Finally, a true competitor to Alaska transcon F
Jan 14, 2019, 10:14 am
#61
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,639
WN's longest flight, BWI-OAK, doesn't compete with any of the US3, B6, or AS. WN can't compete on most transcons, so they don't offer them. They don't fly any route where another airline offers a lie-flat service, but AS does. Plus, WN is way more concerned about NK, especially at BWI.
EWR-OAK 2,549 mi
Jan 14, 2019, 11:29 am
#62
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: SFO
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I agree that going lie-flat probably won't work out well for AS. If anything I'd go the opposite direction to be more asymmetric (like WN, but not as extreme). With the same spacing that UA is using on the 78J, AS could easily fit those seats in a 2-3 config in the A320 cabin. Even better would be 2-2 in an A220 cabin. In either case they could price at about half the cost of a lie-flat and still offer a product that, for daytime flights, would not be that much worse.
Jan 14, 2019, 11:40 am
#63
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But like WN, AS's future is one where transcons make up a very small share of ASMs. They'll just keeping pounding SFO-California + Las Vegas with capacity and building up PAE-West Coast long before they'll do something about the front of the plane on their thin transcon schedule.
Also, PAE is pretty hard capped for growth at two gates. That's by design, much like DAL. It will help with taking pressure off SEA for some things, but it's not meant to be a real alternate.
Presumably that won't last forever once folks figure it out and AS acquires more elites in CA markets.
Jan 14, 2019, 4:53 pm
#64
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 5,956
Not sure what VX has to do with the competition at present as obviously they are gone and whatever margins they had pre-Mint have only gotten worse on these routes since AS took over.
At some point rather than dwelling on the past, you have to face the reality of the present
At some point rather than dwelling on the past, you have to face the reality of the present
In case you forgot:
Jan 14, 2019, 9:48 pm
#65
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I think the more likely end is via a merger that meaningfully changes their network or strategy.
Jan 14, 2019, 10:05 pm
#66
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I agree it’s not sustainable, but I’m not sure that over-saturation of AS elites is what ends it, at least not as the airline is currently structured. Their network ex-SFO is quite bad, so it’s not attractive to most business travelers. Forget UA, their network is arguably worse than AA or DL. And they’ll be expanding the F cabin from 8 to 12/16, which will soak up some elite growth.
I think the more likely end is via a merger that meaningfully changes their network or strategy.
I do love the “clearly worst airline that ever airlined” we keep coming back to, though.
Jan 15, 2019, 7:05 am
#67
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who is this “we” of whom you speak? seems like just the regular handful of overly nostalgic VX alumni who are still in denial as to the financial/economic realities behind the AS acquisition of their beloved airline
Jan 15, 2019, 9:41 am
#68
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Anyone who follows a thread and has these points come up over and over again?
Look, I get it. I liked the white leather seats too. I don’t adore the consolidation in the industry. “Blah Airlines” was cute.
But FT generally underweights LCCs and overweights premium cabins. It’s what we do because we’re not “kettles”. Meanwhile airlines drool over the money NK and FR make on ancillaries.
Look, I get it. I liked the white leather seats too. I don’t adore the consolidation in the industry. “Blah Airlines” was cute.
But FT generally underweights LCCs and overweights premium cabins. It’s what we do because we’re not “kettles”. Meanwhile airlines drool over the money NK and FR make on ancillaries.
Jan 15, 2019, 10:51 am
#69
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: SFO
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Yes, my assumption is that the most likely eventual tie-up is B6 + AS. But who knows.
I do love the “clearly worst airline that ever airlined” we keep coming back to, though.
I am willing, for the moment, to take routings like SFO-PDX-ATL or “SFO-AUS-drive to Houston” or “SFO-ORD-Saluki (Amtrak) to CMI.” But I realize that puts me in a very small minority of travelers, frequent or otherwise. So I just don’t see massive elite growth materializing in the near future. Unless your travel is focused on PNW, SoCal, and NYC, the routes and frequencies ex-SFO just aren’t there.
Also, for the record, I did not fly VX pre-merger.
