FlyerTalk Forums - CX 870/879 transition

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A capacity rollback makes a certain degree of sense, though.

Lower capacity means vastly better aircraft utilization, and allows CX to put the two long haul equipment that would have to be dedicated to a third daily SFO into routes where they are more likely to achieve similar revenue profiles.

Operating a third daily just to pick up a bunch of discount flyers doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AC*SE (Post 21722781)

I can't see a third daily making sense in SFO, given the *A dominance at the hub. I'd think a second daily to ORD would make much more sense in terms of onward connection throughout North, Central and South America.

IAD is also a hub dominated by *A with limited AA/OW presence. Yet BA flies there 3x daily and has done so for many years. So a 3rd daily to SFO isn't far fetched if the argument is concerning the lack of OW presence.

My feeling once again is the lack of aircraft availability that is the main factor for holding back the third flight.

Quote:

Originally Posted by QRC3288 (Post 21722941)

Point taken. I think the argument (hope) more has to do with CX actually having subtracted capacity in SFO due to metal changes. When CX's 2nd daily to SFO started, it was served by 2x 74A. So CX could add a 3x daily without really exceeding its old seat #s. In fact, if CX flew 3x 77H's to SFO it would be barely an increase from the seats flown with CX's old 2x daily 74As.

Exactly! At that point LAX was also being run by 3x daily 74A. So the increase to 4x daily 77W next year is also barely a capacity increase from where it once was.

Quote:

Originally Posted by QRC3288 (Post 21722941)

I'm thankful SQ flies that market, because if CX decides to increase J pricing at least I can use SQ as a back-up. They have an identical timing to CX873 (midnight departure, early morning HKIA arrival).

Yes, the SQ presence will keep CX from slacking off in this route.

Quote:

Originally Posted by StarFeat (Post 21721869)

Aircraft availability could also be an issue? Considering the recent announcement to increase LAX/ORD plus the addition of EWR, will there be enough 77Ws to go around?

Me thinks the 3rd flight will come when there are enough a/c to serve.

On another note, would also love to see double daily to both ORD & YYZ.

Originally they were planning to have 870/879 go to 4x weekly 77W, and 3x weekly 744 this winter but I guess that has been delayed till next year (a/c availability likely also an issue).

I don't think the 77W aircraft availability is a significant issue, I'm pretty sure starting this year, CX is getting a new 77W each month

IME, I'm pretty sure SFO does have a great amount of demands both in premium and Y class. But revenues wise, it would make more sense to put the 744s on a shorter regional route with higher demands, but I would certainly love to see a third daily flight

Quote:

Originally Posted by jona970318 (Post 21727905)

I don't think the 77W aircraft availability is a significant issue, I'm pretty sure starting this year, CX is getting a new 77W each month

Agree, they are adding EWR, ORD & LAX. I think the significant issue is that CX think that those flights will earn more money than a 3rd SFO

Quote:

Originally Posted by CX828 (Post 21714452)

This is still just under a year away. There is still hope for a 3rd flight yet, CX could announce the extra capacity anytime from now until 6 months before 747 retires from SFO route. Alternatively CX may wish to wait until sumer season (May 2014) for increase in capacity, should they decide to increase frequency.

There is a reason why the 747 will still serve SFO for about another 10 months next year. I really believe capacity is the rationale behind it. Think about it. If there wasn't enough demand to consistently fill the 747, CX would have pulled it out of the SFO rotation by now in favor of 2x daily 77Ws and have that 747 still serve one of the LHR, CDG, or FRA flights all the way to Oct 25th next year. Also considering the historical occurrences of fuel stops in Japan/Korea/Taiwan westbound during winter season, it would make more sense to have SFO go to an all 77W operation, but yet the 747 still remains this winter. Whereas the European flights that almost never encountered fuel stops with the 747 year-round, will see it disappear on Jan 1st.

Would not surprise me at all if the 3rd flight pops out during winter 2014-2015.

From my contact at CX, they need 77W to fly Europe because of noise regulation there. That's why they pulled out of 870/879 during winter season.
Actually they really want to fly 77W because 747 is not making money even if a full flight.