Typhoon Tembin
 

Nervously eyeing the storm track on HKO which seems to have Tembin heading towards HK.

Had a planned trip to Taipei on Sunday but not sure how likely flights are to be going ahead HKG-TPE (or maybe they can track around it?).

http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/tc_gis_e.htm

You should be fine on Sunday. A FLT can fly above a typhoon. It is taking off and landing that are usually impacted.

This morning's computer runs are showing a possible u-turn, with the storm heading back to Taiwan.

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/imatcf/?name=TEMBIN

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/imatcf/data/TEMBIN.PNG

This typhoon appears to be interacting with another system, and the Fujiwhara effect may be in play given the forecast for south-westerly movement. This makes the forecast of the track to be extremely difficult.

Another factor is we need to keep an eye on its path through Taiwan. Due to the terrain, a more northerly path is more likely to mean that the typhoon will be weaker after passing through Taiwan.

There are many factors affecting this typhoon, and even a very slight change can have a large effect on its track and strength. Usually, I would take most forecasts with a grain of salt, but this time, it looks like I'm having salt for the mains, and everything else for the side dish.

Yeah but I think all major forecast models agree that on Sunday neither HKG nor TPE would be severely impacted (KHH would be another story).

Agree, based on current forecasts.

I probably should've added that in as well in my last post. :)

I'm flying to Rome from Syd Saturday... All will be well!!!

That's good enough science for me! :D

Latest Updated: 23 August 2012 21:30 HKT GMT+8

Cathay Pacific Airways advises that due to expected severe impact of Severe Typhoon Tembin affecting the southern Taiwan, the scheduled flights from Hong Kong to Kaohsiung (CX6758/KA452, CX6752/KA432, CX6754/KA436, CX6760/KA454) tomorrow (24 August) will be cancelled. Flights departing from Kaohsiung to Hong Kong (CX6757/ KA451, CX6759/KA453, CX6753/KA433, CX6755/KA437, CX6761/KA455) on 24 August will also be cancelled.

The other Kaohsiung flights on 24 August may be subject to further changes.

This Typhopn is interesting, seems keeps heading toward HKG, but its been projected to make a u turn, but not so far.

That doesn't sound correct.

Else all the HKG-Taiwan FLTs will have significant delays / cancellations today, having Tembin in between. I don't know much about Aeronautics, but AFAIK, FLTs (except some extremely short-hauls) mostly fly in the stratosphere, except for take offs and landings. A typhoon, like any tropical cyclone, is a tropospheric system. Therefore, flying above it should not be too big a deal.

A tropical storm can reach about 16,000m, or 50,000ft. Commerical airlines top out at about 41,000ft.

Anyways, as projected, Tembin is turning SW now.

A fully-developped typhoon maybe, but even a tropical storm? Also, I suppose that's only for the very small region near the center, which FLTs can easily bypass, right?

Well made the trip to TPE yesterday instead, we flew directly over the eye of Tembin according to the pilot.

Turbulence was fairly light and I did nap a little, no food service on either sector as the crew were made to sit down for basically the entire flight. They did pass out hot sandwiches on descent.