If I were to hazard a guess, I would note that the other main examples of bonkers-expensive J pricing have been on a few cases of routes where it's seemed pretty unlikely that those flights are going to operate as scheduled - like YVR-SYD this April.

When I look at YVR-ZRH in late June, the business pricing for that direct is consistently WAY higher than the routing through YYZ/YUL. I would personally be shocked to see nearly enough demand for a YVR-ZRH direct in 2021, period, and I'm wondering if the reason Y doesn't also cost a ton on those flights is that there's more and easier capacity to rebook Y pax through FRA or LHR (or YYZ or YUL) than there would be for J, so there's little risk in letting Y seats out the door now.

That's just me guessing though. I wouldn't be surprised to hear other, more plausible answers.

Uber doesn't file prices in advance. It's derived on-demand based on a variety of factors. Airlines and hotels do file prices in advance. You can go to EF and see the fares filed by an airline on a route, and they have prices, dates, conditions, etc. As I said, to dynamically change prices by tracking user searches would be not impossible, but infeasible.

If this were actually a thing it would be so trivial to prove just by bringing up a private browser on a different IP that it would be well-documented by now.

Obviously with points, things are more flexible. However, I suspect that given how this all ties into the same concept of fare basis, fare buckets, etc, that the system is ultimately subject to most of the rigid factors that make this infeasible for cash tickets.

And very disappointed to see than the calendar view is gone now to. PITA to have to search manually day by day...but certainly not surprising: it's AC after all.

You're missing the point. The specific flight you looked at would not have been available in the old program. Only select flights were available before. Every flight is available now, albeit at prices that correlate to cash prices and fare class availability.

Every flight that would have been available before is available now around the low end of the published range.

I'm not sure if that's true with advanced purchase requirements.

I once redeemed YYZ-RDU for 7500 miles one way (non priority). Cash price was over $1200. I think the new program will always price high $$$ flights high, even if there are lots of empty seats. Maybe I'm wrong?

You're right, that can affect it. But if X is available, I'm not seeing prices as outrageous as WestonC mentioned, even looking for flights tomorrow.

Definitely outrageous (well outside the published range), but not 37k.

But you do bring up a fair point that last minute bookings are going to be heavily penalized, though I suspect that was part of their goal. They really want to disincentivize using 7500 points for must-fly last-minute business trips.

i understand the new program and dynamic pricing. I have booked these exact flights on the exact days in the past for yearly medical visits. I know the new program is different. It used to cost 15K in points. Now it’s over 30K. Although I just checked now and it’s surprisingly lower. 29,700 points plus $88. So yes, in my opinion that is a ridiculous increase for 2 short 45 minute flights on a dash 8.

i know your points may come up different but feel free to check for yourself. Dec 15 YMM-YEG. Dec 17 YEG-YMM

If I buy YMM-YEG right now on 72 hours' notice, the cash fare is $824 round-trip. If I book two weeks out, the same round-trip costs $412.

If I book YMM-YEG right now, on 72 hours' notice, it's 29,300 points round-trip. If I book two weeks out, the same round-trip costs 10,200.


Those two short 45-minute flights on a Dash 8 don't exist right now - and if they did, they'd each cost ~5,100 points too, booked two weeks to a year in advance.

You're right, the arbitrage opportunity for last-minute bookings is not what it was in the award chart released 5 years ago, although I would argue that 29,300 points for $736 saved vs, buying cash is still pretty solid value.

...but you're presenting the edge case of your last-minute booking as if that's the permanent, fixed cost for "two 45-minute flights", when in reality the cost has gone *down* 30% for all but the last-minute traveler.

If you love the new program, or hate the new program, there are facts to justify both. You don't need to exaggerate to get your point across.

I am not exaggerating. No idea why anyone would. I started looking at these flights about 3 weeks ago and they were over 30K in points. I have been checking daily. Surprisingly they are down today.

yes this is a ridiculous amount of points for 2 x 45 minute flights. And that is because the cost for cash is also ridiculous. The sad reality is that the last minute high pricing is how airlines like to make their money but I believe that if they actually had better last minute pricing more people would be flying last minute and they could potentially make more money.

we recently had Flair Air start flying here toYMM. I can fly YMM-YVR-YEG and return for less than a one way AC YMM-YEG. I know that would be crazy but it is what it is. Hehe. And just to note residents here get a discount on Flair so those prices won’t show up online.

I get the dynamic pricing but last year I could book the exact same flights for much less points whether last minute or 3 weeks out. That’s how the average non FT traveller will see it.

You're absolutely exaggerating. First off, you keep talking about "two 45-minute flights", when neither AC nor Westjet are offering that right now.

