given mainlander you might be in the airport at the same time as has the virus seems a little insane.

Respectfully I understand what you are saying, but then why are HK nurses going on strike (threat or confirmed ?) unless the border points are closed ? Also, why are CX/KA unions going on strike due to continuing flights to mainland China ?

Surely the risk is higher than 0.00001%? I saw a statistic on Twitter yesterday (unsure if true or not - it is twitter after all), that the main border points between mainland China and HK are still open with nearly net 100,000 inbound migration into HK just in one day.

The unions are striking for political reasons, of course. Many political entities are trying to use the situation for their own gain, which is perfectly understandable. Sudden unchecked migration from mainland to HK isn't possible; without a two-way permit a mainland resident can't come to HK except for transit to a third country. The borders are indeed open, but as I said above, your risk in HK of even coming across an infected mainlander, let alone being infected by one, is very low.

Edited to add: the risk is likely to actually be lower than 0.00001%. That's just the chance that a randomly selected mainlander is infected. Then they have to actually transmit to you, which divides the risk further.

Majority of those 100k people are HK residents. Many HK residents actually live in Shenzhen and go to HK for work, school and other business every single day because of lower living cost in Shenzhen. The Chinese tourists now only account for less than 10% of the cross border population.

I don't believe CX and Medical workers' unions are striking for political reasons. There is a reason other countries have cut off travelers from China.

I figure the risk to be higher. A mainlander doesn't need to infect me. He needs to unknowingly infect someone in HKG, and with an up to 14 day incubation period before they develop symptoms during which time they can infect so many others - that is a risk I don't need to take.

Likelihood of CX going under is probably less than 3M turning around its corporate performance due to increased mask sales.

I agree the chance of catching the virus due to a transit in HKG is extremely low (but one should wear a mask and eat carefully). I also agree that the US restricting entry or quarantining those who have transited in HKG is a more reasonable, although still unlikely IMHO, excuse to avoid HKG. However, I disagree that the unions are striking for political reasons only. Certainly there are political groups behind, but there's also the genuine concern that Mainland Chinese who are able to enter to HKSAR may choose to do so to get a better treatment, given that they have more confidence in the HKSAR public health system. Even if the percentage is low, considering the population, this could still be a huge burden to the HKSAR.

Not to mention that Chinese traveler can legally enter HKSAR with ongoing transit ticket. A lot of Chinese just using fake air ticket to visit HKSAR but in fact they just go to TST, Causeway Bay and then back to China border.
Now, it's time to fix the bug, at least at this moment stop allow Chinese traveler using this method to enter HKSAR border.

I would still transit in HKG but I do think this will significantly impact CX and probably most other airlines in the region.

I have an upcoming flight transiting HKG in J, i'll be traveling with four other colleagues, they were so adamant that they wouldn't travel via HKG so our corporate travel department re-booked us on SQ via SIN instead. Kind of illogical but whatever.

Is this a theoretical loophole or has it been proven to work?

It's proven. Originally its benefit to Chinese pax as they can easily transit to SZX or to others Mainland China area using ground transport after landed HKG

But a lot of Chinese abuse it as a short trip to Hong Kong for shopping.

Thanks

I was skeptical at first
But I was told you can just use a cancellable ticket to satisfy this requirement, even if Immigration Department HKSAR checks it.

Close the border then. We don't control immigration policy, and it's fxcked.


Edit 14:32: I have been further told that PRC NIA will check for foreign stamps for frequent exploiters of this loophole, and not many travelers will risk this loophole if lawful endorsements are available. Although given some countries don't issue visa or passport stamps to PRC passport holders (AU and NZ come to mind), I am not fully convinced this is an effective safeguard.

Normally, they bought a seat holding ticket from Taobao(Just within 100HKD) to pleased HK border control to gain access.

Yes, they cannot use this method to fake HK border control too often, but its time to fix the loophole

Given current circumstances, agree. It’s like a formerly inconsequential fire on a carrier that, if unchecked or monitored, may cause the loss of the ship.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...ep-flight-cuts

More cuts coming up...

Just adding a snippet / summary:

The HK Immigration Department will write DT (I am not sure what it means, some say it's delete travel others say doubtful transit) on any abusers' passports and those with two DTs will be denied entry into HK using this method.

Would help if Immigration Dept released a statement confirming these practices exist, and transit numbers for the last five days.

Legislator Helena Wong Pik-Wan’s brought up the transit issue in Legco press conference

黃碧雲：停止自由行簽注沒有意義

http://news.now.com/home/local/playe...39&refer=Share

Whilst that is true, it only gives them up to 7 days to stay at HK. For people who then needs to go to USA or Australia they still need to so somewhere else for another 7 days.

But yes it is definitely a big loophole and will not stop mainland Chinese coming to HK for now.