Extremely full TATL flight - chances of beng involuntarily bumped on redemption?
 

I'm flying to London from the US in a few days for a family event.

I made a rewards booking in WTP and have been monitoring expertflyer with the intention of upgrading if any space became available.

Much to my surprise, the flight actually appears to be more fully booked than any other BA flight I've seen.
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...327103e0c5.png
As my event is the day after the flight and I'll only be in London for 48 hours, I'm somewhat concerned that the flight will be overbooked and I might not be able to board (as happened to me once long before I had any status).

I'm sure that isn't very likely, but I'm wondering if I should perhaps try to proactively change my flight to ensure I make the party and don't end up stranded in the US.

How often does this happen in practice? Does the fact that this was a rewards booking make it any more likely for me to be "bumped" (or less pressingly downgraded)?

does it happen? yes it does but not as often people think it does - especially on international flights

Personally many on here wouldn't worry but make sure you do OLCI as early as possible.

Yes if you think an earluer flight is a better option then yes look to change to it but remember (a) there may not be any redemtions on it and (b) there may be change fees to pay as well

BTW is is very useful to give the route as you will get more tailored adviceand there could be specific reasons that could affect flights.

You're a Gold, so I think it's extremely unlikely you'd get bumped.

Being bumped or downgraded is very rare indeed. Where it becomes much more likely is when there is a plane swap from a large to a smaller plane, or where operational problems force cancellations, and then there just aren't enough seats to go round on the remaining flights.

You can decrease your already-small chances of problems by choosing seats in advance (free for GCH) and checking in at the earliest opportunity. Your GCH status also helps reduce the chance.

Personally I'd leave it. I'd go in and select my seat (if you can) and do OLCI. There's a chance some of those will be no shows, there's a chance people will get shuffled around the cabins, there's a chance they'll ask for volunteers at the gate and if you have time to spare you could cash in.

I don't think the reward booking makes much, if any difference, you could argue the other that your status makes it less likely you'll get bumped. Given you have time on your side I'd leave it to fate.

Can the OP check whether there's been an aircraft or schedule change?

In addition to getting seats NOW if OP hasn't already done this and doing OLCI ASAP, OP should research Plan B, C, D, etc. in advance and carry hard copies of details of alternate flights. Become familiar with BA CoC and EC261 rules as well as USA DOT rules for IDBs, which require solicitation of volunteers.

OP might also want to think in advance whether to accept WT seats on the flight if WT+ isn't available.

The chance of you being invol. bumped from this flight is very close to zero - in particular if you do OLCI. BA is obliged to look for volunteers for VDB and often there will more than enough pax prepared to give up their seats in exchange of cash. There is nothing to worry about - you will be on that flight.

I would have thought so...I would bet on the OP being upgraded to CW than being thrown off.

Please report back.

Honestly, I'd be 100 times more worried about getting stuck in traffic on the way to the airport than being bumped from the flight.

You're gold. That means that just about anybody else will be bumped ahead of you.

The flight has F1 - OK, that's a lot of revenue, but it means they think they can squeeze someone else in somehow.

The odds of being bumped, as a random passenger, are approx. 1 in 12,000 in the US. Add to that the fact that you're gold, and the likelihood of missed connections, volunteers for denied boarding, and simple no-shows, I'd still consider you very safe.

NO, F1 means that the airline is willing to pay someone else to get off the flight, and to pay to downgrade someone else, if a customer appears late and is willing to buy an extremely expensive ticket, much more than the cost of an IDV/VDB and/or downgrade compensation.

F1 means that BA are happy to bump a Y passenger if they can sell a full fare F ticket. There is almost no chance of BA bumping a Gold in WT+.

The real risks here are weather & mechanical. Denied boarding for oversale is way, way, way down the risk list.

We don't know your routing (most helpful if you would supply), but there may also be alternatives in the event that the very slim risk becomes a reality.

I'm glad to hear it's not very likely! I guess I probably knew that, but just wanted a bit of reassurance as the only time I've ever been bumped was on the same flight to another family function 5 years ago (which I missed).

