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Old Mar 12, 2018, 10:20 pm
  #1  
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Pilots informed of quarterly loss & training freeze

How things have changed for ALK. I'm told ALK pilots were informed in an internal e-mail from Ben Minicucci that AAG will post its first loss in 7 years. Additionally pilot hiring and training will be shelved until the fall at the earliest, minus the group(s) already in the process.

Given this, along with the reduction in SFO flying, although rather slight, the pressure on BT and BM and his management will only increase - and criticism that these guys are not cut for the right cloth to manage this merger will only grow.
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Old Mar 12, 2018, 10:32 pm
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Yeah...for weeks now I've been thinking that AS will be really stupid if it gets rid of the VX A320 fleet, because having experience with the A320 is going to make the eventual merger with B6 that much easier...
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Old Mar 12, 2018, 10:53 pm
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Glad I didn't buy ALK when it was in the $80>$90 range.

Isn't there already a pilot shortage???
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Old Mar 12, 2018, 11:09 pm
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This is a shame. But not surprising given what we've seen.

As a 75K in SFO, I am honestly confused what AS brings to the table to the Bay Area. Without the AA/DL partnership, they cannot claim to have cobbled together the equivalent of a full-size network carrier (i.e., the UA alternative that they initially started playing up). Fine, so now we're onto "leisure enthusiasts." Well, with enough travel under their belts, AS doesn't exactly go to too many exciting places that Bay Area enthusiasts like to go (e.g., Europe, Asia, South America). Hawaii and some Mexico cities (MEX if you're willing to connect, or the two main Costa Rica towns if you can make your schedule work with the days they alternate flying to) doesn't cut it in terms of breadth for the demographic that I'd consider a Bay Area "enthusiast."

I hardly flew VX, but I knew EXACTLY what they brought to the table. A cool airline, with a different way of doing things, that was fun to fly. Yeah, they didn't go everywhere, but if they went where you need to go, people wanted to fly them (sort of like jetBlue). AS took the likability out of the equation with the announced dissolution of the Virgin brand and the cabin downgrades with plans to return it to blah airline service, not materially different than UA/AA/DL, all of whom have a greater breadth of service.

It's unfortunate that they have spent so much to get into the SFO market and have really not positioned themselves in a manner where even their regular customers know what they offer.
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Old Mar 13, 2018, 12:04 am
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https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/a...bms-email.html

Sounds like it's training for AS & VX, unclear about QX where the pilot shortage was.
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Old Mar 13, 2018, 6:29 am
  #6  
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Alaska has been warning that implementation of new revenue recognition standards for Mileage Plan will result in a downward restatement. A quarterly loss would seem to be more than this, however.

From the 2017 Annual report:

On January 1, 2018 we will implement ASU 2014-09, "Revenue from Contracts with Customers," and ASU 2017-07, "Compensation- Retirement Benefits." We have elected to apply both standards using the full retrospective approach, which will require us to restate prior period financial information under the new standards.
...
As a result of the new revenue recognition standard, we expect to restate 2017 and 2016 financial information in our future filings. We expect 2017 reported revenues will be reduced by approximately $41 million, and reported non-fuel operating costs will increase by approximately $13 million, resulting in a net reduction of $54 million to reported adjusted pretax profit. We expect a similar impact in 2018.
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Old Mar 13, 2018, 8:01 am
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Stock is up 2% this morning. Must be a real secret...
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Old Mar 13, 2018, 11:38 am
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Originally Posted by n7371f
How things have changed for ALK. I'm told ALK pilots were informed in an internal e-mail from Ben Minicucci that AAG will post its first loss in 7 years.
I am not an expert in this, but I find it somewhat hard to believe that material (to the stock price) information like this would be shared internally with a large group of employees before it is publicly released.
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Old Mar 13, 2018, 11:50 am
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Originally Posted by notquiteaff
I am not an expert in this, but I find it somewhat hard to believe that material (to the stock price) information like this would be shared internally with a large group of employees before it is publicly released.
Agree, as a member of the financial reporting team of publicly traded company, nobody that doesn't need to know, should know. In addition, if pilots were sharing this information on a message board before the street was informed, it would be a violation of SEC insider trading rules.
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Old Mar 13, 2018, 12:04 pm
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Nothing new here. Consensus is/has been a first quarter loss of $0.12.
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Old Mar 13, 2018, 12:19 pm
  #11  
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Originally Posted by n7371f
How things have changed for ALK. I'm told ALK pilots were informed in an internal e-mail from Ben Minicucci that AAG will post its first loss in 7 years. Additionally pilot hiring and training will be shelved until the fall at the earliest, minus the group(s) already in the process.

Given this, along with the reduction in SFO flying, although rather slight, the pressure on BT and BM and his management will only increase - and criticism that these guys are not cut for the right cloth to manage this merger will only grow.
Spreading that kind of info can lead to insider trading, and/or possibly open FT up to a lawsuit.
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Old Mar 13, 2018, 12:19 pm
  #12  
TA
 
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Originally Posted by gobeavs8
...In addition, if pilots were sharing this information on a message board before the street was informed, it would be a violation of SEC insider trading rules.
No, insider trading is where someone with access to material information inside the company tips off or acts on that information (or allows a friend, acquaintance, or family member) to trade to their advantage.

This is just a leak.
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Old Mar 13, 2018, 12:21 pm
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Originally Posted by flytoeat
Nothing new here. Consensus is/has been a first quarter loss of $0.12.
Consensus among stock professionals in one thing, but leaking info from an internal memo is a bit different
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Old Mar 13, 2018, 12:25 pm
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Originally Posted by TA
No, insider trading is where someone with access to material information inside the company tips off or acts on that information (or allows a friend, acquaintance, or family member) to trade to their advantage.

This is just a leak.
Yes that is the definition of insider trading but "tiping" which this would qualify as regardless if it's intentional or not or is acted upon, falls under the realm of insider trading laws.
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Old Mar 13, 2018, 12:34 pm
  #15  
 
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Originally Posted by mvoight
Spreading that kind of info can lead to insider trading, and/or possibly open FT up to a lawsuit.
FT is a public forum for which one doesn't even need an account to read (the vast majority of it, including - relevantly - this forum)...
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