AA Strategy 2023 and Beyond
 

Now that the NEA is dead with AA getting crushed and B6 holding out hope for their merger which looks to be going south. AA has been moot on their next plans in NYC. It appears they will be dropping flights to MCI and IAH. I would think on the heals of the DL SkyPeso massacre they could refocus and take back some ground like AS is doing out west in SEA. I see AA is offering up status matches and I would think AA would be aggressive in markets they split with DL aka LAX and NYC.

With BA now in T8 at JFK and the lounges in a solid place (sans AC) I would think AA would move almost 100% into Term C and allow B to be handled by the international locations. PHL will never be an NYC substitute unless they gut the whole place. Even QR who is big on stating the number of destinations they have would rather say ehhh no PHL let us take over heavy premium traffic from JFK. I think a complete renovation of the AC at JFK, along with the updates to the food vendors (in progress) would be a solid start. Dialing up some of the flights and utilization of their slots, and think about expanding T8 because there is the room, to allow for more international flights. I do hope down the line B6 would consider OW so even though they wont have to revenue share, benefits can be carried across AS/AA/B6 creating some strength. LGA should be strictly O/D to all of the smaller locations and select flights to hubs.

Finally LAX with the consolidation of their flights into T4/5 plus some TBIT, having AS in T6 they have massive potential for both O/D and transfer passengers. Now is the time to strike if there ever was one. Retreating will only prove DL right with their increases to their Pesos program.

Personally, I would prefer that AA not do any status matches similar to AS. Just sayin'.

All the best, James

It's beyond NYC
 

With B6 gone, AA has TWO flights on BOS-LAX right now - 2 - this was 5 earlier in the year on AA Metal

Jan seems to have 4 or 5, but right now some routes are dire - ironically B6 is still running their 5 flights a day as-is

I'm actually doing what the judge couldn't contemplate - flying UA when I need to.

It will be interesting to see what the AA network at LGA looks like after the slot waivers end (whenever that is). Does AA reinstate service or just lease out unused slots?

It's definitely true that AA doesn't seem to be trying at LGA.

The return of LGA-TPA would certainly be welcome, but AA seems unwilling/unable to compete on west coast Florida out of NYC.

Why no love for the JFK AC? It's one of my favorites. I have never found it crowded, the bartenders are all friendly, views are great, and the food is identical to every other AC. It's the premium lounges on the other concourse I have found disappointing. Yes, the F&B are a clear step up from the AC but it's not that great and it has been pretty crowded when I've been there.

IMO people just dislike 1980s-era banker design motif. Personally I prefer it to the 2015-era AC design that is finally going away (I think the short shelf-life of that design speaks for itself.) I also don't get the hate for the JFK AC. Yes, some of the furniture could be replaced. I also had a soft spot for the old LGA AC (if the new one wasn't as nice as it is, I'd seriously miss it.)

It's pretty apparent to me that airlines only want to chase very high cc spenders or high dollar spend on flights. The person that's going to spend $10K a year with the airline (either flights or cc spend, particularly fights) just doesn't seem to have the same appeal. I don't see AA doing widespread status matches. Possibly some selective matches in which AA is getting the type of customer they really want.

My 2c - I primarily fly to SFO/LAX/MIA, and AA has ~5 nonstops to SFO, ~9 to LAX, and ~25 to MIA. So the options from nyc are perfect for me and I'm happy to get upgrades to J sometimes on the transcons. I understand why other NYC flyers are frustrated but I've been really happy with AA this year and moved pretty much all my domestic travel to them.

There are definitely travel patterns that can work from NYC on AA! Unfortunately, it doesn't fit my travel patterns well. I rarely fly transcon, but I fly to West Coast Florida a lot. Connecting at CLT/DCA to get to Florida just isn't appealing when I can get multiple non-stops on other airlines.

I’m one of those NYC based people who have pretty set travel patterns (Mexico/west coast/PHX/SE Asia/and occasionally UK/Europe/and wider latam). So AA/OW works pretty perfect for me. However, on ocasion when I have a trip that strays from this, ooooof, is it hard to fly AA. And not having B6 def hurts too now. Ex: I have to get down to MSY next month, and the AA options are all 1 stops via CLT, ORD, DCA, and laughably even PHL. If there was a non-stop I’d go with an AA, but since there isn’t, decided to go with B6 instead.

I'm just hoping not to see any backsliding in BOS, B6's other focus city. AA had a decent presence there in the 90s and 00s, lots of transcons. Then they cut all Eagle flights and at one point were nearly back to service to "cornerstone" cities (remember those?) on the eve of the US merger. That merger brought a ton more service, plus a much bigger and nicer (post-reno) AC. AA is now nearly tied with DL in passenger share (19% each), behind B6 (30%). Maybe some opportunity to seize some market share and make it to #2?

AA has still been whittling some service at BOS. The loss of BOS-LAX frequency that others have mentioned is pretty shocking, down from 4-5x not long ago to 2x. I got hit with a very undesirable schedule change because of that recently. They do compete with DL, UA, B6 on that route, all of them offering lie-flat seats in business.

BOS isn't great for domestic connections, but it's got international connections on BA, IB, JL, CX, QR, who don't serve (or don't serve much) nearby AA strongholds like PHL, DCA, CLT. The BOS B-C-E airside connector makes these easier than they used to be. And it's a strong O&D market. There are a lot of areas where AA seems unfocused at the moment, but I hope the reaction to the loss of B6 partnership isn't to retreat from BOS like they did 10-15yrs ago.

That just means they haven’t rolled out the schedule changes yet for January. I’m thinking best case scenario is if we can get 3 daily on the route.

Im flying on 12/24 and they’ve cut to just 1 flight on that day.

The worst would be if they brought back the 738, but with everyone else flying flat beds it wouldn’t be competitive at all.

spend money
get status

Additional NYC reductions for Nov/Dec.

No additional route drops besides the aforementioned IAH/MCI, but frequency reductions on tons of routes.

Ihttps://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/230927-aa4q23nyc

If my math serves me right, 28 weekly drop for EWR, 71 for JFK, and 144 for LGA. Total of 243/wk or about 35 a day.