When you look ahead to the part of the year when the schedule DOES return to two 45-minute flights, the award cost goes back down to 10,x00 points return, considerably less than the amount you previously considered fair.

Your argument here is that on the topic of last-minute pricing, airline revenue-management departments, scanning decades of data, can't stack up to your hunch?

Hey, if you're lucky they'll even have a working aircraft available that day!


Yes, your edge case does get more expensive when booking on two days' notice. When booking 3 weeks out, the price is 30% lower than it was under the old program.

It's a win for people who can plan ahead, and a loss for people who can't. As you appear firmly committed to the second group, the new program probably isn't good news for you.

How does Westjet's program stack up on the same route?

Well you seem like a person who likes to argue rather than help us along but you are absolutely WRONG. I am not exaggerating. When I started researching these flights a few weeks ago I was quoted over 37K points. There is no exaggeration there and perhaps I should have taken a screen shot to prove it but you seem to know better than what the app was showing me for points.

I'm not more knowledgeable than the airlines regarding last minute pricing. I did say 'I believe' which I meant as it is my opinion. Years ago when there was last minute discounts I and my friends would hop on flights for weekend getaways. So in my opinion I do believe more people would fly if the prices were lower than they are these days at the last minute. Just my opinion.

I agree with Flair - not my choice to fly them. I only tried them once this summer for a getaway to Vancouver Island. Service wise, everything was exactly the same as AC or WS except that it was non-stop to YVR from YMM and on a lovely 737 instead of a Dash 8. But I don't think I would really choose them again due to the potential of MX and not being able to fly on my chosen dates. But they are the only airline currently flying non-stop between YMM and YVR or YYZ (I think AC has stopped their flights to YYZ from YMM but I could be wrong).

I'm not firmly committed to last minute booking. I started looking at this flight over 3 weeks ago and it was 37K +. Now it is lower. BUT - I opened the app again just now since you are so firm on accusing me of exagerating that I may have found the issue. I did not realize this was part of the app because I was just quickly checking for flights. Perhaps I if was not so quick I would have realize they are all rlgiths routed through YYC as you noted above that they are not non-stop. What I see now is that we can tap on a selection for 'Redemption Level'. This now brings up a lower amount of points required with a higher cash payment or a higher amount of points with no cash payment. I see it shows no cash with a point level of 38,546 required for redemption. Perhaps this is what I was seeing. I really don't know because I didn't know there were all these options.

So thank you for all of the information as now I know more about the app. Perhaps replying with kindness would have been better and asking if I knew about those features rather than accusing me of exaggeration,

Happy Saturday all!

What help were you looking for? I've never so much as hinted that the search results you found aren't real - I confirmed the 29,x00 one myself - and I've agreed that the new program didn't sound like it was covering your specific need very well.

...but you've taken a couple of bad search results as if they represent the whole year, and that's just not at all accurate.

Now that you've told us you don't need to book last-minute, I honestly think things can actually work better for you, not worse, and that as long as you book at least 14 days in advance you'll actually pay less than you used to, not more.

Here's a few examples from the near future:


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...584a3d076b.png


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...fa53437aa6.png



https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...d0a6b2b68f.png



Heck, even booking next week, it's still only a little higher than the old rules:


https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...20e55656e6.png


One of the big advantages of the old program was predictability: you knew exactly how many miles you'd pay to get from A to B. Lots of people hate the new variable pricing, and that's understandable, but that doesn't automatically mean the whole thing is worse across the board, even when looking at the same route.

You've mentioned in your last post that once you read a little closer, the things that looked outrageous get a lot less outrageous once you read a little deeper, and I think you''ll find this continues to be true.

I do agree with you that the "pay the taxes with points" option doesn't represent terribly good value.

What? Have you not been reading the AC marketing material? They now have PREDICTABLE PRICING. They did not have PREDICTABLE PRICING before.

And here I thought you had inside contacts or something :p

If you were expecting me to parrot the marketing material, I'm likely to disappoint, but you'd be the first person asking me to do so.

:D

Thanks for your reply. Perhaps I wasn't clear in my question in my post. I wasn't trying to understand AC's algorithm logic (?), or some other mystery of the AC universe, as to why the mileage for the YYZ-YVR-ZRH routing was so high.

My boredom-induced search was random YYZ-ZRH. My curiosity was not why AC would return a result like YYZ-YVR-ZRH, or even why the points needed in J could be almost 500,000. It was why would anyone want to spend those kind of points when YYZ-ZRH was showing approximately 65,000 points. It's not a paid MR. It's not a routing offered on an AC FP. It just struck me as rather odd. Thanks.

Entirely my mistake, I misread your question.

