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Could AC Buy Transat? 16May19 Update: AC enters into agreement to buy Transat

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Could AC Buy Transat? 16May19 Update: AC enters into agreement to buy Transat

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Old May 16, 2019, 11:10 am
  #91  
 
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Originally Posted by YXUFlyboy
It does if the combined entity controls 80% of the market. Air Transat has huge operations in Montreal, and so does Air Canada. Most of the other airlines operating are international and most are Star Alliance, which means they are all immunized against anti-trust. I can't see how prices don't go up in that market for leisure travel.
I have neither the time, inclination nor ability to read Transat’s financials in depth. However if they were losing money then it was only a matter of time before prices went up anyway. Having investors subsidize travel for consumers is not a sustainable proposition. They are two second rate airlines merging or playing games big deal. We will be left with one or two second rate airlines. And to the poster that said AC wouldn’t play game: get a grip. The ink isn’t even dry on the AE acquisition which was a game from the get go and if not illegal then certainly unethical. If our regulatory bodies had any teeth at all there should have been an investigation into that deal. And frankly that deal will impact a lot more impact to a lot more consumers that A potential Transat deal.
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Old May 16, 2019, 11:23 am
  #92  
 
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Hey at least TS already has a deal ready with Aeroplan so that part is already ironed out!
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Old May 16, 2019, 11:32 am
  #93  
 
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The Competition Bureau has to consider the reality that if TS dies off then there will be reduced competition too, at least until some rich guy wants to turn $100 mil in to $1 mil.
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Old May 16, 2019, 11:51 am
  #94  
 
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Originally Posted by tecate55
As were talking about break fees, my speculation was that Onex’s intention was to lock up Westjet and just pay the break fee and cancel the deal if they couldn’t grab Transat too.

maybe AC isn’t serious, but it’s their way of driving up the cost of Onex’s potential plan to buy Transat. Or maybe AC never wanted Transat, but they’d rather take Transat so Onex doesn’t.
Those are a lot of break fees to pay for being a spoiler. Personally, I don't think Onex wanted Transat and AC is only doing it to reduce competition.
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Old May 16, 2019, 12:05 pm
  #95  
 
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Originally Posted by cirrusdragoon
I wonder what the competition bureau will think of this combination and what concessions it would demand in order for them to approve?
When the Canada Transport Act was modernized, one of the changes was to make the Transport Minister the final arbiter of whether a merger goes ahead. The Competition Bureau creates a report to the Minister that the Minister may accept or reject or come up with their own solution.

I suspect that part of the 2 recent deals is because there is now a good chance for a change in government come October 21, 2019. The liberals inserted this section (which only applies to airlines) for a reason, both Onex and AC are using it too their advantage.
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Old May 16, 2019, 12:11 pm
  #96  
 
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Originally Posted by tecate55
As were talking about break fees, my speculation was that Onex’s intention was to lock up Westjet and just pay the break fee and cancel the deal if they couldn’t grab Transat too.

maybe AC isn’t serious, but it’s their way of driving up the cost of Onex’s potential plan to buy Transat. Or maybe AC never wanted Transat, but they’d rather take Transat so Onex doesn’t.
I believe AC are better business operators than to decide to purchase Transat for the reason noted above. Look what happened to Alaska. They bought Virgin America to keep it out of JetBlue's hands, and have been suffering miserably as a result.
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Old May 16, 2019, 12:11 pm
  #97  
 
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Originally Posted by jasdou
Hey at least TS already has a deal ready with Aeroplan so that part is already ironed out!
That agreement was terminated when AC purchased Aeroplan.
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Old May 16, 2019, 12:15 pm
  #98  
 
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Originally Posted by YXUFlyboy
Most of the other airlines operating are international and most are Star Alliance, which means they are all immunized against anti-trust. I can't see how prices don't go up in that market for leisure travel.
That is certainly not the case. AC has joint ventures with a few Star carriers in a few markets, but apart from that all alliance members remain competitors from an anti-trust point of view.
Prices have to go up - Transat is losing money and their business model is not sustainable. There's no part of fixing with or without AC that doesn't including raising prices or discontinuing routes. If routes/frequencies are discontinued then prices will naturally increase in the market due to less competition.
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Old May 16, 2019, 12:23 pm
  #99  
 
