Back to HKG for a minute, there's already lots of competition, both in alliance and out, at the traditional gateways. Why wouldn't AA consider DFW, for example, where there may well be a large market but no nonstops? According to Boeing, the 773-ER is capable.

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I've wondered this, too. Perhaps they feel the 2x daily NRT adequately covers most Asian travel out of DFW?

But then again, rather than flying DFW-SYD themselves, they got Qantas to do it.

If there are 200 to 300 daily passengers to HKG from DFW and/or for which DFW is the logical connection, and AA can get route authority, then perhaps they'll give it a go.

Educate me

Can anyone who knows about this stuff let us have an idea how hard this part may be and, if it's even possible, how long the process would be? Thanks.

It was reported a couple of years ago or so that AA was considering filing for a DFW-PEK route but that the pilot's union had nixed it in advance because it was around 15 minutes longer than their maximum flight time. DFW-HKG is roughly 1150 miles further than DFW-PEK. Has something changed in the new pilot's contract that would allow AA to fly DFW-HKG?

Good question - I have no idea.

AA went to war with the pilots, in part, to eliminate contractual limits on duty day, and today, AA is free to schedule any flight it wants, within FAA duty day limits. If the plane can fly there nonstop, then AA can unilaterally (w/o pilot consent) begin the route.

Folks are just gonna have to get over the DFW-HKG thing. not much O&D there and there are better options so it's just not high on the list.

Thanks. I did not know that.

And folks said the exact same thing about the QF DFW-SYD flight when it started at 5 times a week. Then it went to daily. ExpertFlyer frequently shows it at or near sold out (like tonight).

I believe that you don't need "authority" to fly US-HKG, you just need the planes, the slots and the demand.

Neither you nor I know O&D for HKG but we do have to add in SE feeder flights into DFW and onward travel to KUL; SIN; BKK; Shenzin; etc.

It was certainly good for Delta; I'm not convinced it was such a good deal for US (or a combined US-AA). Once the merger occurs, AA-US will have only about 30% of the LGA slots, compared to DL's 50% share. And after the merger, AA-US will have about 50% of the DCA slots, about the same as US has right now. The combined AA-US will have to relinquish DCA slots roughly equal to AA's current holdings (as the government signalled in the DL-US transaction that 50% was about as high as they'd allow at LGA and DCA).

DL has figured out how to fill more of its new flights from LGA - shame Parker's US couldn't figure out how to do the same.

So everyone agrees that AA is the smallest carrier to Asia and yet because Oneworld doesn't have a mainland Chinese feeder airline, AA shouldn't bother trying to grow in Asia? The western world should just be glad we still have the UA-DL duopoly? Sorry, I'm not buying. Yes, if you're in China and you want to city-hop, Oneworld doesn't have a partner on which you can earn miles. Since those trips are likely an infintesimal part of most business travel profiles, I'd be willing to bet that AA's lack of a China partner is inconsequential.

I apologize; earlier we were discussing AA's weaknesses and what AA was lacking - so I didn't put it together that you were talking about what US-AA should do after the merger. Sure, the combined airline should do what it takes to cement the fortress positions it currently has.

Ahh, Jamie Baker at JP Morgan. Baker is the analyst who apologized to his clients days after the AA Ch 11 filing by telling them "We were wrong," as Baker had told them just days earlier that he didn't see a Ch 11 filing in the near future.

http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/11/2...out-liquidity/

Whoops. Having missed the signs that AA was preparing to file Ch 11 (and told his clients a filing was highly unlikely, Baker went on to incorrectly predict that AA would shrink by about 10% while in Ch 11:

http://articles.marketwatch.com/2011...st-jamie-baker

Jamie Baker is a stock analyst - and I'm not sure how that makes him qualified to opine that AA should abandon CHI to UA and WN. I doubt it influenced his statements, but I have to point out that Chase and UA have a long-standing and mutually beneficial relationship, and AA's departure from CHI would no doubt benefit UA (and thus, Chase). I'm certain that if a Citi analyst said that UA and DL should scale back in NYC and leave the flying to AA, someone would point out the obvious as well . . .

Maybe you're right - I have no way of knowing how important US is to Oneworld or Star.

That makes US sound like a lateral partner who bills $4 million a year yet tells you during the interview that most of his clients won't follow him if he joins your firm. If he can't bring that book of business with him, why would you want him?

As to US' position in Star, US isn't part of the immunized joint venture across the Atlantic and thus must compete with UA and LH for transatlantic business. If US was so valuable to Star, then why hasn't Star invited US to join the joint venture?

Difficult to counter that subjective opinion about alliance benefits. Again, it sounds like you're saying that US has a lot of business from UA customers and those who love Star Alliance. If/when US and AA merge, the combined airline will remain in Oneworld and the Star affiliation will be history. If a lot of passengers bolt because of that, then it wasn't US that was the attraction, it was Star.

DFWHKG is around 20 people per day in each direction.

I think we will see HKG connected to both DFW and MIA (MIAHKG is actually the largest Southeast U.S.-Hong Kong market) within five years.