I believe the answer to the question you *did* ask:

...is simply that the new program is *supposed* to show any seat you can buy with cash, but still requires some fine-tuning as far as which are the 'reasonable' options to filter out, for example when one option is ~7 times the cost of another,

As you point out, YYZ-YVR-ZRH seems a bit unnecessary, just as few would be mad if a YYZ-YVR search omitted a technically-valid YYZ-YWG-YYC-YVR.

Then again, that YVR routing would permit a connection of up to 24 hours. But what kind of crazy person would fly several hours in business class, just to head right back the other way? :D

Saw a better one :D
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...ac9a377445.gif

Come on, don't tease us like that, what was it?

It's fun though solving puzzles. SE (MM but shouldn't matter) with premium CC, it's a whopping 100k less.

Ok here's clue # 1. Includes 21% in F/C cabin :p

Here's another clue: C2.5-C6
https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...c628da3813.gif

Thought my last clue C2.5-C6 would do it for you :D. Anyway here you go, AUH-SYD in F (21%) later in year.

Are we becoming the Trick It thread now? More codes to memorize ....

Oh come on, you can handle more codes than what the other thread suggests. View it similar to R games lol

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...e456b674b3.png

:p

The Oceania flights are especially ridiculous (and highly variable).

Premium Economy is more than Business Class.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...4fe35cd0fa.png

If anyone wants a glimpse into the future when planes are semi-full again and what AC domestic pricing will be like.
The age of 200k+ one-way transcons is closer than you think.

Interestingly when you hidden-city the top one to YYJ - the price comes down to a bargain 107.9k (E35+credit card)


https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...0343638ff0.jpg

Date?

April 9. 2 weeks from now.

If this is happening now, can you imagine what its going to be like when planes are full?

Hasn't AC currently cut even YYZ-YVR down until the flights are mostly full?

That 8:55 flight is J9 C8 D6 Z0 P0 R2

The 18:15 flight is J5 C4 D2 Z1 P0 R0 - I'm not saying this proves one thing or another, just posting it for reference.

...but I'm curious why the one unsold seat on that 2:30 PM isn't available with points. "Every seat, every flight" and all that.

Minor detail that may or may not matter: April 9 mentioned above is the Friday before the start of the delayed ON spring break week of April 12 (moved from March this year).

Exactly. And I expect that pricing to be the norm during busy times. Imagine the surprise for a family trying to see mickey on March break.

Not terribly dissimilar to the surprise the same family would have felt in previous years, when there simply weren't any award seats available that week to see Mickey at all - unless you felt like paying hundreds of thousands of points for "Market Fare".

So, timing...supply/demand/capacity......sprinkling of dynamic pricing, or not

Here are random dates in March, April and May.
Points showing on these screen shots are NOT logged in and are non-stop YYZ-YVR only.


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...e86a2870f5.png


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...08833eae80.png



https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...b0a1cdffdf.png

Planes are full, which is likely part of the issue. The schedule has been gutted. The last few I have been have been particularly packed.

No doubt. I booked this flight when it was 23.7k in J. Then all flights got collapsed, and seats became scarce.

The reason I posted this in this thread is to highlight that dynamic pricing will lead to absurd point requirements on AC metal.
It remains to be seen whether there will be more or less low-level AC seats available than before the takeover. My bet is on less.

​​​​​​That's a guess. We've certainly seen some examples of that, but very often with a 25,000-point flight at 8 AM, and a 95,000-point flight on an identical flight at 8:45.

​​​​​​...with all due respect, your predictions are consistently among the most pessimistic in this community in any given AC-related scenario.

Considering the new program has launched amid the biggest disruption to global air travel since the Wright Brothers, I don't believe enough reliable data exists to call this one in either direction yet, and I think any data of that type is a bare minimum of six months away.

Keep in mind as I say this that since November I've been flagging things like 4x cost discrepancies between identical flights 45 minutes apart, I'm by no means predicting everything's going to turn out sunshine and lollipops.

I just think you're trying to extrapolate from non-representative data, is all.

​​​​​

I hope you are right and that it will be sunshine and lolipops with AC dynamic pricing.
My experience trying to spend my SkyMiles leads me to believe the opposite.

Booked priority rewards
 

Just booked 4 priority rewards from YKA-YYC-FRA-BCN and return from MAD-FRA-YYC-YKA. All business (I) class for about 60,000 points each plus $200 in fees/taxes per ticket. Pretty good deal I think. It's for next February but I can cancel if I need to.

Welcome to FT :)

So, the tickets were about 120K round trip before the priority reward discount?

Thanks! Closing in on million mile status. Wish I'd signed up here a long time ago.

Just re-looked at the points and it came out to 76250 per ticket with the 50% discount. So they would have been 152,500 before the discount. Still a good deal I think.