Significant changes to UA Mileage Plus program. Impact for AA?
 

UA MP discussion

Only had a quick read through the changes, but on the face of it this makes AA's jump from $12k to $15k of spend look reasonable. Either AA will take this as an opportunity to grab some current UA top tier folks or do some increases themselves.

IIRC AA followed DL's lead on the increase from $12K to $15K for top tier. If I was to place a bet I'd say AA will copy UA not compete to possibly gain more top tier flyers. I'm starting to see the way airlines are going to monetize the front cabins is to jack up the dollar spend for higher tiers that have unlimited, space available complimentary domestic upgrades. Just simply a different way of getting more $$ for upgrades.

At least with UA you now get credit for other types of spend.

Seems like UA is taking the lead on the conversion from 'mileage based' elite programs to a 'spend based' elite programs.

I think the threshholds are scary high, but (unpopular opinion): I have to admit that I like the simplification.

I think airline programs are bit too complicated (need FT to help figure out what is what), and not quite on topic, they are too top-heavy (large redeemable mile bonuses and rich benefits for the top, but mid and low tiers are nearly worthless in benefits and mile bonuses much more meh;back on topic, that makes the 'consolation prizes' for not spending quite enough for top level feel like a slap in the face. If you can't make top tier, why bother with 'loyalty' at all. My benefits for PlatPro this year have a nominal value of maybe $200 over what a CC gives me anyways).

I think AA and DL will follow because they have all shown that “innovating” is copying what the other ones do. Then they will say they had to make the changes in order to compete with the others. It’s all a crock of ��.

Remember when AA was the last hold out for fare based earning? They even had a marketing campaign based on how they were better because they were different—a mile equals a mile. That lasted a few months before they caved.

The 54 segment requirement is crazy. I requalified for EXP on 17 segments.

Talk about shifting the pool around quite a bit with either the 18K/54 segment or 24K requirement on UA. If AA were to copy it, it's almost like a mini-super EP level or a super basic CK level.

On UA It's 18K/54 segment + 100K EQM right?

I agree. Spend generally equates to profit and that seems to be the key thing nowadays. Hopefully thinning the 1K herd will allow them to up the benefits? Personally, being able to book one premium cabin saver award a year (with a 1 or 2 seat option) would be a good start as an inducement. Not a 100% any day any flight option, but I'm sure they could craft something that would considerably open up the ability to use miles on what has traditionally been a scarce option.

From reading through, it seems that most folks have identified that some relatively low spend on *A partners can generate the PQP's required to retain/achieve status due to the way PQP's are earned on these tickets. Only requirement to fly UA is for the 4 segment annual requirement on UA metal which will be the cheapest possible fare anyone can find.

Winners and losers as with any change, but here's hoping that AA sits back and watches the reaction before taking any steps.

Nope, EQMs (PQMs actually on UA) no longer matter, just dollars and segments (or lots more dollars)

Regards

For 1K there is no EQM requirement at all from 2020.

Either $24k spend OR $18k spend + 54 segments.

Wow. They might as well just change 1k to 100K as in a few years that's what the spend minimum will be.

At any rate I say I look forward to my last EXP year next year as sure as S Parker will change this spend threshold minimums. Game over for me. It was a nice ride while it lasted.

Are we sure it will thin? AU execs have said they expect elite ranks to expand, not thin, although they did not address specific tiers.

There are a lot of 100K flyers that will now leave UA and come to AA and DL.

Great.

Frequent customers, are not necessarily good ones.

It will be interesting to see DL and AAs retort.

Why?

IIRC, UA phrased it that more people will have status than today, but the general impression on the UA thread is that 1K numbers will drop given the increased spend thresholds.

EQDs of $24K? Yes it will thin out at the top. But if I'm reading that chart all levels are going up. Essentially $15K for PP would be the old EXP level?

I forgot to add a :rolleyes:

Just to be clear, this isn't constrained to 1K, The concept of EQMs (again PQMs on UA) go away completely in the elite status scheme, for all levels

Regards

I got the UA email this morning. I might be in the minority, but I would love it if AA follows suit with something similar. I've always found it crazy that airlines reward people based on mileage. Why is flying PHL-LHR for $500 rewarded exponentially more than flying PHL-BNA for $1000? Surely AA is making far more money on the latter.

Admittedly, I have a tinted view of this as a high-frequency, high-fare, primarily short-hop flyer. I'll have enough EQDs for ExPlat but will probably only make Plat due to low EQMs. But I guarantee I am far more profitable to AA than many ExPlats.

I have to say that the segments bit seems odd to me, but then again I don't fly that many segments. Surely there should be more of a tradeoff between segments and dollars.

