CX 870/879 transition
 

last 744 long haul to SFO 25 oct 2014.

no 3rd SFO flt

870 / 879 will get 77G; 872 / 873 will remain 77H

Ugh, this makes sense. I assumed this is what CX would do if they didn't introduce a 3rd flight. 77G has more capacity than 77H. Although the loss of the 747 will reduce capacity further to SFO, it won't be as bad. However, now we lose F on one flight a day.

Btw, where is your information from?

OAG & cathaypacific.com

not that i see it daily, just stumbled upon.

i see. I've got my fingers crossed for a third daily - and have so for a long time - but it seems like there are definitely some hurdles to getting that to happen...SFO has less connecting traffic due to lack of AA presence, total capacity ex-SFO to HKG is already higher than any other North America gateway (unfortunately for us, >half that capacity is *A), and the lounge would either need a renovation or they'd have to transition back to BA, which seems unlikely. The SFO lounge simply can't handle any more people - it is already chalker full with pax waiting for just a single 77H.

77G seems like the better of two unfavorable solutions (from a pax point of view) so the decrease in SFO capacity after downgrading from 74K isn't as significant as it would be if it switched to 77H. SFO will lose another 19 seats daily after the transition, versus an 84 seat loss if the 74K was downgraded to 77H. It's also worth noting SFO has already experienced a 20 seat/day decline in capacity since 74A switched to 74K (ignoring seasonal schedule changes when 77W makes an appearance).

Here are the seat totals:

77H: 275 (-84 from 74K)
77G: 340 (-19 from 74K)
74K: 359
74A: 379 (reference only)

I can only imagine that, regardless, seats will be more expensive and awards harder to redeem.

CX 870/879 transition
 

I'm going to miss the op/other-ups to F on 879!

SFO is a DM heavy route for CX

the connecting traffic from India, Philippines, china, Thailand ... are low yielding at times.

SQ still corners considerable premium traffic on HKG-SFO-HKG

UA covers *A across far east.

no wonder cathay decides to go easy on the 3rd flight, considering op-ups, competition & yields.

CX website timetable shows the last JNB 744 as 10/25 as well.

This is still just under a year away. There is still hope for a 3rd flight yet, CX could announce the extra capacity anytime from now until 6 months before 747 retires from SFO route. Alternatively CX may wish to wait until sumer season (May 2014) for increase in capacity, should they decide to increase frequency.

probably; yes if looked at CX dumping capacity to the US & no considering FRA's downguage.

Aircraft availability could also be an issue? Considering the recent announcement to increase LAX/ORD plus the addition of EWR, will there be enough 77Ws to go around?

Me thinks the 3rd flight will come when there are enough a/c to serve.

On another note, would also love to see double daily to both ORD & YYZ.

Originally they were planning to have 870/879 go to 4x weekly 77W, and 3x weekly 744 this winter but I guess that has been delayed till next year (a/c availability likely also an issue).

Good thing a daily 744 for CX879 won't mean any inevitable fuelstops since they can just jam the extra weight cargo onto 873 operated by a greater ranged 77W....

I can't see a third daily making sense in SFO, given the *A dominance at the hub. I'd think a second daily to ORD would make much more sense in terms of onward connection throughout North, Central and South America.

Point taken. I think the argument (hope) more has to do with CX actually having subtracted capacity in SFO due to metal changes. When CX's 2nd daily to SFO started, it was served by 2x 74A. So CX could add a 3x daily without really exceeding its old seat #s. In fact, if CX flew 3x 77H's to SFO it would be barely an increase from the seats flown with CX's old 2x daily 74As.

Capacity
Before: 758 seats/day (379 x2, 74A)
After:615 seats/day (275 + 330, 77H and 77G)

So in essence SFO is getting a 20% decline in CX seats as the metal changes.

I can't remember where I read it...it either was an analyst piece or on here...but I don't think the ORD load factors are as high as hoped for? And IME, SFO flights are packed (especially in EY). I hope SFO prices don't get too expensive as seat #s decline. Seems to me 74A - 74K - 77G transition means fewer premium (J/F) seats, which means more $$$ to spend and fewer awards to get.

I'm thankful SQ flies that market, because if CX decides to increase J pricing at least I can use SQ as a back-up. They have an identical timing to CX873 (midnight departure, early morning HKIA arrival). Pricing is competitive. Already have enough miles to make DM anyway.

If u think about it a lot of routes to subject to decrease in capacity. Eg LHR in the peak they had 3 x 744 and 1 x 343 and now converting it to 5 x 77W

I don't think LHR has actually seen a decline though? Right? Aren't the seat #s going forward with 5x daily to LHR is similar to the 4x of the past? I think if you do the math LHR's total # of seats at 5x daily 77W isn't too far off 4x dailies of the earlier configs (it's greater if more 77W to LHR switch to 77G).

Anyway, this is all just pointless hope on my part because there's nothing I can do about it. In my business, a 20% decline is a meaningful amount...either SFO is weaker than I thought, or demand is there and prices go up.