How common are flights with zero cleared upgrades?
Feb 13, 2018, 2:32 am
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Jun 2011
Programs: United Premier Platinum
Posts: 638
How common are flights with zero cleared upgrades?
Interested in getting some crowdsourced estimates for how many flights you fly that end up with zero upgrades cleared from the airport list (clearing prior to T24 doesn’t count). Also, what types of flights are most likely to go without someone clearing?
I would say I mainly fly a) transpacs at peak times, and b) domestic flights to/from spoke airports in the AA network.
For category a, upwards of 50% of the flights go without anyone clearing from the airport. On the other hand, for the domestics I fly I feel at least one person clears about 80% of the time.
What have others noticed?
I would say I mainly fly a) transpacs at peak times, and b) domestic flights to/from spoke airports in the AA network.
For category a, upwards of 50% of the flights go without anyone clearing from the airport. On the other hand, for the domestics I fly I feel at least one person clears about 80% of the time.
What have others noticed?
Feb 13, 2018, 3:28 am
#2
Join Date: May 2000
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I would say almost anything xxx-LHR on Sunday (and most days). This is a flight that a lot of business people pay for J.
Also
ORD-SFO, SFO-ORD are near impossible to upgrade on.
Also
ORD-SFO, SFO-ORD are near impossible to upgrade on.
Feb 13, 2018, 3:57 am
#4
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I didn't say harder. It's just one of those flights where a lot of people pay for F and there tends to be a lot of CK's on the flight. Also if you look at the frequency there aren't really many AA flights (compared to UA). My gut feel is that its a lot of bankers and lawyers that are filling the F cabin.
Feb 13, 2018, 7:09 am
#5
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: CUR
Posts: 2,170
Any A319 flight.
I disagree with the poster above regarding LHR flights, though. Based solely on personal experience (and of course, the plural of anecdote is not data), as an EXP I've never missed an upgrade on MIA/JFK/CLT/DFW-LHR vv.
I disagree with the poster above regarding LHR flights, though. Based solely on personal experience (and of course, the plural of anecdote is not data), as an EXP I've never missed an upgrade on MIA/JFK/CLT/DFW-LHR vv.
Feb 13, 2018, 7:26 am
#6
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This. One of my most regular routes is an A319, I'm always booked into F anyways but I often see the seatmap fully booked a week out.
Then you even get randoms, NYC-MCO is another regular route of mine. I've had the F cabin fully booked 4 months out on some trips, yet when I flew last week F was left with empty seats.
I think F just seems to sell better nowadays then when I first started flying AA domestically with any regularity in 2005/2006. In the last few months I've had fully booked cabins two months from departure several times.
Then you even get randoms, NYC-MCO is another regular route of mine. I've had the F cabin fully booked 4 months out on some trips, yet when I flew last week F was left with empty seats.
I think F just seems to sell better nowadays then when I first started flying AA domestically with any regularity in 2005/2006. In the last few months I've had fully booked cabins two months from departure several times.
Feb 13, 2018, 7:31 am
#7
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I would expect spoke to hub to be worse than hub to spoke because the latter direction will have more missed connections, other things equal.
Feb 13, 2018, 7:40 am
#8
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You're right. I shouldn't generalize all of US to LHR flights. From my limited personal experience, on all of the recent ORD-LHR flights on a Sunday night Business Class has been full (with no gate upgrades) while Coach has been between 40-70% full.
Feb 13, 2018, 7:45 am
#9
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It is hard to say... I mean, occasionally you see a flight with no gate upgrades, but how do you tell if a flight had no upgrades at all?
Feb 13, 2018, 8:09 am
#10
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Of course, (1) system auto-upgrades still happen until, I think T-4 hours, and (2) not sure why this is a relevant metric at all.
Feb 13, 2018, 8:43 am
#11
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I'm not sure if it is still the case, but in the pre-AA days, the toughest upgrades on US seemed to be between PHX and PHL, and to some extent PHX and CLT. This was especially true for flights timed to connect to/from TA flights. Many of the TA flights arrived at PHL within 1-2 hours. So if you were flying PHL-PHX at 5pm, you'd pretty much be out of luck, as many pax who bought Envoy for the TA portion were put in F for the domestic portion.
Feb 13, 2018, 8:44 am
#12
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This. One of my most regular routes is an A319, I'm always booked into F anyways but I often see the seatmap fully booked a week out.
Then you even get randoms, NYC-MCO is another regular route of mine. I've had the F cabin fully booked 4 months out on some trips, yet when I flew last week F was left with empty seats.
I think F just seems to sell better nowadays then when I first started flying AA domestically with any regularity in 2005/2006. In the last few months I've had fully booked cabins two months from departure several times.
Then you even get randoms, NYC-MCO is another regular route of mine. I've had the F cabin fully booked 4 months out on some trips, yet when I flew last week F was left with empty seats.
I think F just seems to sell better nowadays then when I first started flying AA domestically with any regularity in 2005/2006. In the last few months I've had fully booked cabins two months from departure several times.
Feb 13, 2018, 9:09 am
#13
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: RDU
Posts: 2,264
I'm just going to make some partially educated, totally random guesses...
For domestic flights with a first class cabin (or the few 3-cabin flights), 85% include at least 1 upgrade.
40% of flights include an upgrade more than 24 hours out (not what OP was asking)
70% include an upgrade at T minus 24 (including serious battlefield as door is about to close).
Even with cabins which appear fully booked at T minus 24, I would guess someone winds up getting upgraded 30-40% of the time.
For domestic flights with a first class cabin (or the few 3-cabin flights), 85% include at least 1 upgrade.
40% of flights include an upgrade more than 24 hours out (not what OP was asking)
70% include an upgrade at T minus 24 (including serious battlefield as door is about to close).
Even with cabins which appear fully booked at T minus 24, I would guess someone winds up getting upgraded 30-40% of the time.
Feb 13, 2018, 9:20 am
#14
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Not sure if it's still true, but in the pmAA days DFW-SFO and DFW-SEA were among the hardest routes to get upgrades. I also heard DFW-HKG-DFW is one of the hardest, if not the hardest, international flight to upgrade.
I once was on MIA-AUS that had no gate upgrades. Some Hawaii flights sell out the F cabin several weeks out, especially in peak season.
I agree that any A319 flight has high chance of no gate upgrades. Also any former 24F 757 flight that now is operated by 16F 738 or A321 could have a full F before gate control.
I once was on MIA-AUS that had no gate upgrades. Some Hawaii flights sell out the F cabin several weeks out, especially in peak season.
I agree that any A319 flight has high chance of no gate upgrades. Also any former 24F 757 flight that now is operated by 16F 738 or A321 could have a full F before gate control.
Feb 13, 2018, 9:25 am
#15
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F fares are a LOT lower than they were a decade ago. The airlines (all of them) are selling more F seats, but at lower prices. Has it been accretive to overall revenues? I suppose, but probably not a ton. DL has a goal to sell something like 85% of domestic FC seats. It's kind of asinine if you ask me, because if you drop the fares low enough you could easily sell 100%.