Extremely full TATL flight - chances of beng involuntarily bumped on redemption?
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Mar 2019
Programs: BAEC Gold
Posts: 10
Extremely full TATL flight - chances of beng involuntarily bumped on redemption?
I'm flying to London from the US in a few days for a family event.
I made a rewards booking in WTP and have been monitoring expertflyer with the intention of upgrading if any space became available.
Much to my surprise, the flight actually appears to be more fully booked than any other BA flight I've seen.
As my event is the day after the flight and I'll only be in London for 48 hours, I'm somewhat concerned that the flight will be overbooked and I might not be able to board (as happened to me once long before I had any status).
I'm sure that isn't very likely, but I'm wondering if I should perhaps try to proactively change my flight to ensure I make the party and don't end up stranded in the US.
How often does this happen in practice? Does the fact that this was a rewards booking make it any more likely for me to be "bumped" (or less pressingly downgraded)?
I made a rewards booking in WTP and have been monitoring expertflyer with the intention of upgrading if any space became available.
Much to my surprise, the flight actually appears to be more fully booked than any other BA flight I've seen.
As my event is the day after the flight and I'll only be in London for 48 hours, I'm somewhat concerned that the flight will be overbooked and I might not be able to board (as happened to me once long before I had any status).
I'm sure that isn't very likely, but I'm wondering if I should perhaps try to proactively change my flight to ensure I make the party and don't end up stranded in the US.
How often does this happen in practice? Does the fact that this was a rewards booking make it any more likely for me to be "bumped" (or less pressingly downgraded)?
#2
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Brighton. UK
Programs: BA Gold / VS /IHG Diamond & Ambassador
Posts: 14,196
does it happen? yes it does but not as often people think it does - especially on international flights
Personally many on here wouldn't worry but make sure you do OLCI as early as possible.
Yes if you think an earluer flight is a better option then yes look to change to it but remember (a) there may not be any redemtions on it and (b) there may be change fees to pay as well
BTW is is very useful to give the route as you will get more tailored adviceand there could be specific reasons that could affect flights.
Personally many on here wouldn't worry but make sure you do OLCI as early as possible.
Yes if you think an earluer flight is a better option then yes look to change to it but remember (a) there may not be any redemtions on it and (b) there may be change fees to pay as well
BTW is is very useful to give the route as you will get more tailored adviceand there could be specific reasons that could affect flights.
#4
Join Date: Apr 2017
Programs: BA Silver
Posts: 1,387
Being bumped or downgraded is very rare indeed. Where it becomes much more likely is when there is a plane swap from a large to a smaller plane, or where operational problems force cancellations, and then there just aren't enough seats to go round on the remaining flights.
You can decrease your already-small chances of problems by choosing seats in advance (free for GCH) and checking in at the earliest opportunity. Your GCH status also helps reduce the chance.
You can decrease your already-small chances of problems by choosing seats in advance (free for GCH) and checking in at the earliest opportunity. Your GCH status also helps reduce the chance.
#5
Join Date: Oct 2013
Programs: BA Gold, VS Gold, IHG Platinum, Hilton Gold, Hertz Presidents Circle.
Posts: 1,448
I'm flying to London from the US in a few days for a family event.
I made a rewards booking in WTP and have been monitoring expertflyer with the intention of upgrading if any space became available.
Much to my surprise, the flight actually appears to be more fully booked than any other BA flight I've seen.
As my event is the day after the flight and I'll only be in London for 48 hours, I'm somewhat concerned that the flight will be overbooked and I might not be able to board (as happened to me once long before I had any status).
I'm sure that isn't very likely, but I'm wondering if I should perhaps try to proactively change my flight to ensure I make the party and don't end up stranded in the US.
How often does this happen in practice? Does the fact that this was a rewards booking make it any more likely for me to be "bumped" (or less pressingly downgraded)?
I made a rewards booking in WTP and have been monitoring expertflyer with the intention of upgrading if any space became available.
Much to my surprise, the flight actually appears to be more fully booked than any other BA flight I've seen.
As my event is the day after the flight and I'll only be in London for 48 hours, I'm somewhat concerned that the flight will be overbooked and I might not be able to board (as happened to me once long before I had any status).
I'm sure that isn't very likely, but I'm wondering if I should perhaps try to proactively change my flight to ensure I make the party and don't end up stranded in the US.
How often does this happen in practice? Does the fact that this was a rewards booking make it any more likely for me to be "bumped" (or less pressingly downgraded)?
I don't think the reward booking makes much, if any difference, you could argue the other that your status makes it less likely you'll get bumped. Given you have time on your side I'd leave it to fate.