For those who were wondering, the flight is 214 BOS-LHR on Oct. 3. It looks like the earlier flight was cancelled - maybe explaining how full it is.

How do you get a single result in EF to show both revenue and reward buckets (F and Z)?

Is there a later TATL nonstop from BOS that day? Are their connections (leaving late enough to be used if there's a problem with your seats) through JFK/PHL/CLT/etc. that would get you to London in time?

That certainly would be nice - I don't think I've ever been upgraded by a European airline. Does it happen often?

Sadly there don't seem to be any later oneworld flights that day but, given what I've seen in this thread, I'm not too concerned anymore. I was mainly worried that the fact this is a redemption would negate my status and bump me to the bottom of the list. I'm glad to hear that doesn't seem to be the case!

It happened to me on a revenue ticket earlier this year. Reports are that OLCI but not downloading/printing a boarding pass before you get to the airport MAY increase your chances (it worked for me).

To Goldies in WTP on a full flight out of Boston? Yes.

If you have your BAEC number in the reservation, have an allocated seat and do OLCI as soon as possible, you'll be fine. It may not work immediately at OLCI if they have to shuffle a lot of people, but just try later.

It's people without seat reservations, without status and who booked late on who are more at risk. If it totally suits you to go another day or another route then by all means volunteer but personally I'd only do that if they can guarantee the alternative arrangements at check-in, not if it's on a standby or "we will let you know" basis.

The not printing boarding passes makes zero difference to upgrades, since you are shown to DUT as firmly on board. But it does allow you to play around with seat selection. So if you select a seat next to another Goldie (careful analysis needed here) and they need a couple of seats together, then that obviously helps. Also if you are upgraded before departure - usually it happens in the final hour so you would have to hold a boarding pass at this point - then not having printed (etc) your boarding pass allows you to select seats in the new cabin more easily.

Bear in mind this is a robot however. If you like your seat, I would OLCI and do the boarding pass to get it out of the way.

I should also point out, it is quite common for BA to zero out a flight when they know they are pretty much full, even if there are actually a few spare seats, since they need to allow (e.g.) staff duty travel seating. So it's not unusual for a flight with say 4 spare seats to be zero'd out since they know that by the time it gets to the spin cycle, it will all come out in the wash.

At the end of the first paragraph, do you really mean "not having checked in"? Wouldn't this put the OP more at risk of IDB. Moreover, will BA give an OPUP to someone who hasn't yet checked in as the deadline approaches (versus being told of the OPUP when dropping bags at the counter)?

Yes, that's not clear. It's best to check in, but not get the boarding pass. I'll correct it.

BA selling both of its flights in WT and one of them in WTP and CW. In addition, as a backup, connections on AA, IB, and EI. Bottom line is that even if you are denied boarding, thee are plenty of options if you still wish to travel, some of them such as EI with an LCY arrival if that makes things even simpler.

I'm guessing that this has something to do with the fact that there's no A class on BOS flights. Perhaps a glitch in EF?

No glitch. It's simply that it's BOS. I could tell that from the OP, given that he said that he wasn't flying from DXB - that's how those flights are shown on EF.

No, there’s a DUT list of people who are pre-authorised for upgrades if required. If late check-ins force an upgrade, it will be someone from this list, not the person arriving late. It’s pretty easy (and quick) in FLY to regrade when required so it looks pretty seamless... and someone will have the pleasant ‘red beep’ when going through the gate later.

c-w-s good to know! I wasn't sure if it made a difference or not - I'd just read it on a few posts. It was the first out of numerous BA JFK-LHR flights where I got an OpUp (and DH did too!), and the first where I did not download/print a boarding pass. But I know, correlation does not equal causation.

It really doesn't. My last OpUp was 10mins before boarding a BOS 》 LHR flight when I noticed my seat number had changed in the app. I refreshed my boarding card in the app and boarded to my new cabin....BA didn't actually tell me I had been upgraded :)