Flight looks empty - 3 weeks to go (YYC-LHR)
 

I'm pretty much just curious and thinking out loud, not really looking for advice or anything. I have just booked YYC-LHR for December 1 through Aeroplan and I noticed while booking that a good 75% of the seats were showing as available. I paid to select seats so I was able to get the ones I wanted, but then it got me thinking. Is there a time in advance that flights of this nature (international, winter, Saturday night red-eye) book up? I know that domestics can sell out up to the time the flight leaves, but how common is that for an international flight? Calgary to London doesn't seem like something that you would typically do last minute. Which also makes me wonder if there are tickets sold but the seats are not assigned with that ticket if the customer doesn't pre-book their seat?

I don't know if I'm making any sense. I always hear about people who flew somewhere and the plane was empty, but it seems like an urban legend to me! Maybe I'm about to experience it for myself?!

Perhaps more a case of people not paying for seat assignments?

I was wondering if that was the case. It's not something I've ever paid attention to before, but it stuck with me how many available seats there were so I went to the Expert Flyer website and it's showing basically what I saw when I bought, which is a whole bunch of available seats. I always thought that if you didn't pay for a seat assignment you would be appointed one upon purchasing but maybe not.

This has nothing to do with amount of seats sold and more about people buying the lowest fare and not paying for seat selection.

As per the others. Advanced seat selection is a "feature" (if you will) and has a price tag. If you don't pay for it, you won't even get a default seat assigned.

Your flight is showing J9 C9 D9 Z9 P9 O8 E7 Y9 B9 M9 U9 H9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9
which still implies a good chance of being wide open, but the next time you see an empty seat map, it doesn't necessarily mean that it is an empty flight.

You're dealing with the off-season, and there is increasing evidence that the economy is turning down severely. 50-60% actual load factors wouldn't surprise me. YYC has few connections from the US, and WS has probably a more aggressive marketing presence.
Remember that it wasn't even 2 decades ago that basically only a single passenger 767 flew transatlantic daily from Alberta in the winter.

YYC has had flights to both FRA and LHR for quite a bit longer than 20 years. Used to be 763s indeed.

I thought the same thing when I went to LHR a couple of weeks ago. Thought I would have an entire row by myself and even left an open seat in between the Mrs and myself...Well that backfired quickly as the plane was packed solid.

I am travelling from LHR - YYZ on Nov 20 (10 days away) currently booked in BIZ on AC 869. The loads for the 4 non-stops that day are currently

AC 869 J9 C9 D9 Z9 P9 R3 O9 E9 N9 Y9 B9 M9 U9 H9 Q9 V9 W9 S9
AC 857 J9 C9 D9 Z9 P7 O7 E7 Y9 B9 M9 U9 H9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9
AC 849 J9 C9 D9 Z9 P9 R4 O9 E9 N5 Y9 B9 M9 U9 H9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9
AC 859 J9 C9 D9 Z9 P9 R4 O9 E9 N5 Y9 B9 M9 U9 H9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9

(The site I am using quotes only non-zero buckets).

These loads would I think come under the general heading of "wide-open," no? Wonder what the chance would be of a couple at least of these being consolidated? How far in advance are such decisions made?

Aeroplan
 

Interesting to note that none of these flights have Aeroplan J available at normal rates and only AC 869 (YQ $ 275.40).
has economy that day.
One stop J is available via FRA (YQ 551.46), MUN (YQ $ 548.96) and WAW (YQ $173.76).

Actually, to LHR, in the nineties they ran aging 741s. And when they received the 343, YYYC-FRA operated on 343s. I few on both back then.

Plus, CP, which earlier flew to AMS from both YYC and YEG, at one point switched to LHR. Not sure if from YEG too.