channa

Yup, and given AS's relative size, it's not uncommon for people to credit OALs when flying AS (and vice versa). The DL or AA FFer would fly AS from time to time and vice versa.

And now that they have SFO and LAX, the market of high volume travelers is much more significant. These customers need frequency and breadth of network. AS's marketing in the Bay Area has been around how the network of partners plus them makes them a viable airline. Losing DL and now AA is a massive hit. It's a disproportionately big hit in the Bay Area and LAX since we have no codeshares on AA metal out of SFO/LAX, and limited proper AS service out of SFO.

As far as I can tell, you cannot connect from VX to AA on a single ticket, even if the VX flight is coded as AS. That means the bulk of SFO or LAX AS/VX service that would get you to an AA hub (ORD/DFW/JFK/PHL, they don't serve MIA/PHX/CLT) is unusable for AS connections. So despite AS claiming to have codeshare options out of ORD/DFW/etc. on AA, the two major customer bases that they paid dearly for are simply unable to use them.

If AS wants to try to bridge this gap, they need SFO-DFW/MIA/ORD/JFK on AS metal with connectivity to AA codeshares.

BearX220

Remember the main gain that motivated the VX deal: JetBlue didn't get it. AS bought itself a little scale and a little time. Had B6-VX occurred, it would have been an existential threat to AS. Everything else was secondary, including all your valid points.

So, the good news is, AS/VX and B6 will have roughly co-equal scale. The bad news is, AS/VX presents a giant digestion challenge that was repelling customers in California anyway, and has just been made worse throughout Alaskaland.

channa

Next question, what about AA-coded AS-operated domestic flights? Will we really get no miles for those, despite being AS-operated?

I see AS metal flights that are much cheaper on the AA code than the AS code.

BearX220

Hypothesis: you won't be rewarded for source-shopping lowest price.

Baze

Will these continue to exist after Jan 1st?

beckoa

Afaik code sharing isn't going away. So probably yes.

fly18725

This is an interesting discussion and one point that's been ignored is that there can be different definitions of loyalist. Customers that are primarily loyal to Mileage Plan may be profitable, particularly if they have a credit card, but they are fickle. Their loyalty and satisfaction depends on AS' partners.

Customers that fly AS because the network fits their travel patterns are the type of loyal customers AS really wants. AS gets more control over these customers' experience and whether their satisfied or not. These customers will not be as fickle and will almost certainly be higher margin.

I think the evolution of the airline means that some previously loyal customers will be willingly let go in exchange for targeting more suitable customers that actually earn status with butts in AS seats.

Why is AS at a greater disadvantage to customers in the Bay Area and LAX than VX was prior to the merger? VX had no domestic partners and less network utility.

Eastbay1K

But we knew that "going in" and VX was a secondary program for many of us, or if it was the primary program, we had a secondary program. AS was the other program for many of us. It was bad enough that I had to join DL earlier this year just to bank a pittance of time-to-time points. Now I may have to add a OW member.

Adelphos

A bit off topic, but thanks to someone I believe in this thread, I became aware of the 25,000 point JFK to LAX transcons and booked one for my GF for an upcoming trip

I'm doing a work trip to CA and have to fly from LAX to SFO. I wasn't aware that Alaska elites (I'm a matched MVP Gold) didn't get preferential seats. If I book Virgin on that flight, can I still credit it to AA this year?

golfingboy

Nope - only AS metal can be credited to AA.

Yellowjj

So any AA flights booked after July 6th for the rest of 2017, still earns on AS right?

milypan

Be careful what you wish for. If AS introduces long-haul international flights, it will be much harder for them to retain a distance-based rewards program. The stage lengths are too long, and the competition to Europe and Asia has become very fierce.

I don't really get why the domestic-leg exclusion is the straw that breaks the camel's back. The vast majority of AA fares sold these days only earn 25-50% miles anyway. If that didn't already deter you, why now? Are you always booking premium cabins or last-minute fares?

drewcwsj

I fly international business, I and D fares, where the connecting flights yield 150% EQMs. That is why this matters.

channa

VX is a niche carrier and never positioned itself beyond that.

Based on AS's own marketing, they've been saying us + the partners = the big network. They're positioning themselves, at least in the Bay Area, as a viable alternative to UA for everything. They're after the frequent traveler who many need to go anywhere. And up until they lost AA, that was for the most part, true.

But that just changed with losing AA domestic. They literally took the vast majority of secondary markets off the map for Bay Area customers since there's no viable way to get there from the Bay Area.

Now if you only go to Top 10 major domestic markets (minus MIA and ATL), this announcement is a non issue. But then again, those people were not likely flying AA to begin with.

Remember that much of what AS serves out of SEA is not practical for SFO/LAX customers. SEA is too far out of the way to connect, not to mention, they often don't price those as connections even if you were willing to tolerate the inconvenience. Midwest/East Coast that require a connection are often better served on UA, AA, or DL over AS. That wasn't a problem with the AA partnership. That is a problem now.

They've made their program very difficult to use for many high-volume travelers.

MDtR-Chicago

A lot of west coast flyers qualify on segments. I can personally live with 50% RDM as long as I get the full segment. AA (or DL) has always rounded out my
qualification journey nicely. Anyway, with 500 mile minimum, there are quite a few destinations where you're only losing a few hundred miles anyway.