Unpopular opinion: I'm a fan of the change. Miles are easier to game than pure spend. However it does take the "flier" out of "frequent flier program" since someone can spend $25k on three international business trips, attain top tier status and then never fly again

Agree completely. The current system incentivizes people to travel between destinations using the least efficient route possible. Or worse, making mileage run trips with no purpose beyond accruing EQMs. This is a waste of time and resources.

Yeah, but if they never fly again, then who cares that they are 1K.

I'm with you on this. I went free agent a few years back, but continue to primarily fly high-fare American Eagle flights with AA. This year I'll end up with 4-5K EQDs, but less than 10k EQM.

And the segment threshold does what exactly?
If anything that new ua system encourages most ppl to force connections on every trip to maximise status every year...
Lax-sfo-pvg vs nonstop served very little purpose as mileage gains were minimal but now it is twice as many segments and potentially a huge cut in eqd requirement... utter nonsense...

This was my takeaway too - you are now incentivizing people to connect. Lol - almost turns United into Southwest

When you look at the thresholds to allow for more segments versus all dollars, you can imagine the UA team just moving the threshold around until they were comfortable with the level of elites and spend they actually represent (when considering all of the partner ticketing "loopholes"). I kind of think UA went conservatively hard/high for their first year on this program. I could easily see them having promos for extra PQPs if they need to make adjustments, but it will definitely improve the experience for higher tiers I think.

It does seem to indicate that if AA and DL want to make a change, they would need to announce something in the next few months for 2020 qualifying year. If DL doesn't copy, I would be impressed. It does seem they have benefitted a lot in this past quarter in certain markets. Unless there is some major drag happening on them from a mileage program perspective, I am unsure they want to do a tweak. The idea that people will jump over to other programs because of this change is interesting, but doesn't seem so practical anymore. If AA and DL are worried, I might just make matching programs a bit harder, but I doubt that and we will see plenty of free challenges for Plat/Plat Pro/EXP.

I agree with you. In my view, the most sensible system would based on spend only (perhaps with a multiplier for J/F fares), ignoring both segments and miles. That would be a decent proxy for how "valuable" you are as a customer. This is essentially what Southwest and Amtrak do.

I was viewing the UA model as at least a step in the right direction.

Turns UA into USdbaAA. The crazy routings I’m offered now days for the cheapest fare are asinine, but hey routing everyone through PHX and CLT on crappy old US metal is super efficient.

A multiplier for non-economy fares...such a novel idea. AA does that now.

How many flyers would buy 2 expensive $12K J fares (or the like) and say "I've got my EXP status now." Probably very few and far in between and meaningless within the stats. Very high probability that some that just spend $24K+ with your airline did it flying multiple times. The issue with also an EQM kicker is that some high spend flyers are buying expensive tickets on short routes. Think of someone buying 2 or more last minute tickets weekly on the DCA/LGA shuttle with some other International J flights thrown in. They might make the $24K EQDs but not make the 100K EQMs.

I think y'all are missing that low dollar folks on UA can benefit because the PQD component now includes non 016 flights (i.e. non UA flight nos.) (i.e. Singapore marketed and operated, etc.) The divisor is 5 or 6. Those who want to do it on mileage can if very strategic and come out under 9K (I.e. flying NYC to SIN) a a few times in PE or the like. The 24K number is steep but not quite as steep as you might think (nor the 18K number for that part).

Safe Travels

I am likely to change. I fly ORD to LHR almost monthly. With a few smaller trips and one short mile run, i will end with 16000 in spend and 100,000 miles of credit on 26 segments. Nowhere near 1K status under the changes. United has completely devalued by international spend by requiring 56 segments and 18K or 24K without a segment number. I am pretty sure someone else will provide me greater value to my loyalty.

Personally id welcome this change. I’m at 65k eqm but over $17k in spend. I’m going to struggle to hit 100k eqm and May miss exp this year

Right, I guess what I am suggesting is to essentially use the current EQD determination as the sole basis for elite status. Perhaps include fee spend as well.

UA was never an airline I aspired to fly. Honestly think I only flew them during IRROPS when USAir was *A. Haven’t even established a MPlus account despite having status privileges via Marriott status.

Seriously considering UA now as with my flying patterns 1K is very attainable versus naturally obtaining PLT on AA.

That's still a strict requirement. For EWR - SIN it would take ~8 RT in PE to achieve (or 7 plus 4 segments in UA), which is still way harder to MR.

The program is quite similar to CX MPC now which encourages segments over distance.

Based on those numbers under UA’s new system you still wouldn’t qualify for top tier. So why exactly would you welcome a change that doesn’t benefit you?

Of course AA will follow UA. They intend to win the race to the bottom.