Price fluctuations, when to book AA
Apr 21, 2018, 2:15 pm
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Chicago area
Posts: 207
Price fluctuations, when to book AA
We are looking for airfare to Beijing in late Sept. out of ORD for about two weeks. Today I checked AA and was stunned to see a hefty price drop for biz class, about $4800.00 for two. The last time I looked, about perhaps 6 weeks ago it was nearly double that. I checked this price thru there website and airline matrix so its legit.
So the big question is what gives with this? Is it a flash sale, will it stay this way? Also saw that UAL dropped from about nearly 9k for two to about 5k for two. Any ideas why?
Thank you.
So the big question is what gives with this? Is it a flash sale, will it stay this way? Also saw that UAL dropped from about nearly 9k for two to about 5k for two. Any ideas why?
Thank you.
Apr 21, 2018, 2:24 pm
#2
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 23,057
Airlines generally don't want their fares to be too predictable for understandable reasons, so I wouldn't really count on any particular pattern. There are a number of inputs for these fare decisions relating to competition and demand. From the fare rules, this does not appear to be a "flash" sale, but rather a seasonal discounted rate. Here are some details from the rules --
Fare Code -- IKX03BN1
SEASONALITY - PERMITTED 01MAY18 THROUGH 30SEP18 ON THE OUTBOUND TRANSPACIFIC SECTOR.
DAY/TIME - PERMITTED MON THROUGH THU ON EACH TRANSPACIFIC SECTOR.
MINIMUM STAY - TRAVEL FROM INBOUND TRANSPACIFIC SECTOR MUST COMMENCE NO EARLIER THAN 3 DAYS AFTER DEPARTURE OF THE OUTBOUND TRANSPACIFIC SECTOR.
Both DL and UA have similar discounted J fares out of CHI, but they run through the end of October, instead of September. There's similar J discounting going on out of BOS to PEK (fares are actually about $200 less than CHI).
Fare Code -- IKX03BN1
SEASONALITY - PERMITTED 01MAY18 THROUGH 30SEP18 ON THE OUTBOUND TRANSPACIFIC SECTOR.
DAY/TIME - PERMITTED MON THROUGH THU ON EACH TRANSPACIFIC SECTOR.
MINIMUM STAY - TRAVEL FROM INBOUND TRANSPACIFIC SECTOR MUST COMMENCE NO EARLIER THAN 3 DAYS AFTER DEPARTURE OF THE OUTBOUND TRANSPACIFIC SECTOR.
Both DL and UA have similar discounted J fares out of CHI, but they run through the end of October, instead of September. There's similar J discounting going on out of BOS to PEK (fares are actually about $200 less than CHI).
Last edited by xliioper; Apr 21, 2018 at 2:34 pm
Apr 21, 2018, 3:24 pm
#3
Moderator: American AAdvantage
Join Date: May 2000
Location: NorCal - SMF area
Programs: AA LT Plat; HH LT Diamond, Maître-plongeur des Muccis
Posts: 62,948
Pricing is all about revenue management and optimization of revenue. Someums its crazy, but it’s about demand. And seasonal fluctuations. And chicken guts...
Was looking at SMF-DFW-KEF in J, one way (going to catch a small ship to NYC via Greenland, Labrador, etc.), and AA wants over $10,000 per person! Obviously, there are plenty of cheaper options, including throw-away ticketing. Or, in our case, miles and $11.20 fees and taxes.
Was looking at SMF-DFW-KEF in J, one way (going to catch a small ship to NYC via Greenland, Labrador, etc.), and AA wants over $10,000 per person! Obviously, there are plenty of cheaper options, including throw-away ticketing. Or, in our case, miles and $11.20 fees and taxes.
Apr 22, 2018, 9:22 am
#6
Moderator: American AAdvantage
Join Date: May 2000
Location: NorCal - SMF area
Programs: AA LT Plat; HH LT Diamond, Maître-plongeur des Muccis
Posts: 62,948
Buy low, sell high... if you see fares at historical lows, I’d not wait too long..
Last edited by JDiver; Apr 22, 2018 at 9:41 am
Apr 22, 2018, 9:40 am
#7
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Brighton. UK
Programs: BA Gold / VS /IHG Diamond & Ambassador
Posts: 14,196
you could always look at holding the fare https://www.aa.com/i18n/plan-travel/...eservation.jsp
Apr 22, 2018, 1:36 pm
#8
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: NYC
Posts: 27,234
At least you have 24 hours to cancel...
$2400 r/t pp to Asia is a very good deal. Heck, these days it's a decent deal from the east coast to Europe.
Apr 22, 2018, 5:02 pm
#9
Join Date: Dec 2017
Posts: 1,107
I'd kill to find a $2400 J ticket to EU. Looking in December and cheapest I've seen so far is ~$3200. (Leave on a Tues/Wed, return on the Sunday 12 days later. $2400 would be great, even if positioning flights were needed.
Apr 22, 2018, 5:21 pm
#10
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Los Angeles
Programs: AA LT Gold
Posts: 3,645
You will need "CANCEL FOR ANY REASON" coverage (different to Trip Cancellation and Trip interruption coverage). A policy with Cancel for Any Reason coverage for your trip will probably be $200 per person if not more and then you will typically get back only %75 of the cost.
Just something to keep in mind.
Just something to keep in mind.
Apr 23, 2018, 1:15 pm
#12
Moderator: American AAdvantage
Join Date: May 2000
Location: NorCal - SMF area
Programs: AA LT Plat; HH LT Diamond, Maître-plongeur des Muccis
Posts: 62,948
It’s all very variable to us, though I’m sure it makes sense to the Revenue Management Department.
In February, we booked a cruise ending in Phillipsburg, Sint Maarten December 1. I immediately purchased discounted I class fares to SFO at about $1,000 per person. The schedule got rearranged, so I consulted ExpertFlyer prior to calling AA. The fares are now over $1,500 and I snatched the last two seats on an afternoon flight.
In many cases I’ve waited to book N.A. - Caribbean - C. America flights a couple of months out - but it depends on season (Summer to Iceland, Christmas or Easter in the Americas, Carnaval, etc.) predicted demand (events, spring break, major cruise terminal on arrival / departure day, etc.)
In February, we booked a cruise ending in Phillipsburg, Sint Maarten December 1. I immediately purchased discounted I class fares to SFO at about $1,000 per person. The schedule got rearranged, so I consulted ExpertFlyer prior to calling AA. The fares are now over $1,500 and I snatched the last two seats on an afternoon flight.
In many cases I’ve waited to book N.A. - Caribbean - C. America flights a couple of months out - but it depends on season (Summer to Iceland, Christmas or Easter in the Americas, Carnaval, etc.) predicted demand (events, spring break, major cruise terminal on arrival / departure day, etc.)
Apr 26, 2018, 11:52 am
#13
Original Poster
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Chicago area
Posts: 207
Thanks again for all the help. I did book with a 7 day fare lock for about $31.00. The prices are inching up so I jumped on it. I got UAL which is my ff plan for about $5261.00 total for two and this represents a $230.00 price increase so best to get it. It is their polaris service and the times are quite good, each leaving around noon, NS flights. Thanks for all the help gentlemen!
May 22, 2018, 8:45 pm
#15
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Sun Prairie, WI
Programs: AA Executive Platinum, HH Diamond, National Executive
Posts: 1,786
Curious if anyone has any feedback on a LAX to MEL AA codeshare on Qantas. Yesterday I was looking at a J round trip for around $6500 and today it’s up to $7400. Do you expect this to be he new price going forward or is it one of those strange price fluctuations that are sometimes out there.
Thanks.
Thanks.