Flight looks empty - 3 weeks to go (YYC-LHR)
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Nov 2018
Programs: Aeroplan
Posts: 12
Flight looks empty - 3 weeks to go (YYC-LHR)
I'm pretty much just curious and thinking out loud, not really looking for advice or anything. I have just booked YYC-LHR for December 1 through Aeroplan and I noticed while booking that a good 75% of the seats were showing as available. I paid to select seats so I was able to get the ones I wanted, but then it got me thinking. Is there a time in advance that flights of this nature (international, winter, Saturday night red-eye) book up? I know that domestics can sell out up to the time the flight leaves, but how common is that for an international flight? Calgary to London doesn't seem like something that you would typically do last minute. Which also makes me wonder if there are tickets sold but the seats are not assigned with that ticket if the customer doesn't pre-book their seat?
I don't know if I'm making any sense. I always hear about people who flew somewhere and the plane was empty, but it seems like an urban legend to me! Maybe I'm about to experience it for myself?!
I don't know if I'm making any sense. I always hear about people who flew somewhere and the plane was empty, but it seems like an urban legend to me! Maybe I'm about to experience it for myself?!
#3
Original Poster
Join Date: Nov 2018
Programs: Aeroplan
Posts: 12
I was wondering if that was the case. It's not something I've ever paid attention to before, but it stuck with me how many available seats there were so I went to the Expert Flyer website and it's showing basically what I saw when I bought, which is a whole bunch of available seats. I always thought that if you didn't pay for a seat assignment you would be appointed one upon purchasing but maybe not.
#4
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: YYZ
Programs: AC SE MM, Bonvoy Plat, Hilton G,Nexus, Amex MR Plat,IHG Plat
Posts: 4,417
I was wondering if that was the case. It's not something I've ever paid attention to before, but it stuck with me how many available seats there were so I went to the Expert Flyer website and it's showing basically what I saw when I bought, which is a whole bunch of available seats. I always thought that if you didn't pay for a seat assignment you would be appointed one upon purchasing but maybe not.
#5
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: SFO
Programs: *G^2, Bonvoyed, NEXUS
Posts: 3,506
I was wondering if that was the case. It's not something I've ever paid attention to before, but it stuck with me how many available seats there were so I went to the Expert Flyer website and it's showing basically what I saw when I bought, which is a whole bunch of available seats. I always thought that if you didn't pay for a seat assignment you would be appointed one upon purchasing but maybe not.
#6
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: YVR
Programs: AC SE 2MM; UA MP Premier Silver; Marriott Bonvoy LT Titanium Elite; Radisson; Avis PC
Posts: 35,255
I was wondering if that was the case. It's not something I've ever paid attention to before, but it stuck with me how many available seats there were so I went to the Expert Flyer website and it's showing basically what I saw when I bought, which is a whole bunch of available seats. I always thought that if you didn't pay for a seat assignment you would be appointed one upon purchasing but maybe not.
Your flight is showing J9 C9 D9 Z9 P9 O8 E7 Y9 B9 M9 U9 H9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9
which still implies a good chance of being wide open, but the next time you see an empty seat map, it doesn't necessarily mean that it is an empty flight.
#7
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: YXE
Posts: 3,050
You're dealing with the off-season, and there is increasing evidence that the economy is turning down severely. 50-60% actual load factors wouldn't surprise me. YYC has few connections from the US, and WS has probably a more aggressive marketing presence.
Remember that it wasn't even 2 decades ago that basically only a single passenger 767 flew transatlantic daily from Alberta in the winter.
Remember that it wasn't even 2 decades ago that basically only a single passenger 767 flew transatlantic daily from Alberta in the winter.
#8
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: YYC
Posts: 23,797
#9
Suspended
Join Date: Aug 2018
Posts: 669
You're dealing with the off-season, and there is increasing evidence that the economy is turning down severely. 50-60% actual load factors wouldn't surprise me. YYC has few connections from the US, and WS has probably a more aggressive marketing presence.
Remember that it wasn't even 2 decades ago that basically only a single passenger 767 flew transatlantic daily from Alberta in the winter.
Remember that it wasn't even 2 decades ago that basically only a single passenger 767 flew transatlantic daily from Alberta in the winter.
#10
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: YYC
Programs: AC SE, Hilton Gold, Golf Canada Top 3%
Posts: 187
I thought the same thing when I went to LHR a couple of weeks ago. Thought I would have an entire row by myself and even left an open seat in between the Mrs and myself...Well that backfired quickly as the plane was packed solid.
#11
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: YYC, Canada
Programs: AC 35k
Posts: 1,898
Yet we all know a packed plane doesn't mean profitable route. LHR is typically the first route AC adds to an airport (look at YOW) followed by FRA. Both are on 789s or higher. YYC is still an AC hub. It's their smallest by a wide margin but still a hub with TATL and TPAC flights. I rather doubt AC would run them if they were not profitable in winter. In fact this winter LHR should be more profitable with BA's temporary suspension (which runs on a 788).
#12
Join Date: Sep 2017
Programs: AC E50K (MM) FB (Platinum)
Posts: 215
I am travelling from LHR - YYZ on Nov 20 (10 days away) currently booked in BIZ on AC 869. The loads for the 4 non-stops that day are currently
AC 869 J9 C9 D9 Z9 P9 R3 O9 E9 N9 Y9 B9 M9 U9 H9 Q9 V9 W9 S9
AC 857 J9 C9 D9 Z9 P7 O7 E7 Y9 B9 M9 U9 H9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9
AC 849 J9 C9 D9 Z9 P9 R4 O9 E9 N5 Y9 B9 M9 U9 H9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9
AC 859 J9 C9 D9 Z9 P9 R4 O9 E9 N5 Y9 B9 M9 U9 H9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9
(The site I am using quotes only non-zero buckets).
These loads would I think come under the general heading of "wide-open," no? Wonder what the chance would be of a couple at least of these being consolidated? How far in advance are such decisions made?
AC 869 J9 C9 D9 Z9 P9 R3 O9 E9 N9 Y9 B9 M9 U9 H9 Q9 V9 W9 S9
AC 857 J9 C9 D9 Z9 P7 O7 E7 Y9 B9 M9 U9 H9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9
AC 849 J9 C9 D9 Z9 P9 R4 O9 E9 N5 Y9 B9 M9 U9 H9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9
AC 859 J9 C9 D9 Z9 P9 R4 O9 E9 N5 Y9 B9 M9 U9 H9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9
(The site I am using quotes only non-zero buckets).
These loads would I think come under the general heading of "wide-open," no? Wonder what the chance would be of a couple at least of these being consolidated? How far in advance are such decisions made?
#13
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Yul
Programs: AC SE
Posts: 335
Aeroplan
Interesting to note that none of these flights have Aeroplan J available at normal rates and only AC 869 (YQ $ 275.40).
has economy that day.
One stop J is available via FRA (YQ 551.46), MUN (YQ $ 548.96) and WAW (YQ $173.76).
has economy that day.
One stop J is available via FRA (YQ 551.46), MUN (YQ $ 548.96) and WAW (YQ $173.76).
#15
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: YYC
Posts: 23,797
Plus, CP, which earlier flew to AMS from both YYC and YEG, at one point switched to LHR. Not sure if from YEG too.