I think you mean the 2021 balance does not carry into 2022. I've already used my 2021 balance. I need to wait a few days until I have a 2022 balance I assume.

My mistake. Yes, you can have transaction(s) reimbursed in January for your current airline, and still change to another airline later in January.

I just booked a couple of sub-$100 flights and hope to see a credit in the next couple of days. My annual fee hit mid-December, meaning I have until mid-January to pursue a retention offer or cancel to get an AF refund.

Is it too risky to book a couple more flights in early January to maximize the $200 annual benefit prior to contacting retention?

It probably looks more sympathetic if you haven't used all your credits when you call. There's always a slight risk of CC company revenge; personally I think it's fine as long as you've had the card for 12+ months and haven't received a retention that requires keeping it longer.

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