Jan 15, 2019, 11:28 am
#70
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Their network ex-SFO isn't any worse than ex-LAX, ex-SJC, ex-SAN- heavy on PNW, Mexico and Hawaii, light on flying into US3 territory like ATL/IAH/MSP. If anything in SFO their network is better than LAX/SJC/SAN; they just don't try and do 3x into a US 3 midcon hub where they have ZERO connectivity beyond it. I don't think they're planning on leaving those other cities either; AS seems to think they can make those work by grinding it out bit by bit. And that was also largely what VX did as well- it's not like they ever had ATL/IAH/MSP/DTW/CLE service... if anything AS has been willing to try things like SFO-BNA/MCI or LAX/SAN-BWI that VX never did (I always wondered why "California's airline" never tried much of anything outside of SFO/LAX in California, except for SJC-LAX, which everyone and their uncle flies for garbage yields).
Jan 15, 2019, 12:11 pm
#71
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Location: MIA
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The point is that AS does have a differentiated offering on these routes. They were the only ones selling a domestic F seat. But they are charging the same as lieflat.
This is an issue that is hitting several airlines on several routes, not just AS. B6 has lieflat on NYC-LAS and NYC-SAN. Hawaiian has lieflat on some West Coast - Hawaii routes. Now of course we can sit here and theorize that AS has a wonderful strategy and they're very smart, and the Big3 have a wonderful strategy against B6 on these routes. In reality airlines have 3 options:
(1) Ignore the lieflat competition and see if elites stick with them for y-ups etc
(2) Exit the route
(3) Charge less for domestic F than lieflat
We are seeing a lot of #1 , a bit of #2 and very little #3 . However, I think we are going to start to see some #3 . Lieflat is becoming more prevalent with B6 Mint expansion, buyers are becoming more sophisticated with tools like Google flights that show seat type, and now we have the new development that airlines are starting to fly domestic scheduled service with wide bodies that have both lieflat and domestic F on the same aircraft.
This is an issue that is hitting several airlines on several routes, not just AS. B6 has lieflat on NYC-LAS and NYC-SAN. Hawaiian has lieflat on some West Coast - Hawaii routes. Now of course we can sit here and theorize that AS has a wonderful strategy and they're very smart, and the Big3 have a wonderful strategy against B6 on these routes. In reality airlines have 3 options:
(1) Ignore the lieflat competition and see if elites stick with them for y-ups etc
(2) Exit the route
(3) Charge less for domestic F than lieflat
We are seeing a lot of #1 , a bit of #2 and very little #3 . However, I think we are going to start to see some #3 . Lieflat is becoming more prevalent with B6 Mint expansion, buyers are becoming more sophisticated with tools like Google flights that show seat type, and now we have the new development that airlines are starting to fly domestic scheduled service with wide bodies that have both lieflat and domestic F on the same aircraft.
Jan 15, 2019, 12:14 pm
#72
Join Date: Dec 2004
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Regardless, I'm not saying that they can't "make it work." I'm simply saying that I wouldn't expect them to capture a large number of "elites" ex-SFO. I suspect they don't capture them ex-LAX either, but I'm less familiar with that market.
Jan 15, 2019, 12:14 pm
#73
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Jan 15, 2019, 12:22 pm
#74
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: SFO
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Posts: 1,158
I suspect you're right. The US3 are aggressively pursuing FCM, so it's hard to see AS bucking that trend indefinitely. And if they've got a less competitive product on these routes, that only increases the pressure to discount it. Lower prices (and thus more paid F tickets) could put more pressure on upgrades ex-SFO than a swelling of the elite ranks.
Jan 15, 2019, 12:39 pm
#75
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For AUS, it was actually only a half hour longer. It was a 2h15m drive from AUS to our destination, but it takes almost an hour to drive from IAH to our destination (a southwestern suburb), SFO-IAH is 40 minutes longer than SFO-AUS (gate-to-gate), and it just takes longer to navigate through IAH itself and get the car. My wife was initially skeptical, but after doing it once she's on board.
For CMI, I was going to lose the whole day to travel regardless. Fortunately I can work pretty much anywhere I can sit, be it the train or the airport lounge. Plus I just like the train.