Winter Storm - NYC area
 

I just paid for a ticket (LAX-JFK) in I class, without realizing there was an upcoming blizzard in NYC.

When will AA issue a travel advisory? This is a meeting that involves multiple parties, so needs to be scheduled a bit in advance. I called the ExP desk and one rep said it should be some time today (though the days almost over now).

Being that I live in San Diego, I never worry about weather . :o

The track and intensity of the storm, and how badly (or not) it will impact cities up and down the east coast from BOS - NYC - PHL - WAS is very up in the air right now. I am certain a travel advisory will be issued related to this storm, but would not expect it for a couple of days yet, as the forecast firms up. And should the storm look like it will track far enough south, it is possible cities like NYC may get left out of the advisory. But at this point, all of us , including the meteorologists, can only make educated guesses.

Is this the winter storm that's supposed to hit NYC this weekend? I'm in the same boat but am so far cautiously optimistic about its track.

As of this writing, the forecast models are in pretty good agreement that there will be a storm. Many are indicating at least the possibility of big snows, but it's simply too early to determine how much or where. This appears to be a classic winter storm setup in the VA-DC-PHL-NYC area where temps will be near freezing, which means that a difference in storm track 100 miles to the west or east could be the difference between a foot of snow and next to nothing in the cities in this region. Further inland and at higher elevations, all snow is always more likely, but for coastal storms, they have to toss moisture further inland as well, which is how the big cities can get a big snowfall if they're cold enough while places such as Pittsburgh may be colder but get far less.

Two main factors will affect whether NYC gets more snow: where the rain/snow line sets up and how far away the storm passes. Some models are indicating the maximum precip will be over the Virginia area with decreasing snowfall amounts as you go north, even if it happens to be an all-snow event. But it's really, really hard to forecast snowfall amounts on Tuesday evening for an event that is mainly a Friday PM/Saturday storm.

Living in PHL and seeing this many times, personally, I wouldn't do anything to reservations before Wednesday night or Thursday morning, and I would think AA may issue travel waivers in that rough timeframe assuming we're still trending towards a larger snow event. If the forecast models trend towards a big snow and are in general agreement, I would consider changing plans only at that point. Often the forecasts are decent, but sometimes they've been complete busts, and 3-4 days out they're more likely to be a bust than within 36 hours of the start.

Agreed. We are days away from seeing anything. I'd expect an advisory only after the national weather service confirms something.

Based on the way AA has operated in the past, expect it no sooner than 12 hours in advance of any possible issue...

Yes
Im just hoping I can plan accordingly.
AA has been proactive with weather lately, so I hope they make a decision soon.

Supposed to fly to NY.c on Saturday for a DO. Hoping they issue a waiver so I can change to Friday. My connection is through CLT which currently is predicted to get ice.

The weather reports on NY TV this morning seem to indicate that PHL will be hit with about a foot (or more) in the American and European models. The models for NY provide a different forecast for NYC but not more than a foot (and more likely 6 inches). In one of the models, the further you go out on to Long Island the more likely it will be a mix.

Still too early for advisories.

I disagree. They know there is something coming. Whether it be 4 inches or 12 inches they know there will be disruptions. If people want to go today or tomorrow, what's the harm? Get them cleared from the phone lines and the airport now before the real mess starts and have them use inventory that is open now. I don't get the logic.

It's not so much the snow I'm worried about (JFK can handle it) it's the wind.

Every forecast and model I've seen shows high winds in NYC on Saturday. Sustains of 25-30mph with gusts up to 40. Pretty sure that's enough to cancel my 8AM Saturday flight, and I'd love the chance to change it before all the Friday flights fill up.

I'm actually surprised after the models last night agreed that a fairly major storm will hit DC starting between 10am to 2pm that they didn't issue an advisory.

Looks like I'll be staying the weekend somewhere :(

Exactly my point. Just issue the advisory to alleviate some congestion (airport and phone) down the line.

I wish they would too. I looked what it would cost to change and there are lots of options for me Friday if I'm willing to pay $270 to change right now. But I know those options will slide away the longer they wait to issue a waiver.

Of course I'm scheduled to connect in Charlotte to get to NY, which is supposed to get ice Friday and then snow Saturday.

A friend has a one way award ticket into IAD this weekend. If AA issues a weather advisory that includes IAD can she call in to cancel the trip and redeposit the miles without fee?