#6
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Minneapolis: DL DM charter 2.3MM
Programs: A3*Gold, SPG Plat, HyattDiamond, MarriottPP, LHW exAccess, ICI, Raffles Amb, NW PE MM, TWA Gold MM
Posts: 100,409
Can the OP check whether there's been an aircraft or schedule change?
In addition to getting seats NOW if OP hasn't already done this and doing OLCI ASAP, OP should research Plan B, C, D, etc. in advance and carry hard copies of details of alternate flights. Become familiar with BA CoC and EC261 rules as well as USA DOT rules for IDBs, which require solicitation of volunteers.
OP might also want to think in advance whether to accept WT seats on the flight if WT+ isn't available.
In addition to getting seats NOW if OP hasn't already done this and doing OLCI ASAP, OP should research Plan B, C, D, etc. in advance and carry hard copies of details of alternate flights. Become familiar with BA CoC and EC261 rules as well as USA DOT rules for IDBs, which require solicitation of volunteers.
OP might also want to think in advance whether to accept WT seats on the flight if WT+ isn't available.
#7
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Denmark
Programs: TK Elite
Posts: 11,846
The chance of you being invol. bumped from this flight is very close to zero - in particular if you do OLCI. BA is obliged to look for volunteers for VDB and often there will more than enough pax prepared to give up their seats in exchange of cash. There is nothing to worry about - you will be on that flight.
#10
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Gloucestershire
Programs: BA Gold (ex-GGL, maybe future Silver), Hilton Diamond
Posts: 6,199
Honestly, I'd be 100 times more worried about getting stuck in traffic on the way to the airport than being bumped from the flight.
You're gold. That means that just about anybody else will be bumped ahead of you.
The flight has F1 - OK, that's a lot of revenue, but it means they think they can squeeze someone else in somehow.
The odds of being bumped, as a random passenger, are approx. 1 in 12,000 in the US. Add to that the fact that you're gold, and the likelihood of missed connections, volunteers for denied boarding, and simple no-shows, I'd still consider you very safe.
You're gold. That means that just about anybody else will be bumped ahead of you.
The flight has F1 - OK, that's a lot of revenue, but it means they think they can squeeze someone else in somehow.
The odds of being bumped, as a random passenger, are approx. 1 in 12,000 in the US. Add to that the fact that you're gold, and the likelihood of missed connections, volunteers for denied boarding, and simple no-shows, I'd still consider you very safe.
#11
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Minneapolis: DL DM charter 2.3MM
Programs: A3*Gold, SPG Plat, HyattDiamond, MarriottPP, LHW exAccess, ICI, Raffles Amb, NW PE MM, TWA Gold MM
Posts: 100,409
Honestly, I'd be 100 times more worried about getting stuck in traffic on the way to the airport than being bumped from the flight.
You're gold. That means that just about anybody else will be bumped ahead of you.
The flight has F1 - OK, that's a lot of revenue, but it means they think they can squeeze someone else in somehow.
The odds of being bumped, as a random passenger, are approx. 1 in 12,000 in the US. Add to that the fact that you're gold, and the likelihood of missed connections, volunteers for denied boarding, and simple no-shows, I'd still consider you very safe.
You're gold. That means that just about anybody else will be bumped ahead of you.
The flight has F1 - OK, that's a lot of revenue, but it means they think they can squeeze someone else in somehow.
The odds of being bumped, as a random passenger, are approx. 1 in 12,000 in the US. Add to that the fact that you're gold, and the likelihood of missed connections, volunteers for denied boarding, and simple no-shows, I'd still consider you very safe.
#13
Suspended
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: DCA
Programs: UA US CO AA DL FL
Posts: 50,262
The real risks here are weather & mechanical. Denied boarding for oversale is way, way, way down the risk list.
We don't know your routing (most helpful if you would supply), but there may also be alternatives in the event that the very slim risk becomes a reality.
We don't know your routing (most helpful if you would supply), but there may also be alternatives in the event that the very slim risk becomes a reality.
#14
Original Poster
Join Date: Mar 2019
Programs: BAEC Gold
Posts: 10
I'm glad to hear it's not very likely! I guess I probably knew that, but just wanted a bit of reassurance as the only time I've ever been bumped was on the same flight to another family function 5 years ago (which I missed).
For those who were wondering, the flight is 214 BOS-LHR on Oct. 3. It looks like the earlier flight was cancelled - maybe explaining how full it is.
For those who were wondering, the flight is 214 BOS-LHR on Oct. 3. It looks like the earlier flight was cancelled - maybe explaining how full it is.