Storm Ciarán - impact on BA operations
 

An area of low pressure over the Atlantic has become the third named storm of the season, Storm Ciarán. It's expected to arrive in the UK on Wednesday evening and has resulted in a number of weather warnings being issued for a mixture of flooding and wind.

To what extent is this likely to impact BA operations? London appears to get off more lightly than western parts, but I am guessing there will still be quite a number of pre-emptive cancellations. France and Spain appear to be particularly heavily affected with winds of up to 100mph and torrential rain.

I have a TP run starting with an overnight in JER on Wed evening. Feels like this is definitely not going to go to plan, with 30-40 knot crosswinds forecast at JER!

Yes JER is somewhat exposed on top of that rock so will be affected if the current forecast plays out. To what extent is still shaping out in terms of pre planning. Tomorrow afternoon post group call I’d expect to see any preemptive canx for weds and the same on the weds afternoon call for Thursday. Pressure systems can fill or deepen between now and there expected time of impact, so lots can still change for better and for worse.

Can you get there earlier on Wednesday somehow? If I understand you correctly, you start your TP run on Thursday morning, yes? If so then it will be up to BA to sort you out. But if you are not there you are in trouble.
So (if I understand you correctly) I would do whatever is necessary to get there on Wednesday (e.g. go earlier even if from a regional airport) to avoid the loss of the whole trip.

when you say you have an overnight, are you going out and coming back on the plane that nightstops?

Yes - BA1352 on Wed evening, BA1339 on Thu morning. I guess if BA1352 is cancelled or diverts (presumably back to LHR?) it's not the end of the world as I would presumably be allowed to drop the first sector of my TP run. But I would then have a hard time getting the TPs, not that it would be crucial.

If they played hardball and refused to let me drop the sector, I still wouldn't be in an irretrievable situation as I'd simply take the next flight to JER and do a B2B, albeit that could cause quite some delay to my TP run. I'd like to hope that pragmatism would be shown (esp. as it's a BAH booking, of course).

well if you are on the night stopper going out and on that same plane coming back, i would do nothing right now.

jive never had this situation myself, and FT reports indicate BA will usually with soeme persuasion allow one to drop the first leg (but you are right you may not get ORC for this as this is a voluntary change you are requesting) but just to add a note of caution, if your flight is delayed or cancelled, there is no guarantee that you would get on the next flight as others too will be trying to get on it, so wor thy having a plan C too.

I would expect some disruption in JER on Wednesday evening and through Thursday as the weather forecast here is looking pretty bad - southerly severe gale force 9 and possibly storm force 10, so very possibly outside crosswind limits and indeed outside ground handling limits.

Hmm fair time to go yet but for Jersey all models say dangerously windy on Thursday but just how bad is to be seen. UKV (UK Met Office model) is a bit of an outlier with 80+kt gusts for St Helier Thursday morning. That would be quite spectacular to see and frankly best seen from a long way away.

Is city likely to be impacted? I’m flying back on Thursday afternoon.

According to Jersey Met, Thursday looks ‘interesting”. Local and accurate forecasts are at https://www.gov.je/weather/

I'm set to be finishing a trip in JER on Thursday and I'll be devastated if they cancel my b2b and I have to claim ORC :D

More pressing will be getting to LHR from HEL on Wednesday afternoon tho!

M

Latest update from the JER authorities here: https://www.gov.je/News/2023/Pages/S...Statement.aspx

If the current forecasts are even vaguely correct they’ll be miles outside the safe operating limit for the airport.

Fortuitously I returned the garden furniture to the garage at lunchtime, as it was actually dry! Also, we live in a small valley and are usually well sheltered. But certainly the prospects for the airport, and indeed our south coast, are not looking good.

Windguru is forecasting gusts of nearly 50 knots on Thursday evening in London, which sounds problematic (in a “likely to not go entirely as planned”) for my (non-BA) LHR-KEF flight.