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Originally Posted by cedric
That agreement was terminated when AC purchased Aeroplan.
I am well aware. My comment was made tongue-in-cheek. Carry on.
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Old May 16, 2019, 12:42 pm
  #100  
 
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Originally Posted by cedric
That is certainly not the case. AC has joint ventures with a few Star carriers in a few markets, but apart from that all alliance members remain competitors from an anti-trust point of view.
Prices have to go up - Transat is losing money and their business model is not sustainable. There's no part of fixing with or without AC that doesn't including raising prices or discontinuing routes. If routes/frequencies are discontinued then prices will naturally increase in the market due to less competition.
I do not think AC competes with *A at all on major international routes to and from Canada. Look at the recent move of Austrian from YYZ to YUL, so that AC could start its own route. It is all well orchestrated. Yes, YVR-AKL is a notable exception, but AC and NZ are only partners in name. For most TATL/TPAC routes AC actively cooperates with *A partners and others. In the end, we will see higher fares in YUL. Sure, fares probably needed to go up to ensure Transat's continued survival. Now they will go up even more to ensure Air Canada's continued profitability ;-)
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Old May 16, 2019, 1:21 pm
  #101  
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https://montrealgazette.com/business...-to-air-canada

QUEBEC — Quebec Premier François Legault said he felt some emotion on hearing Air Transat — the company he co-founded — might be sold to Air Canada.

Air Canada was a competitor when he was at the head of Air Transat. But he said the good news is that Air Canada is a Canadian company with its head office in Montreal, which means it might be good for the province.

“It’s a lot of emotion for me because of course I was there for the first flight of Air Transat with all the employees crying with joy,” Legault said. “That was about 30 years ago.
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Old May 16, 2019, 1:38 pm
  #102  
 
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Originally Posted by YXUFlyboy
I do not think AC competes with *A at all on major international routes to and from Canada. Look at the recent move of Austrian from YYZ to YUL, so that AC could start its own route. It is all well orchestrated. Yes, YVR-AKL is a notable exception, but AC and NZ are only partners in name. For most TATL/TPAC routes AC actively cooperates with *A partners and others. In the end, we will see higher fares in YUL. Sure, fares probably needed to go up to ensure Transat's continued survival. Now they will go up even more to ensure Air Canada's continued profitability ;-)
Star Alliance is a marketing partnership only. The airlines remain competitors (and must do so, by law), unless specific anti-trust immunization agreements are in place and ratified by regulators.
UA & AC compete on many transborder routes, for instance, and are not able to share data on these.
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Old May 16, 2019, 1:42 pm
  #103  
 
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How much of this can be attributed to an expensive contest between prideful individuals with old grudges? I refer of course to Rovinescu v Schwartz, the rematch.
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Old May 16, 2019, 2:13 pm
  #104  
 
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Originally Posted by YXUFlyboy
I do not think AC competes with *A at all on major international routes to and from Canada. Look at the recent move of Austrian from YYZ to YUL, so that AC could start its own route. It is all well orchestrated. Yes, YVR-AKL is a notable exception, but AC and NZ are only partners in name. For most TATL/TPAC routes AC actively cooperates with *A partners and others. In the end, we will see higher fares in YUL. Sure, fares probably needed to go up to ensure Transat's continued survival. Now they will go up even more to ensure Air Canada's continued profitability ;-)
Air Canada and Lufthansa Group (which includes Austrian) have an immunized joint venture covering Canada-Europe routes (and it also includes United for US-Europe). So those two airlines can legally collaborate on routes and fares. But that's not true for all Star Alliance members, including AC/UA for transborder. They code share but still compete on routes and fares.
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Old May 16, 2019, 4:03 pm
  #105  
 
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Originally Posted by cedric
UA & AC compete on many transborder routes, for instance, and are not able to share data on these.
While not officially, they most certainly have gentleman's agreements on US-Canada routes for major airports and hubs.
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