I remain hopeful that the merged airline will completely abandon the AA system and use US Airways -- it's much easier to understand and implement and frankly it's much more controllable by the airline in terms of capacity and holding for paid FC customers. I've tried to understand AA's system and I'm definitely convinced US's system is better, at least in terms of upgrades (but also in terms of obtaining status). US pricing is also much more simplified. Simple is better, businesses are starting to figure that out. I think the management will recognize this, too -- AA went bankrupt for a reason, and inefficiency of staff was certainly part of that reason. Their system is much more confusing and costly to implement.

It's also significant to note that United Continental studied all this too, and they ended up with a system much more like US than AA.

I also remain hopeful the program will lean towards US rather than AA. Upgrades 20% of the time will mean a huge downgrade for pretty much all of US DM members, except for Silvers. (Yes, I know there are arguments about how you really get upgraded more, but I don't understand how that works when you get 2k worth of stickers for every 10k worth of flights)

I think when people talk about higher upgrade rates than 20%, they mean successful attempts to use their stickers. Since you're not automatically eligible for an upgrade on all your flights, you need to indicate when you want to try for the upgrade. The success rates we hear about are % of the time that someone puts in to use their stickers and actually gets the upgrade to clear. But they still only earn stickers at a rate of 20% of miles flown, and could purchase stickers above that.

I agree that UDU's are better in theory for lower-level elites. But with an elite base the size of AA, let alone the combined US/AA, there just aren't enough seats in FC for US-SP/AA-G to have a fighting chance.

Whether they keep the stickers or not, US FF's at all levels are unfortunately going to experience lower upgrade rates than they've gotten used to. It was almost a too-good-to-be-true situation on US because thier passenger demographic was disproportionately leisure travelers over business travelers, at least in comparison to the other legacies. There just wasn't as much competition for FC - either paid, award or upgrade - as there is at AA/UA/DL. That's just the reality of it... sadly.

This is hyperbole. AA went into bankruptcy protection for many reasons, not the least of which was their costs were too high. Since entering BK, AA has thrived and one of the reasons is that they have done an excellent job of attracting premium passangers.

Partially incorrect. PMUA implemented unlimited domestic upgrades in March of 2010 (I was flying through IAD on the first day). They may have collaborated with CO on this aspect of their program as a predecessor to their merger. But, until a company representative (or even a person with second-hand knowledge) tells us so, everything we say is speculation.

I hope this is not true :eek: (but I figured I'll throw it in anyway)..:D

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo....main/5951924/

Whatever was on your mystery link has been removed, so I guess _____ wasn't true...

Exactly right. e500 Stickers clear more than 2/10 of the time. Around 60% for Platinums and around 35% for Golds. EXPs who neither earn nor redeem stickers for their own flights, clear around 90%+ with complimentary upgrades.

The earning rate will be higher than 2/10 also -- you earn stickers for domestic premium class and international travel, although stickers are not redeemable for these flights. If you only travel domestically and in paid coach, then you will probably need to buy stickers from time to time.

Finally, there are alternate upgrade instruments for people who run out of stickers and don't want to buy more -- BXP1s, Mileage upgrades, SWUs.

The AA upgrade system has developed over many years and is, I would estimate, revenue neutral to AA (cost of the domestic F cabin versus sticker revenue plus paid F revenue). Replacing the system with UDUs would affect the bottom line, which is why I believe the new AA will maintain the e500 system.

AA also has a significant chunk of paid F travelers domestically (including elites), and changing the e500 equation would throw the revenue balance out of whack. I just cannot see AA going to UDU for all elites.

I agree with you on this. Frankly, having lived in both the complimentary for everyone with status tiers and AA's system, I really prefer AA's process. Yes it does suck if you don't have EXP, but it becomes that much of a sweeter benefit when you reach that level.

Everyone likes a free pony (UDU/CPU/whatever); however, I would prefer to get the free racehorse that could allow me to win big when betting the "ponies" (e500 ticket) ...

The other aspect that makes it better is that there is revenue associated with "cheaper" upgrades. It makes it harder for CEO's like $mi$ek to devalue a benefit ...

+-ADT

I always preferred free UDU myself (been a PMUA 1P and lower tier AA elite in my time). The crappiest FC seat is better than the best Coach seat. YMMV;)

Safe Travels

It was about AA possibly adding a 4th tier.

That seems a virtual certainty if the new AA uses "the market", and IIRC PMUS was the first to go to the four tiers (think it predated DL).

Safe Travels

Excellent! "No wonder AA was in bankruptcy." :D

AA filed for Ch 11 primarily because its pilots and FAs refused to sign concessionary contracts to bring AA's labor costs in line with UA and DL. It had nothing to do with the challenging nature of the AA frequent flier program or the upgrade scheme.

"Inefficiency of staff"?

AA's pilots and FAs enjoyed inefficient contracts (too many paid hours that weren't flight hours) but pilots and FAs have nothing to do with administering the frequent flier program.

So you're arguing that because some find the AA frequent flier program "confusing," then it is obviously more "costly to implement?" I don't follow that logic. Until 2008, AA was the largest airline in the world and its frequent fliers didn't seem to have much difficulty with the frequent flier program or the upgrade scheme.

AA has eaten UA's lunch since March 3, 2012, for various reasons. But given UA's subpar financial performance (relative to AA) since that date, I wouldn't argue that Parker should emulate UA in any way, especially when it comes to frequent flier program changes.

Its certainly not a "virtual certainty" at all. If anything Parker & Co. (hopefully) know not to "ruffle" too many feathers with FF's and loyal AA fliers. That would actually keep the current 3-tier system intact.

I'm hoping that Parker has seen and will be able to take advantage of the UA/CO/DL fliers who have left those aforementioned carriers to AA.

My guess is while we'll probably see a devaluation sometime by 2015, AA will keep the 3-tier system (I'm giving it a 70% odds).

CO had UDUs long before any discussions with UA -- indeed, they used to have reciprocal UDUs with NW.

It's not just UA, though. Every US legacy carrier besides AA has adopted UDUs, including those who merged into other carriers. CO, NW, UA, DL, US -- not to mention AS and HP. I find it really hard to believe that all of those airlines would have done so if they did not feel it was useful to their bottom line.

I realize many people have great affection for AA's system, and I think the customer-side arguments in favor of it are somewhat convincing. But I don't think the evidence from the rest of the industry backs up the contention that it's a huge asset to AA's bottom line.